ET NEWS

Global markets ended the week on a firm note as U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank remains open to cutting interest rates in the near term, raising hopes of a September move. His remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium lifted sentiment across Wall Street, with spillover effects seeming to be priced in on Asian and European markets.In India, Gift Nifty futures closed higher at 25,000, up 121 points or 0.49%, suggesting a possible recovery in the next session. However, the cash market reflected caution as the BSE Sensex ended at 81,306.85, down 693.86 points or 0.85%, while the Nifty 50 slipped 0.85% to 24,870.10.Investors reacted warily to Powell’s emphasis on a data-dependent approach, with IT, financials and real estate among the worst-hit sectors given their sensitivity to global risk sentiment and domestic rate expectations.In contrast, U.S. markets rallied strongly on Friday, with the Dow Jones climbing 846.24 points, or 1.89%, to a record 45,631.74. The S&P 500 rose 96.74 points, or 1.52%, to 6,466.91, while the Nasdaq advanced 396.22 points, or 1.88%, to 21,496.53.The rebound helped the S&P 500 snap a five-day losing streak after a broad selloff in heavyweight technology stocks earlier in the week. Traders sharply increased their bets on a September rate cut, with the probability rising to nearly 90% from about 75% before Powell’s comments.Earlier in the day, among the Asian markets, the Asia Dow gained 0.74% to 4,793.71, Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.05% to 42,633.29, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.93% to 25,339.14, and the Shanghai Composite rose 1.45% to 3,825.76.In his Jackson Hole address, Powell acknowledged signs of softening in the U.S. labor market but stopped short of confirming an imminent cut, reiterating that upcoming inflation and jobs data will be critical.Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Lead at VT Markets, said Powell’s comments raised the likelihood of a September cut and possibly another later in the year, which immediately boosted MCX gold prices as traders seized the opportunity after the dollar weakened. He added that while Powell’s tone delivered short-term bullish momentum, gold remains highly sensitive to U.S. economic data and further Fed signals.Powell also pointed out that tariff pressures are feeding into consumer prices, hinting that trade frictions, including with India, could complicate inflation control.He added, “This has heightened fears around the broader economic fallout from Trump’s tariff policies, with Indian exporters already facing increased pressure. For Indian investors, Powell’s speech underscored the importance of watching upcoming US economic data and the September FOMC meeting.”“While he acknowledged signs of softening in the US labor market, Powell stopped short of confirming a rate cut, instead reiterating the Fed’s data-dependent stance. However, the chance of a rate cut in September increased on the back of his speech,” Maxwell said.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Ajay Khandelwal, Fund Manager at Motilal Oswal AMC, shares his perspective on how India’s equity markets will evolve as the country moves toward its 2047 Viksit Bharat goals. From clean energy and defence to digital platforms and domestic savings, he highlights the big shifts, risks, and investment opportunities ahead.Edited excerpts from a chat:As India moves toward its 2047 Viksit Bharat goals, what are the most significant transformation shifts you anticipate in markets over the next two decades?By 2047, India’s growth will be driven by big shifts — clean energy and power grids, semiconductor and electronics manufacturing, defence production, AI and data centres, healthcare, manufacturing, rising urbanisation, domestic savings in equities, and digital platforms like UPI powering new services.Trump's aggressive tariffs against India can challenge investment themes like China+1, Make in India, and Atmanirbhar Bharat. How do you see the landscape evolving from a markets perspective and does it require a change in strategy?Rising US tariffs will hurt exporters that rely too much on the U.S. and lack pricing power. Instead, investors should focus on Indian companies benefiting from domestic growth, and on exporters like pharma, engineering R&D, and IT that are diversified across regions and less exposed to tariffs. The best picks are financially strong firms with low debt, high returns, and long-term orders, as they can keep growing steadily despite global uncertainty.Which sectors or companies do you believe are currently at critical inflection points, offering special opportunity investments for the coming years?The big opportunities ahead lie in companies supplying critical equipment for power grids and HVDC transmission, renewable energy plus storage systems, and data centers (like cables, cooling, and switchgear). There’s also strong potential in the semiconductor supply chain, defence platforms with long-term orders, rail/metro and freight infrastructure, and healthcare/API-CDMO manufacturers. The focus should be on businesses that already have operational capacity, long-term contracts, strong pricing power, and high returns (18–20%+), while adding exposure as they deliver on execution milestones rather than just news flow.In your view, how does Motilal Oswal AMC’s QGLP philosophy give you an edge when identifying and capturing these opportunities?The QGLP philosophy — Quality, Growth, Longevity, and Price — gives us a disciplined framework to find the right businesses at the right valuations. It ensures we back companies with strong fundamentals and capable management, focus on businesses that can grow for many years, and stay disciplined on what we pay. This balance helps us not just identify big opportunities early, but also hold them through cycles with confidence, while avoiding overpaying in times of hype. That consistency is what gives us an edge.How do you see the Indian equity markets shaping up over the next 12–18 months? In the next 12–18 months, markets should trend up but with some volatility, as strong domestic fundamentals and capital flows offset global worries. Earnings growth will likely broaden in FY26. Many investors found the Q1 earnings season below expectations as signs of broad-based growth were missing. Do you think earnings recovery will come in Q2 or Q3 onwards? From Q2 FY26, growth should pick up with support from festive spending, income tax cuts and GST slab rationalization, while by Q3 the recovery will be wider. Global uncertainty is expected to ease, domestic and export orders will translate into revenue, input costs will stabilize and margin recovery will start playing out.If you had Rs 10 lakh to invest in the market right now, how would you spread it across gold/silver, equities and debt?For a 5+ year horizon, most of the money should be in equities (about 75%) to capture long-term growth, while keeping 15% in debt through a mix of short–medium duration and target-maturity/dynamic funds for stability, and 10% in gold/silver as a hedge against uncertainty.

Jackson Hole, Wyoming: Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, on Friday used a closely watched speech to send his strongest signal yet that the central bank is preparing to soon restart interest rate cuts, highlighting the labour market's vulnerabilities even as inflation accelerates.Powell held back from explicitly endorsing a reduction in borrowing costs at the Fed's next meeting in September. But his emphasis on the prospects of a weakening economic backdrop made clear that a cut is likely next month."The balance of risks appears to be shifting," Powell said in his final speech as Fed chair at an annual conference hosted by the Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson, Wyoming. With borrowing costs weighing on the economy, the labor market softening and inflation risks contained, "the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance," said the chair.Powell highlighted the recent slowdown in monthly jobs growth, but questioned whether it was a function of a pullback in demand from companies or a reduction in the supply of workers resulting from President Donald Trump's immigration crackdown. He said that left the labour market in a "curious kind of balance" that warranted caution."This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising," he said. "And if those risks materialise, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment."Powell stressed, however, that inflation was still too high even as he sought to push back on concerns that Trump's tariffs would lead to a persistent rise in price pressures. Rather he said a "reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short-lived - a one-time shift in the price level.""Of course, 'one-time' does not mean 'all at once.' It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks," he added.Still, Powell acknowledged that the Fed was in a "challenging situation" given that the central bank's two goals of low, stable inflation and a healthy labor market are now in tension with one another. Against this backdrop, he said, the Fed would need to "proceed carefully" with its plans to reduce the degree of restraint it is imposing on the economy.That suggests that once the Fed starts cutting, it will not reduce interest rates quickly or by much if the economy evolves as expected. Powell reiterated Friday that he viewed the central bank's policy settings as only "modestly" restrictive, meaning there is not too far to go in terms of interest rate reductions before hitting the Fed's desired level. The central bank is aiming for a "neutral" setting that neither revs up the economy nor slows it down.Powell's speech is typically the top billing of the three-day gathering, which brings together central bankers from around the world, current and past government officials and academics. Powell was met with resounding applause and a standing ovation before he began speaking.

Mumbai: Equities ended lower Friday, snapping a six-day gaining streak, as investors booked profits amid concerns over additional 25% US tariffs on Indian exports taking effect next week. The Centre's proposed indirect tax streamlining, which boosted the gauges earlier this week, failed to influence the market's direction in the absence of fresh positive cues.The Nifty fell 213.65 points, or 0.85%, to close at 24,870.1. The Sensex declined 693.86 points, or 0.85%, to end at 81,306.85. Both benchmark indices have ended the week nearly 1% higher, underpinned by prospects of lower producer levies stoking busy-season consumer demand."Markets saw some profit booking on Friday, despite ending the week in positive territory, largely due to global concerns and the potential imposition of an additional 25% tariff on India starting next week," said Pankaj Pandey, head of fundamental research, ICICI Direct.Pandey said banking and financial stocks have dragged the large cap recovery, weighed down by persistent foreign fund selling and amid expectations of further rate cuts next year, as lower GST rates cause consumer inflation gauge to head south.At the beginning of August, the US President put additional tariffs of 25% on top of existing 25% tariffs on Indian goods over its purchases of Russian oil, taking the total levy to 50%--among the highest on any country. The new tariffs will be implemented from August 27.Foreign portfolio investors net sold shares worth ₹1,623 crore. Domestic institutions were sellers to the tune of ₹329 crore.The Nifty Bank index was one of the top losers on Friday, down 1.1%. Nifty's Metal, Oil and Gas and FMCG indices declined 0.8-1.2% at close."Markets appear to have limited upside in the near term, weighed down by weak Q1 earnings, a lack of revival signals for Q2, ongoing tariff concerns, and stretched valuations," said Siddarth Bhamre, head of institutional research at Asit C. Mehta.123464339No Follow-ThroughBhamre said while the recent GST rate cuts sparked initial optimism, the limited price impact is unlikely to drive meaningful incremental demand, as reflected in the absence of sustained buying after Monday. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan remained flat, China advanced 1.5%, Hong Kong and South Korea rose 0.9% and Taiwan dropped 0.8%.The pan-Europe index Stoxx 600 was up 0.2% at the time of going to print."We believe most of the negative news is already priced in. Any positive developments in consumption trends or tariff negotiations could support a recovery and further rally," said Pandey.He expects the Nifty to hold the 24,500 levels, with resistance around 25,400 levels.Nifty's Volatility Index or VIX- known as the market's fear gauge, went up 3.1% to 11.7 levels on Friday.

US President Donald Trump has nominated his longtime aide Sergio Gor, who is currently the Director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, as the next US Ambassador to India. In a social media post on Friday, Trump said Gor, 38, is a "great friend, who has been at my side for many years". "I am pleased to announce that I am promoting Sergio Gor to be our next United States Ambassador to the Republic of India," he said. He would also serve as a special envoy for South and Central Asian affairs, Trump said. The announcement comes amid tariff tensions between Washington and New Delhi. Trump said Gor and his team had overseen the hiring of nearly 4,000 officials across federal departments and agencies "in record time," adding that over 95 per cent of positions were now filled. Gor will remain in his current role at the White House until his confirmation, he said. "Gor has worked on my historic presidential campaigns, published my best-selling books, and ran one of the biggest Super PACs, which supported our movement," Trump wrote. The president described Gor's role in the administration as "essential" in delivering on his political mandate. "For the most populous region in the world, it is important that I have someone I can fully trust to deliver on my agenda and help us make America great again. Sergio will make an incredible Ambassador. Congratulations Sergio!" Trump said. Gor in a social media post said he is "beyond grateful" to Trump for his incredible trust and confidence in nominating him to be the next US Ambassador to India and Special Envoy for South and Central Asian Affairs. "It will be the honour of my life to represent the United States," he said. Vice President JD Vance in a social media post said Gor "will make a fantastic ambassador for our country to India". Gor will succeed Eric Garcetti, who served as ambassador from May 2023 to January 2025.