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Oil prices extended their skyrocketing rally on Monday, with Brent crude futures rallying more than 3% to near the $120 per barrel mark amid growing expectations of US troops conducting a ground offensive in Iran, further intensifying the war in the oil-rich Middle East.President Donald Trump-led US administration is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, the Washington Post reported yesterday. US Central Command said on X that it has deployed 3,500 Marines and sailors to the Middle East aboard the USS Tripoli, marking the largest American military buildup in the region in two decades.Iran's parliament speaker, meanwhile, warned that the country’s forces were "waiting for American soldiers" and would "rain fire" on any US troops attempting to enter Iranian territory. In his message, reported by Iranian state media, Ghalibaf also said: "The enemy signals negotiation in public, while in secret it plots a ground attack".Additionally, Yemeni Houthis launched their first attacks on ⁠Israel over ‌the weekend, widening the ongoing war and adding to inflation woes.These developments led to a rise in worries for prolonged supply disruption for oil, spurring the rally in oil prices. Brent crude futures jumped over 3.4% to trade at $116 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained more than 3% to trade at $103 per barrel, as seen at around 8 am IST.The war, which began earlier this month with US-Israeli strikes killing Iran’s former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khammenei and resulting in massive retaliation from Tehran, has spread across the Middle East. Fear now rises for a ground offensive and the entry of Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis.Pakistan said it was preparing to host "meaningful talks" to end the prolonged war in the coming days, although Iran said it is ready to respond if the United States launches a ground operation.What lies ahead?Macquarie has warned that crude prices could surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel if the Iran conflict drags into mid-year and keeps the vital Strait of Hormuz shut. “If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy a historically large amount of global oil demand,” the Macquarie analysts said in the March 27 report, as reported by Bloomberg. “The timing of the re-opening of the straits, and physical damage to energy infrastructure, is the main determinant of the longer-term impact on commodities,” it added.Ambit Institutional Equities, in its report, said that even if geopolitical tensions cool off, oil prices will remain elevated, with $80 being the new normal for Brent due to infrastructure damage, geopolitical risk premiums, and inventory restocking.“While physical damage assessments to upstream and refining infrastructure remain preliminary, initial indications point to meaningful disruptions. Layering on this, geopolitical risk premiums are being embedded in near-term crude prices. At the same time, demand is being amplified by inventory restocking as importers rush to rebuild depleted SPR and OECD stocks. Taken together, these three factors underpin our view of sustained near-term crude price elevation,” it wrote.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Nifty could continue to trend lower and experience sharp swings this week as geopolitical tensions in West Asia persist, with no clarity on a definitive resolution yet. Nifty 50 once again closed below 23,000 on Friday, and trading below this level could drag the index to 22,500–22,400 zone, according to analysts.DHARMESH SHAH HEAD OF TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ICICI SECURITIESWhere is Nifty headed? For a meaningful pullback to materialise, Nifty must reclaim its short-term moving average (23,800) and establish a ‘higher high–higher low’ pattern on weekly chart in the upcoming truncated week. Failure to do so means the possibility of a prolonged correction cannot be ruled out, wherein critical long-term support is placed in 21,900–21,700 zone. Our support is based on the following observations: a) Past 25 years’ data suggest that there have been eight occasions where bull market corrections were arrested, with an average decline of 17%. b) Since 2003, on multiple occasions, Nifty has respected the long-term 200-week EMA (barring 2008 and 2020), currently placed at 21,930. c) The April 2025 panic low is placed at 21,743. d) Whenever 85% of Nifty 500 universe trades below their 50- and 200-SMAs, and the net daily advance-decline suggests that only 30 stocks are in positive territory, it signals capitulation extremes. Post these extremes, the index has delivered a median rally of 23% in the subsequent 6–12 months. Trading Strategies: Option Strategy for April Buy 1 lot of 23,800 CE @ 322 Buy 1 lot of 21,800 PE @ 379 Sell 2 lots of 24,100 CE @ 230 Sell 2 lots of 21,500 PE @ 311 Total inflow is 381 points (Rs 24,765 per lot), which is the minimum profit if the index stays between 21,800 and 23,800. The maximum profit is 650 points (Rs 42,000 per lot) if the index closes at 24,100 or 21,500. The breakeven range is 20,800 on the downside and 24,800 on the upside. As long as Nifty trades within this range, the strategy remains profitable, with gains between Rs 24,765 and Rs 42,000 per lot. The approximate margin required is Rs 2,20,000. 129889357TOP PICKS FOR THE WEEK Bharti Airtel: Buy at Rs 1,790–1,845, Stop Loss at Rs 1,684, Target: Rs 2,032 Stock has rebounded from its key 20-month EMA, which has held as support in past corrections. After an ~18% fall over four months, it is showing a familiar correction pattern, offering a favourable risk-reward buying opportunity. DLF: Sell at Rs 523–535, Stop Loss at Rs 546, Target: Rs 502. Stock has been trading below all its key moving averages, indicating a negative short-term bias. Structurally, the stock has witnessed a multi-month support breakdown, with a lower high–lower low structure on the weekly time frame.RAHUL SHARMA HEAD - TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, JM FINANCIAL SERVICESWhere is Nifty headed? Nifty formed back-to-back doji candles on weekly charts, indicating indecision. Friday’s sell-off came on higher-than-average volumes, with FII shorts in the index at their highest level (2.79 lakh short) since the war began. India VIX has risen to sub-27 levels, suggesting continued gap openings. The daily trend remains down, with significant short additions seen on Friday in Nifty, Bank Nifty, and Midcap Nifty futures. Immediate support is at 22,471, below which the index could test 22,000. Resistance is placed at 22,900 and 23,200. Trading Strategies: Look to add Nifty ATM puts of next week’s expiry on a bounce back around 23,000 for downside targets of 22,470 and lower. Investors can look to add Nifty ETFs in the range of 21,700–22,000 if the correction extends this week. TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK Reliance Industries: Sell at CMP Rs 1,348, Stop Loss at Rs 1,380, Target: Rs 1,310/1,280 A bearish breakdown was seen on daily charts on Friday, along with a rise in volumes. Bharti Airtel: Buy at CMP Rs 1,843, Stop Loss at Rs 1,795, Target: Rs 1,900/1,950 A bullish divergence was seen on daily charts relative to Nifty in the last two weeks, along with a rise in volumes on Friday.DHUPESH DHAMEJA DERIVATIVES ANALYST, SAMCO SECURITIESWhere is Nifty headed? The index remains in a lower high–lower low formation, with rebounds being sold into and the short-term trend firmly bearish. Nifty faced rejection near its 10-DEMA and has breached the 22,950–23,000 support zone, now acting as resistance. Weak momentum (RSI below 40) and elevated India VIX near 26.8 point to continued volatility and downside risk. As long as Nifty stays below 23,000, the bias remains negative with targets of 22,500 and 22,200. A sustained move above 23,000– 23,100 could trigger short covering towards 23,400–23,500. Trading Strategies: Adopt a sell-on-rise approach near 22,900–23,000 with a stoploss above 23,100, aiming for 22,600–22,500 on the downside. At the same time, options traders can deploy a Bear Call Spread (sell 22,500 CE and buy 25,800 CE of the 07 April 2026 expiry) to benefit from overhead resistance and limited risk exposure.TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK Ather Energy: Buy at CMP Rs 796, Stop Loss at Rs 748, Target: Rs 880 Ather Energy is showing strong bullish momentum after breaking above its previous all-time high zone of Rs 780–790 and hitting fresh highs, signalling trend continuation. The stock continues to form a higher high–higher low structure, indicating sustained buying interest. Emcure Pharma: Buy at CMP Rs 1,652, Stop Loss at Rs 1,540, Target: Rs 1,840 Stock shows a strong bullish continuation after breaking above the Rs 1,580 resistance, a key supply zone. It continues to form a higher high–higher low structure, indicating a strengthening trend and accumulation. The breakout is backed by improving participation, signalling demand-driven price action and reinforcing the uptrend.