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HZL eyes rare earths, seeks global collab

1 month 2 weeks ago
Vedanta group firm Hindustan Zinc Ltd is actively exploring opportunities in rare earth elements and seeking global partners for AI and drone-based exploration of critical minerals, Chairperson Priya Agarwal Hebbar on Monday said. Addressing the shareholders during the 59th Annual General Meeting, Hebbar said, "Further, we are actively pursuing exploration opportunities in copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, potash, and rare earth elements, while also looking at neodymium from monazite, antimony, graphite, and germanium." Rare earth elements are essential to modern technology. From smartphones and electric vehicles to wind turbines, defence systems, and advanced electronics, these minerals are the backbone of both civilian and military-industrial capabilities. "We have already floated international tenders for AI- and drone-led exploration, tapping advanced expertise from partners in Australia, South Africa, Chile, and even China," she explained. Hebbar further said that the company has evolved from being the country's largest zinc and silver producer to become a multi-metal, future-enabling enterprise. In a significant step toward strengthening India's mineral security, the government conducted its fifth-tranche auction, which, for the first time, included blocks of potash, tungsten, and rare earth elements. The company emerged as a successful bidder for these key, critical, and strategic mineral blocks. Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) secured a rare earth (monazite) block, a land-based, non-radioactive deposit, distinct from the bit-sand monazite currently mined by Indian Rare Earths Ltd. India is rich in monazite, a key source of neodymium for rare earth magnets. Despite their name, rare earths are not especially rare in nature, but economically viable deposits are limited and often environmentally challenging to extract. At present, this space is dominated by China, accounting for around 60-70 per cent of global production and an even larger share of the refining and processing capacity. The Chinese government this year imposed export restrictions on rare earth elements and associated magnets, and later lifted the curb.

Fitch affirms India at BBB-, stable outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
Fitch Ratings on Monday affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook, saying that the country's ratings are supported by its robust growth and solid external finances.India's economic outlook remains strong relative to peers, even as momentum has moderated in the past two years, said the rating agency. "We forecast GDP growth of 6.5% in the fiscal year ending March 2026 (FY26), unchanged from FY25, and well above the 'BBB' median of 2.5%."Fitch said that domestic demand will remain solid, underpinned by the ongoing public capex drive and steady private consumption. However, private investment is likely to remain "moderate", particularly given heightened US tariff risks. The firm said that there has been a notable slowdown in nominal GDP growth, which it forecasts to expand 9.0% in FY26, from 9.8% in FY25 and 12.0% in FY24.Tariff RisksThe agency said,that the direct impact on GDP will be modest as exports to the US account for 2% of GDP, but tariff uncertainty will dampen business sentiment and investment. The Trump administration is planning to impose a 50% headline tariff on India by 27 August, although Fitch believes this will eventually be negotiated lower.Moreover, India's ability to benefit from supply chain shifts out of China would be reduced if US tariffs ultimately remain above that of Asian peers, it said. "Proposed goods and services tax (GST) reforms, if adopted, would support consumption, offsetting some of these growth risks."Room for rate cutFitch said that low inflation will provide space for one more 25bp cut in 2025. Falling food prices and policy actions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have kept inflation contained. Core inflation is stable around the 4% mid-point of the RBI's 2%-6% target band. Headline inflation fell to 1.6% in July, driven primarily by easing food prices. The RBI cut its policy repo rate 100bp to 5.5% between February and June 2025.Credit growth slowed to 9.0% in May from 19.8% a year earlier due to high policy rates and tighter macroprudential measures on unsecured consumer credit. However, we expect credit growth to pick up on the monetary easing, it added.Medium-Term OutlookFitch estimates potential GDP growth of 6.4%, led by strong public capex, a private investment pick-up and favourable demographics. "We assume healthy corporate and bank balance sheets will spur an investment acceleration, but this may depend on better visibility over the domestic consumption outlook.""The government's deregulation agenda and GST reforms should support incremental growth. Passage of other significant reforms, especially on land and labour laws, seems politically difficult. Still, some state governments are likely to advance such reforms. India has signed several bilateral trade agreements, but trade barriers remain relatively high."Fiscal Credibility ImprovingThe agency said, strong revenue growth and reductions in subsidy spending drove consolidation even as capex spending rose steadily to 3.2% of GDP in FY24 from around 1.5% in FY19, which should help reduce infrastructure gaps and boost potential growth.In recent years, the central government (CG) has bolstered fiscal transparency, enhanced spending quality, and demonstrated commitment to a path of steady, though gradual, fiscal consolidation by achieving or outperforming budget targets. The CG deficit fell to 4.8% of GDP in FY25 from 5.5% in FY24 and a peak of 9.2% in FY21.Modest Deficit Reduction ForecastFitch has forecast the CG deficit to decline to 4.4% of GDP in FY26, meeting the FY22 budget objective of reaching a 4.5% deficit in FY26. Revenue may underperform as nominal GDP growth slows, but we think spending will be managed to reach the target, it said. "We expect deficit reduction to slow after FY26, with a fall to 4.2% of GDP in FY27 and 4.1% in FY28. Capex is likely to stay high and the current Pay Commission review will increase civil servant salaries amid more limited space for subsidy cuts and the potential for slightly revenue-negative GST reforms." A shock could lead to slippage, but the CG has shown a preference to keep deficits contained, it added.The rating agency expects the general government (GG) deficit to narrow to 7.3% of GDP in FY26 (2025 BBB median: 3.5%) and 7.0% by FY28 from a Fitch-estimated 7.8% in FY25. "We estimate the aggregate state deficit rose to 3.0% of GDP in FY25, but will stabilise at 2.9% starting FY26."Structural Fiscal Weaknesses India's GG debt burden is elevated at a Fitch-estimated 80.9% of GDP in FY25, well above the 59.6% 'BBB' median. "We forecast a slight rise in debt to 81.5% in FY26, as nominal growth slips. We expect debt to follow only a modest downward trend to 78.5% by FY30, even as nominal growth recovers to 10.5%. If nominal growth persists at below 10%, debt reduction could become challenging. Medium-term fiscal policy will now be anchored by the CG's new objective of reducing CG debt to 50% (+/-1%) by FY31, from 56.1% in FY26, per budget estimates."The government finances the high debt in its domestic market with limited foreign participation and a low share of foreign-currency debt in total debt at around 3% (BBB median: 30%), said Fitch. "However, the interest/revenue ratio, at near 23.5%, remains elevated, well above the 9% 'BBB' median, constraining fiscal flexibility to pursue alternative spending objectives. We forecast a slight decline in this ratio to 22.7% by FY28 due to falling interest rates, but it is likely to remain a key weakness in India's credit profile for some time."Strong External Finances India's external finances remain a rating strength, underpinned by high FX reserves, a net external creditor position, and a low current account deficit (CAD). Fitch forecasts a stable CAD at 0.7% of GDP in FY26 before rising gradually to a still modest 1.5% by FY28. FX reserves rose by USD59 billion to USD695 billion by 15 August 2025 from end-December 2024, around eight months of current external payment coverage.

Cohance Lifesciences and other pharma stocks jump up to 5% after Jefferies initiates Buy recommendation

1 month 2 weeks ago
Shares of Cohance Lifesciences surged 5.5% to Rs 935 in intraday trade after Jefferies initiated coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 1,150. The global brokerage expressed a bullish outlook on select Indian pharma and CRDMO companies, assigning ‘Buy’ ratings to Cohance Lifesciences, Divi’s Laboratories, and SAI Life Sciences, with an estimated upside potential of up to 30%.The news triggered an upward rally in the stocks, with Cohance Lifesciences gaining 5.5%, Divi’s Laboratories advancing 2.5% to an intraday high of Rs 6,314.5, and SAI Life Sciences rising about 2% to Rs 943 apiece on the NSE.According to Jefferies,India’s CRDMO (Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization) industry is experiencing a major shift, evolving from traditional chemical manufacturing to becoming a strategic partners for global innovators. This transformation is fueled by enhanced capabilities, geographic diversification, and the strategic China+1 approach, which the brokerage expects will drive a high-teen revenue CAGR over the next ten years.Also read: Nifty bulls to regroup soon, says Anand James. Key levels to watch out forJefferies Top Picks and TargetSAI Life Sciences has been named Jefferies’ top pick in the sector, backed by its integrated service offerings, strong East-West presence, and high growth visibility. The firm expects a 15% revenue CAGR and 24% EBITDA CAGR over FY25–28E, with a target price of Rs 1,100, representing a 19% upside from its last close of Rs 924.Cohance Lifesciences has been initiated with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 1,150, implying a 28% upside from its recent close of Rs 896. Jefferies expects Cohance to post the highest growth rate among its CRDMO coverage, with EBITDA CAGR exceeding 25% over FY25–28E. The company is also viewed as the strongest ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) play in the Indian listed space, supported by a strong management team and proven execution.Divi’s Laboratories has been upgraded to Buy, driven by optimism around its GLP-1 drug pipeline, with a target price of Rs 7,150, indicating a 19% upside from the closing price of Rs 6,027.Also read: Ola Electric shares rally 5% on policy talks to speed EV adoptionIndia’s CRDMO sector—a USD 3 billion revenue industry—has experienced a 14% CAGR over the past five years. However, growth has been uneven due to Covid-related demand surges followed by a slowdown. Looking ahead, Jefferies estimates a high-teen revenue CAGR of 18% between FY25 and FY30E, driven by strong pipeline visibility, Big Pharma’s diversification through the China+1 strategy, and increasing demand for weight loss and type 2 diabetes drugs (such as GLP/GIP therapies).(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Vodafone Idea shares rally over 10% in 2 days amid AGR relief buzz

1 month 2 weeks ago
Shares of Vodafone Idea extended their rebound on Monday, rising as much as 2.3% to Rs 7.23 on BSE after an 8% surge on Friday. The two-day rally of 10.2% follows reports that the Prime Minister’s Office is reviewing a relief package for the debt-laden telecom operator, rekindling hopes of support on its massive adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues.On Friday, Vodafone Idea shares jumped 9.3% intraday to Rs 7.17 before closing 7.8% higher at Rs 7.07, after reports that the Department of Telecommunications had informally shared proposed bailout measures with the PMO. These include a two-year extension of the moratorium on statutory dues, more repayment flexibility, reduced annual installments, and possible waivers on penalties and interest, according to Moneycontrol.Vodafone Idea owes about Rs 83,400 crore in AGR dues, with annual commitments of roughly Rs 18,000 crore starting March 2025. Total government liabilities, including penalties and interest, are pegged at nearly Rs 2 trillion.Technical picture mixedDespite the recent bounce, Voda Idea shares remain under pressure, down 10% in 2025 and more than 54% lower over the past 12 months. From a technical perspective, the stock is trading above six of its eight key simple moving averages, indicating short-term strength, but remains below its 150-day and 200-day averages, underscoring longer-term weakness.The Relative Strength Index stands at 54.9, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence remains below the center line at -0.1, a bearish signal.Mounting financial strainThe company’s precarious financial health has been a recurring concern. During the company’s June-quarter earnings call on August 18, Chief Executive Officer Akshaya Moondra said the operator continues to seek alternative funding options for capital expenditure, noting that traditional banking channels remain largely closed due to uncertainty over AGR dues.The PMO’s decision on the proposed relief framework is seen as pivotal for the company’s survival in India’s fiercely competitive telecom market.Also read | Vodafone Idea Q1 Results: Cons loss widens YoY to Rs 6,608 crore, revenue up 5%; ARPU at Rs 177(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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