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Why buybacks look good for companies but hurt investors, Deepak Shenoy breaks down

3 weeks 6 days ago
Share buybacks may boost earnings per share and make companies look leaner, but for most Indian investors, they are a losing proposition, warns Deepak Shenoy, founder of Capital Mind. “For a taxable individual, buybacks are not useful to tender in India,” Shenoy wrote in a social media post on Saturday, breaking down how the tax rules stack the odds against shareholders.“The full amount of the buyback is taxed as dividend. Shares tendered in a buyback are assumed to be sold at zero rupees,” Shenoy said. For an investor who bought shares at Rs 1,000 and tenders them at Rs 2,000, the payout is taxed at the individual’s slab rate, which can be 35% or more.Meanwhile, the Rs 1,000 purchase cost is treated as a capital loss. “For capital gains, long-term taxes are 12.5%, and you can only offset long-term losses against long-term gains, so it’s only a 15% benefit (after surcharges on tax) on Rs 1,000 = Rs 150 saved in taxes,” Shenoy said.By his calculation, a tender into such a buyback leaves an investor with Rs 1,450 net of taxes. Selling the same shares in the market at Rs 1,700, by contrast, would yield Rs 1,595 after tax.Optional, but still unattractiveBuybacks are not mandatory in India. “There’s a tender window (which can come months later), and if you don’t tender, you just don’t get your shares bought back,” Shenoy wrote. For investors who need liquidity, he argued, selling into the market usually delivers a better after-tax outcome.Why companies still prefer themShenoy pointed out that the rules were not always this harsh. “Buyback tax rules have become onerous, as you’ve seen. It used to be that buybacks were not taxed in your name – the companies just paid a flat 20% tax. This changed to the new system in 2024.”Even so, he said, “Buybacks are great for companies though.” Unlike dividends, which are also fully taxed, buybacks shrink the share base, making future earnings per share look stronger. “So it’s better for a company to do buybacks than to give dividends.”Who wins in this system?Not everyone loses. “Investors in lower tax slabs and some Indian institutions that don’t pay tax, like insurance companies, pension funds, EPFO and mutual funds,” stand to gain from buybacks, Shenoy said.His advice for retail investors was blunt: “Calculate the real post-tax return on your investment before you decide to tender shares in a buyback. It’s usually better off just to sell as many shares in the market instead, unless you are in a low tax bracket.”Also read | Explained: What is China's anti-involution shift and how it impacts Indian stocks(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

Death toll in Nepal protests jumps to 72

3 weeks 6 days ago
The death toll from last week's anti-corruption protests in Nepal has risen to 72, the country's health ministry said on Sunday, as search teams continued to recover bodies from shopping malls and other buildings damaged in the unrest. "Bodies of many people who died in shopping malls, houses and other buildings that were set on fire or attacked are now being discovered," health ministry spokesperson Prakash Budathoki said. The ministry's latest updated data showed at least 2,113 people were injured in Nepal's worst unrest in decades. Many government buildings, the country's supreme court, parliament building, police posts, businesses as well as politicians' private houses including that of President Ramchandra Paudel and Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli were set on fire. Oli, who resigned last week, has been replaced by former Chief Justice Sushila Karki as the interim prime minister tasked with holding new parliamentary elections which has been called for March 5.

Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide stock market action on Monday

3 weeks 6 days ago
The Indian market ended in the green on Friday, with the Nifty 50 rising for an eighth consecutive session, as softer U.S. labour market data helped temper concerns from a stronger-than-expected inflation reading, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates. Investor sentiment was also supported by signs of progress towards a potential revival of U.S.-India trade ties.The S&P BSE Sensex closed 356 points, or 0.44% higher at 81,904.70, while the NSE Nifty 50 added 109 points, or 0.43%, to finish at 25,114.Here's how analysts read the market pulse:The national market closed higher, supported by renewed global optimism over a potential Fed rate cut, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, adding that sentiments improved further on reports that the EU may reject U.S. tariff proposals on India for buying Russian oil."Progress in U.S.-India trade talks is also expected to keep the positive momentum intact in the near term. The defence sector outperformed, aided by the Indian procurement authorities beginning negotiations for six next-generation conventional submarines," said Nair.Also read | 5 Wall Street moguls who dismissed Bitcoin as a fad — Guess what they’re saying now!US marketsThe Nasdaq closed at a record high on Friday, buoyed by gains in Microsoft, even as broader markets finished mixed. Investors are now turning their attention to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, where officials are widely expected to cut interest rates to address a weakening labor market.The S&P 500 slipped 0.05% to 6,584.29, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.59% to 45,834.22. The Nasdaq rose 0.45% to 22,141.10.European MarketsEuropean stocks slipped on Friday, with investors treading carefully ahead of Fitch’s credit rating review of France, even as the region’s benchmark notched its first weekly gain in three weeks.The STOXX 600 edged down 0.11% to 554.74, weighed by a more than 1% slide in healthcare shares. Novartis dropped 2.8% after Goldman Sachs cut its rating, citing intensifying competition from generics. Zealand Pharma declined 4.1% in tandem.For the week, however, the STOXX 600 rose about 1%, supported by a global equity rebound driven by expectations of multiple U.S. rate cuts. Traders have fully priced in a Federal Reserve cut next week, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.Tech ViewThe Nifty managed to stay in the green as put writers provided support around the 25,000 mark, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, adding that the index appears to be consolidating its recent gains, gradually forming a base.“As long as it sustains above 24,850, the undertone remains constructive. A decisive move beyond 25,150 may set the stage for a rally towards 25,500 in the near term," said De.Also read | Warren Buffett’s biggest investment isn’t Apple, BofA or Coca-Cola — it’s a stock hidden in plain sightMost active stocks in terms of turnoverJBM Auto (Rs 3,024 crore), Waaree Energies (Rs 2,462 crore), Gujarat Mineral Development (Rs 2,037 crore), Infosys (Rs 1,967 crore), HDFC Bank (Rs 1,388 crore), Hindustan Copper (Rs 1,362 crore) and HAL (Rs 1,322 crore) were among the most active stocks on BSE in value terms. Higher activity in a counter in value terms can help identify the counters with highest trading turnovers in the day.Most active stocks in volume termsVodafone Idea (Traded shares: 113.20 crore), GMR Airports (Traded shares: 8.11 crore), YES Bank (Traded shares: 7.07 crore), Hindustan Copper (Traded shares: 5.02 crore), Motherson Sumi (Traded shares: 4.63 crore), JBM Auto (Traded shares: 4.32 crore) and HFCL (Traded shares: 4.31 crore) were among the most actively traded stocks in volume terms on NSE.Stocks showing buying interestShares of JBM Auto, Hindustan Copper, Gujarat Mineral Development, GRSE, BEML, Gujarat Pipavav and Bharat Dynamics were among the stocks that witnessed strong buying interest from market participants.Also read | Explained: What is China's anti-involution shift and how it impacts Indian stocks52 Week highOver 135 stocks hit their 52 week highs today while 53 stocks slipped to their 52-week lows. Among the ones which hit their 52 week highs included Bajaj Finance and Aditya Birla Capital.Stocks seeing selling pressureStocks which witnessed significant selling pressure were Netweb Technologies, RattanIndia Enterprises, GSK Pharma, Metropolis Healthcare, Waaree Energies, Jindal Stainless and Sumitomo Chemical.Sentiment meter neutralThe market sentiments were neutral. Out of the 4,289 stocks that traded on the BSE on Friday, 2,170 stocks witnessed declines, 1,974 saw advances, while 145 stocks remained unchanged.Also read | At $88.5 billion, Larry Ellison made more money in 1 day than Gautam Adani's net worth(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Karki takes charge as Nepal's interim PM

3 weeks 6 days ago
Sushila Karki on Sunday took charge as the interim Prime Minister of Nepal, marking a major shift in the nation's political landscape following violent protests. The 73-year-old former Chief Justice was sworn in an the interim Prime Minister on Friday after a nationwide protest led by Gen-Z. What started as a protest against social media ban in the country quickly translated into frustration over political stagnation, corruption, and economic disparity. Karki's appointment comes after protestors collectively chose her name as their nominee for the interim position, citing her integrity and independence. Previous Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned after the widespread protests.Karki was chosen in a unique manner through a public vote held by Gen Z leaders on the online platform Discord. She emerged as the most popular and acceptable figure, not only among the youth movement but also among traditional political forces seeking stability and credibility in a time of uncertainty. Meanwhile, Karki has initiated consultations with close advisors and key figures from the Gen Z movement as she prepares to finalise her Cabinet. Gen Z members are also holding parallel consultations, including discussions on platforms like Discord, to recommend potential candidates who align with their reformist agenda. On Friday, Nepal's Parliament was formally dissolved, and fresh elections were scheduled for March 5, 2026, hours after former Karki was sworn in as the country's new interim leader.Announcing the decision, the President's Office said the dissolution was approved in the first cabinet meeting convened by Karki at 11 pm (local time), marking the start of a six-month transitional government tasked with steering the country to the polls.

Adani Power shares up 8% in 2 weeks. Should you buy before the stock split clock runs out?

3 weeks 6 days ago
Adani Power shares have climbed 8% in the past two weeks, extending their gains to 23% this year and nearly 10% over the past month. With September 22 set as the record date for the company’s first-ever stock split, investors face a critical question: is now the time to buy before the split broadens participation and potentially fuels more upside?Shares closed at Rs 648.65 on Friday, rising more than 6% in just one week. The rally has been driven by a mix of new project wins, regulatory approvals, and the much-anticipated stock split that has sharpened focus on the company’s growth trajectory.Expansion driveOn Thursday, Adani Power said it secured a 1,600 MW ultra-supercritical thermal power project from MP Power Management Company. The Rs 21,000 crore investment will create a new unit in Anuppur, Madhya Pradesh, under a design, build, finance, own and operate model.The order includes an additional 800 MW capacity awarded under a greenshoe option, adding to an earlier 800 MW the firm had already won.“We are delighted that Adani Power has not only secured the initial 800 MW project in Madhya Pradesh but has also been awarded an additional 800 MW under the greenshoe option. This reinforces our commitment to providing reliable, affordable and sustainable power to the state and its people,” said SB Khyalia, CEO of Adani Power.The latest award marks the company’s fifth major supply order in 12 months, taking its total awarded capacity to 7,200 MW.Regulatory approvals and Bhutan hydroThe Madhya Pradesh win follows clearance last week for an underground coal mining project at Gondkhairi in Nagpur district. With a capacity of 2 million tonnes per annum and a 30-year life, the project is expected to create 860 direct and 1,600 indirect jobs.In parallel, Adani Power signed a shareholders’ agreement with Bhutan’s Druk Green Power Corp to develop a 570 MW hydroelectric project at Wangchhu. Adani Power will hold 49% of the joint venture, with DGPC owning the remainder.Stock split loomsShareholders last week approved the company’s first-ever stock split, in which each Rs 10 share will be subdivided into five shares of Rs 2 each. September 22 has been set as the record date.“Adani Power’s upcoming stock split is expected to be a structural positive for the stock, as it will enhance liquidity by lowering the per-share price and making it more accessible to a larger base of retail investors,” said Amruta Shinde, research analyst at Choice Broking. “While the split will not impact the company’s intrinsic valuation, it is likely to improve trading volumes, investor participation, and overall sentiment, thereby supporting better price discovery going forward.”Shinde noted the stock is “moving within a rising parallel channel, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. A sustained move above the critical resistance level of Rs 660 could trigger further upside toward the Rs 700–730 range in the near term.”Analysts weigh upsideHarshal Dasani, business head at INVasset PMS, said stock splits “could increase liquidity, as a lower share price can encourage more retail participation, especially among smaller investors.” But he cautioned that “while stock splits often lead to a temporary surge in investor sentiment, they don’t change the underlying fundamentals or valuation.”Dasani pointed to the company’s recent triggers — the Madhya Pradesh order, the Nagpur coal mine approval, and the Bhutan hydro project — as strengthening the investment case. “Given the positive triggers … a reasonable near-term target price could be Rs 750–780, based on current technical support and market conditions,” he said, identifying Rs 800 as the next psychological resistance.“Support: In the near term, Adani Power has established key support near Rs 600, which aligns with the lower bounds of its recent price action. The 200-day EMA around Rs 590 also offers solid support. If the price dips below Rs 590, it could trigger further downside toward Rs 550,” he said.Technical setup“On the daily chart, Adani Power Ltd has given a breakout from Ascending triangle formation, signaling the beginning of a potential bullish trend,” said Drumil Vithlani, technical research analyst at Bonanza. “With a strong support base around Rs 595, the stock offers a favorable risk-reward setup and has the potential to rally towards Rs 730 in the near term.”Vithlani pegged “key support at Rs 625 and Rs 600, with resistance at Rs 700 and Rs 730.”Shinde of Choice Broking added that the stock is “trading comfortably above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, reflecting strong momentum across all timeframes, while the RSI at 66.31 continues to trend upward, signaling positive momentum but also warranting some caution near the upper boundary of the channel.”What’s next for investors?Investors are also watching upcoming goods and services tax reforms due September 22. Removal of the compensation cess on coal could lower landed costs by 8–10% and boost margins under long-term contracts.With momentum from fresh orders, regulatory approvals, and the stock split deadline drawing near, analysts broadly expect the stock to test higher resistance levels. For investors, the question remains whether to ride the rally before the split, or wait and see if the clock running down brings volatility along with opportunity.Also read | Explained: What is China's anti-involution shift and how it impacts Indian stocks(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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