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Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have continued to pare their exposure to Indian equities in September, offloading shares worth Rs 10,782 crore so far.Nifty has remained unbeaten for eight successive sessions despite this sell-off. On Friday, FIIs were net buyers at Rs 129.6 crore while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 1,556 crore.Commenting on the current trends, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments, attributes higher valuations in India to the current FII exodus vis-a-vis other markets like China, Hong Kong and South Korea. "This has nudged FIIs to sell in India and buy in cheaper markets. This strategy has worked so far this year since these cheaper markets have hugely outperformed India in 2025 till date," he said.In his view, FIIs may reduce their selling and may even turn buyers amid indications of a turnaround in the Indian market. "India’s GDP growth has rebounded strongly in Q1, and the reforms - budget tax cuts, rate cuts by the MPC and GST rationalisation have the potential to sustain the growth momentum. Even though earnings growth will be modest in the 8-10% range in FY26, there is a high likelihood of above 15% earnings growth in FY27," he opined."The market will soon start discounting this, paving the way for a rally taking the Nifty to a new record this year itself. In such a scenario, FIIs are likely to turn buyers in India," Vijayakumar added.Meanwhile, market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) move to ease FPI norms is expected to give a fresh impetus. Capital markets regulator Sebi on Friday approved a single-window clearance system to make it easier for foreign investors to access Indian markets.Also Read: Sebi eases FPIs entry into Indian markets through single-window clearanceThe FII action going ahead could also hinge on the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday. There are strong expectations of a 25 bps rate cut. Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said that the index has managed to stay in the green as PUT writers provided support around the 25,000 mark. In his view, the index appears to be consolidating its recent gains and gradually forming a base. "As long as it sustains above 24,850, the undertone remains constructive. A decisive move beyond 25,150 may set the stage for a rally towards 25,500 in the near term," De said. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

India's retail inflation edged up modestly in August, but economists and industry leaders believe the rise is temporary and unlikely to upset the country's broader price stability, partly due to recent GST reforms.Official data released on Friday showed that retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), climbed to 2.07% year-on-year in August 2025, compared with 1.61% in July. The increase of 46 basis points, though notable, still kept inflation well within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2-6% comfort zone. Food prices, which had remained moderate for several months, began to firm up.Inflation has been a concern for many countries, including advanced economies, but India has largely managed to steer its inflation trajectory well. The RBI held its benchmark repo rate steady at 6.5 per cent for the eleventh consecutive time, before cutting it for the first time in about five years in February 2025.After the recent RBI MPC meeting, the inflation outlook for the year 2025-26 was revised downwards from the earlier forecast of 4 per cent to 3.7 per cent.Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, Head of Asia-Pacific Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the August print was in line with their expectations."India's headline CPI inflation edged up to 2.1% year on year in August from 1.6% year on year in July, aligning with our projections. As we anticipated, inflation bottomed in July, with consumer prices rising at a faster clip in August on the back of fading base effects, solid demand, and weakening rupee," she noted.From now on, she expects inflation to accelerate but remain under control."The effects of GST rate cuts should lower the pace of acceleration from October onwards, keeping the headline inflation rate within or near the central bank's 4% target range midpoint through the end of 2025," she added.S&P Global now projects CPI inflation to average 3.3% in FY26, down from an earlier forecast of 3.5%.The PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI) welcomed the inflation data, linking the modest rise in inflation to easing pressures across key categories. "Looking ahead, we anticipate a further decline in CPI inflation, aided by the GST 2.0 reforms package. The proposed simplified two-tier structure will reduce production costs, translate into lower prices, and, in turn, stimulate consumption," said Hemant Jain, President of PHDCCI.RajSinha, chief economist at CareEdge, called the August print "comfortable" despite the slight uptick. "Headline inflation inched up to 2.1% in August as the favourable base effect waned and food prices moved out of deflation. However, it remained at comfortable levels owing to muted food inflation," Rajani Sinha said.Rajani Sinha further noted that looking ahead, food inflation is likely to stay moderate, supported by healthy agricultural activity and a favourable base."A good monsoon progress, adequate reservoir levels, and strong kharif sowing bode well for food price stability," Sinha said.Sinha sees GST rationalisation as an additional cushion. "We estimate that it could lower CPI inflation by 70-90 bps annually under the current basket, assuming effective pass-through to consumers. With food inflation subdued and demand-side pressures contained, we now lower our inflation projection for FY26 to 2.7% from 3.1% earlier," the CareEdge chief economist added.Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil, said, "Given the lower-than-expected food inflation and the expected easing of core inflation in the coming months due to the reduction in the goods and services tax, we have revised our inflation forecast down to 3.2% from 3.5% for this fiscal."This adjustment, according to Joshi, allows for potential changes in monetary policy. "...we expect the RBI to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points later this fiscal."Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief cconomic adviser at State Bank of India, was a bit cautious. "With August inflation print a tad higher than the 2% mark, a rate cut in October looks onerous. Even a rate cut in December looks a little difficult if growth numbers for Q1 and Q2 are taken into consideration," Ghosh said.The CPI inflation data for September 2025 will be released on October 13, 2025 (Monday) or the next working day if the 13th happens to be a holiday.

Investors continued to cheer the recently announced GST reforms while upgrades to growth expectations and improving domestic demand further underpinned sentiment. Additionally, optimism over the resumption of India–US trade talks, coupled with softer US inflation prints that reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut, provided further support to the rally.Indian equities ended the week on a strong note, supported by favorable domestic developments and a supportive global backdrop. The tone remained broadly positive throughout the week, aided by rotational participation of heavyweights across sectors. Consequently, both benchmark indices closed near the week’s high, with the Nifty settling at 25,114.00 and the Sensex at 81,904.70, registering gains of over 1.5% each.With this, analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:Nifty ended the 2nd week in the green and closed above 25,000. How does the index look now?For the second consecutive trading session, the benchmark index Nifty has concluded the week on a positive note, reinforcing the strength of the ongoing recovery. Over the past two weeks, the index has witnessed a gradual pullback of nearly 700 points, culminating in its highest weekly close in the last eight weeks—a sign of improving sentiment and technical resilience.Currently, the Nifty is on the verge of giving a breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern on a daily scale, which often precedes a sharp directional move. The index is trading above both its short-term and long-term moving averages, which have started to slope upwards—an encouraging signal for bulls.Momentum indicators are also turning constructive. The daily RSI has climbed above the 60 mark for the first time since July 2025, indicating strengthening momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in buy mode, and the rising MACD histogram suggests a pickup in upside momentum. Market breadth has improved significantly in recent sessions. Among Nifty constituents, 82% of stocks are trading above their 20-day EMA, while 76% are above their 50-day EMA—highlighting broad-based participation in the rally.With technical indicators aligning positively and internal strength improving, Nifty appears well-positioned for a potential breakout. Talking about crucial levels, the zone of 25150-25200 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move above the level of 25200 will lead to a sharp upside rally up to the level of 25500, followed by 25700 in the short term. While on the downside, the zone of 24950-24900 is likely to provide a cushion in case of any immediate decline. What is the view on Bank Nifty now, which also gave a green close on the weekly chart?The banking benchmark index has continued its pullback rally for the second consecutive week, signalling a short-term recovery attempt after recent declines. From the recent low of 53561, the index has rebounded by over 1200 points in the last two weeks, reflecting a modest improvement in sentiment.However, despite this recovery, the index remains below its 50-day and 100-day EMA—a sign that the broader trend still lacks confirmation. These moving averages continue to act as overhead resistance, and a decisive close above them will be crucial for a sustained uptrend. On the momentum front, the daily RSI is still in a sideways zone, but it is gradually edging higher, indicating a slow build-up in strength. A breakout above the 60 mark could further validate bullish momentum.Going ahead, the zone of 55100-55200 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move above the level of 55200 will lead to extension of pullback rally upto the level of 56000 in the short term. While on the downside, the zone of 54400-54300 will act as crucial support for the index. With Infosys' buyback on the table, how do you expect the stock to perform?The buyback price is set at 1800 vs 1525 market price, that’s a premium of 18% from the current market price. Given that Infosys is down 19% on a year-to-date basis (YTD), the recent development can act as a short-term boost for the stock. Technically, the stock has formed an Adam & Adam Double Bottom pattern on a daily scale. It is currently hovering around the neckline of the double bottom pattern. It is trading above its 20 and 50-day EMA levels. While the daily RSI is quoting at 5a 6 level and it is on the rising trajectory. Going ahead, the neckline zone of 1540-1550 will be the crucial hurdle for the stock. Any sustainable move above the 1550 level will lead to a sharp upside rally in the stock. While on the downside, the zone of 1490-1480 is likely to provide a cushion in case of any immediate decline.Given the backdrop, how do you read the IT sector?The Nifty IT has recently formed an Adam & Adam Double Bottom pattern on the daily chart—a bullish reversal formation. The index is currently hovering around the neckline resistance of this pattern. It is trading above its 20-day and 50-day EMA, both of which are beginning to edge higher. A sustainable move above the 36500 level could trigger a sharp upside rally in the index, making it one to watch closely.What other sectors are you looking at now?Nifty India Defence: It has given a downward sloping trendline breakout on the daily chart, signalling a shift in trend. The index has also surged above its key moving averages, which are now beginning to slope upwards—a bullish sign. Notably, the daily RSI has crossed the 60 mark for the first time since June 2025, indicating strengthening momentum. With these signals aligning, the index is likely to continue its northward journey in the coming sessions.Nifty CPSE and Nifty PSE: They have also shown strength, with both indices giving a downward sloping trendline breakout on the daily scale. This breakout suggests a potential shift in trend, and we believe these indices are well-positioned to outperform in the short term, supported by improving breadth and sentiment in the PSU space.Beyond these, several other sectoral indices are showing signs of continued outperformance. Nifty Metal, Pharma, Healthcare, Automobile, and Consumer Durables are likely to maintain their positive momentum in the short term, supported by strong price action and favourable technical indicators.And the stocks to watch out for?A number of stocks are showing promising technical setups and could be on traders' radar in the short term. Based on chart patterns, momentum indicators, and moving average alignments, the following stocks are exhibiting bullish traits:Defence & PSU Segment:MAZDOCK, HAL, BEL, BEML, GRSE, TITAGARH — These defence and PSU names have shown strong price action, with several breaking out of consolidation zones and trading above key moving averages.Pharma & Healthcare:Dr. Reddy’s, GLENMARK, GLAND — Pharma stocks are gaining traction, supported by rising RSI and improving trend structure.Financials:BAJFINANCE, BAJAJFINSV — Both stocks have given a consolidation breakout on a daily scale, backed by strengthening momentum.Metals & Commodities:NATIONALUM, HINDALCO, HINDZINC, HINDCOPPER — Metal stocks are witnessing renewed buying interest, with several names trading above their short-term EMAs and forming bullish continuation patterns.These stocks are technically well-placed and could offer trading opportunities in the near term, especially if broader market sentiment remains supportive.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Nifty’s eight-day winning streak reflects a cautious yet positive undertone, says Rupak De of LKP Securities. He sees limited IT upside, defence stocks on the radar, and expiry shifts still in discovery mode. For the week, his top picks include Railtel, Cochin Shipyard, and Bajaj Finance.Edited excerpts from a chat:Nifty has now recorded a feat of 8 consecutive positive endings, but the movement in those 8 days hasn’t been that sharp. How do you see the index’s trajectory ahead when it seems to be making slow but steady strides?The Nifty’s recent up move looks more like a cautious rally rather than a sharp price rise, as investors embrace both positive and negative news. The index is consolidating gains, gradually building a base. As long as it holds above key support around 24,850, the bias remains positive. A decisive move above 25,150 could open the doors towards 25,500 in the short term.Banks kept pace with the rally, but IT surprised. Do you think that it’s going to be curtains down for tech in the week ahead?IT’s bounce was largely led by short-covering and value buying at lower levels. A rise towards 38000 in the short term looks possible, while support is placed at 35500. Weakness might resume if Nifty IT falls below 35500. Overall, I see IT in a sideways-to-positive range rather than a sustained rally.Now that we have seen two weeks of expiry days swapping between BSE and NSE. What is your overall reading of the shift? What impact can you see on volumes and premiums?The expiry-day swapping is still in a price discovery phase. Initially, we are seeing fragmentation of volumes as traders adjust to the new system. Over time, liquidity will likely concentrate where cost-efficiency and transparency are better. Premiums may remain volatile in the short run, but in the long term, competition could bring efficiency and narrower spreads.From whatever we have heard on the Street, Sebi is considering ending weekly expiries. Do you think it would be a good idea to control the F&O mess? Is the Indian market ready for long-dated options?Weekly expiries have undoubtedly added speculative froth, but they also provide hedging flexibility and liquidity. Removing them altogether may hurt participation and market depth. Instead, measures like higher margins for short-term trades or curbs on excessive retail leverage could be more effective. As for long-dated options, while they exist globally, the Indian market still lacks depth beyond near-month contracts. So, it may take time before long-dated options gain meaningful traction.BSE shares ended the week 5% lower amid newsflow around more curbs being imposed by Sebi in the derivatives market. Where do you see the stock moving ahead in the week?Following a sharp correction, the stock has formed a bullish harami pattern on the daily chart, indicating an initial sign of recovery in the short term. A sustained rally from the current level looks possible upon a decisive move above 2210. Support on the lower end is placed at 2140. Given the sharp upmove in defence stocks on Friday, would any of them be on your radar in the week ahead? Do you think the rally will sustain?Defence stocks bounced back sharply on renewed hopes around export opportunities and government-led initiatives in the sector. Counters like BEL, BDL, and HAL, which had been moving sideways for the last few months, suddenly saw fresh buying interest. The long-term story for defence remains very strong, but after a sharp one-day rally, some consolidation can’t be ruled out. Having said that, dips in quality names like BEL, BDL, and HAL are likely to attract buyers, so I’d keep them on the radar for sustained momentum.Give us your stock ideas for the week:Buy Railtel at Rs 371.5 CMP. Target price: Rs 400. Stop loss: Rs 360Railtel has seen a smart recovery after taking support around the ₹330 zone. The stock has moved above the 21-day EMA, indicating a shift in momentum on the short-term charts. Volumes have picked up along with price action, suggesting renewed buying interest. RSI has also inched higher and moved above the 50 mark, supporting the bullish bias. Going forward, as long as it sustains above ₹360, the stock may move towards ₹385–400 levels, while immediate support lies at ₹360.Buy Cochin Shipyard above Rs 1,750. Target price: Rs 1,900. Stop loss: Rs 1,700Cochin Shipyard witnessed a strong recovery after a prolonged decline, as the stock surged with heavy volumes on Friday. The price has managed to reclaim the 21-day EMA, reflecting a shift in momentum towards the bulls. On the daily chart, the large bullish candle indicates strong buying interest from lower levels. Meanwhile, the RSI has also moved higher, suggesting rising strength in the trend. Going forward, a sustained move above 1,750 could open the gates for 1,850-1900 on the higher side, while immediate support is placed around 1,700.Buy Bajaj Finance around Rs 980. Target price: Rs 1,050. Stop loss: Rs 944Bajaj Finance Ltd is trading at Rs 1,003.25 on NSE, extending its sharp September rally. The stock has staged a strong recovery from August lows near Rs 850, comfortably trading above the 21-EMA, highlighting a firm bullish trend. However, an RSI above 80 indicates overbought conditions, raising the risk of a near-term pause or profit-booking. Volumes have picked up, confirming strong participation in the upmove. While the trend remains positive, the overextended momentum suggests chances of consolidation before the next leg higher. Fresh longs should be taken on corrections for better risk management.