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Takeaways from the White House meeting

1 month 2 weeks ago
U.S. President Donald Trump gathered European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for a hastily arranged White House meeting on Monday to discuss a path to ending Russia's war in Ukraine. Here are takeaways from the talks: WARM TONE, LITTLE SUBSTANCESeven European leaders, the Ukrainian president, their motorcades, dozens of Trump administration staff and more than 100 journalists swarmed the White House campus on Monday in anticipation of the unusual meeting. Would Trump and Zelenskiy agree on a path to peace? Or would their latest Oval Office session devolve into a bitter squabble as in February? Neither scenario occurred. Zelenskiy, chided for his appearance and manner in February, adjusted both. Wearing more formal clothing and repeatedly expressing his gratitude to Trump, he was greeted by a far more complimentary U.S. president than in the past. But, despite Trump's vow to assist in Ukraine's security after a hypothetical peace deal, there was no immediate sign that any party had substantially changed position on land swaps, security guarantees or sanctions. Instead, Trump ended with promises to host a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to address the many remaining issues. HEAPING PRAISE"Have you said 'thank you' once?" U.S. Vice President JD Vance asked Zelenskiy in February, accusing him of failing to show sufficient gratitude for U.S. support. On Monday, Zelenskiy made sure that was not an issue. His opening remarks in the Oval Office included eight thank-yous, mostly for Trump. "Thank you so much, Mr. President ... thank you for your attention. Thank you very much for your efforts, personal efforts to stop killings and stop this war. Thank you," Zelenskiy said. He included the U.S. first lady, who sent a letter to Putin about abducted children in Ukraine. "Using this opportunity, my thanks to your wife," the Ukrainian president said. "And thanks to all our partners and that you supported this format. And after our meeting, we're going to have leaders who are around us, the UK and France, Germany... all partners around Ukraine supporting us. Thanks (to) them. Thank you very much for your invitation." Unlike in February, Vance this time sat largely silent. COMBAT FORMALThe stakes of the meeting could not have been higher. But one of the most-asked questions among diplomats in D.C. could not have been more frivolous: Would the Ukrainian president wear a suit? The answer: kind of. Zelenskiy showed up to the White House in what one European diplomat described as "almost a suit." His black jacket had tiny lapels and jetted chest pockets. He did not wear a tie. His attire, which split the difference between the battlefield and the boardroom, could be described as combat formal. Those sartorial details matter when it comes to dealing with the U.S. president, who was upset that Zelenskiy did not wear a suit for their February meeting. Zelenskiy passed the fashion test this time, however. When one journalist in the Oval Office said Zelenskiy looked "fabulous," Trump chimed in to agree. "I said the same thing," Trump told reporters. DIVIDE OVER CEASEFIREThe assembled European leaders, Zelenskiy included, were careful to paper over policy disagreements with Trump, keeping their comments vague and showering the U.S. president with compliments. But one point of disagreement did bubble to the surface. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told the assembled leaders and media that he wanted to see Putin agree to a ceasefire. Trump had long pushed for a ceasefire in Ukraine. But he largely jettisoned that goal after meeting with Putin last week in Alaska, a shift that was widely seen as a diplomatic defeat for Ukraine. The U.S. president now says he is fine trying to move directly to a peace deal. "To be honest, we all would like to see a ceasefire," Merz said. "I can't imagine that the next meeting would take place without a ceasefire, so let's work on that." Trump pushed back, arguing he has solved many conflicts without first reaching a ceasefire. WHOSE BOOTS ON THE GROUND?One of the great mysteries that hung over the summit was what support the U.S. would give to secure any Russia-Ukraine deal long term. Trump hasn't offered U.S. troops' "boots on the ground" to guarantee Ukraine's security from Russia, reflecting American reticence to commit to military entanglements or a head-to-head confrontation with a nuclear power. Instead, he has offered weapons sales and promised that Americans will do business in Ukraine, assurances that Ukrainians see as far less than a security guarantee. Europeans are preparing for a peacekeeping mission backed by their forces. Yet, asked explicitly whether U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine could include U.S. troops in the country, Trump did not rule it out. Instead, he teased an announcement as soon as Monday on the topic. "We'll let you know that, maybe, later today," Trump said. He said Europe was the "first line of defense" but that "we'll be involved." WHAT'S NEXTTrump said he would call Putin and set up a trilateral meeting with Ukraine at a time and place to be determined. Despite some private misgivings, the assembled leaders agreed that such a meeting was a logical next step. Still, the path forward is more complex than Trump and his allies are letting on. For one, Russia has delayed and obstructed high-level meetings with Ukraine in the past, and it was not immediately clear that Putin would actually sit down with Zelenskiy, who he frequently describes as an illegitimate leader. Additionally, it is unclear how much a principal-level meeting would actually advance the cause of peace. The gulf between the Russian and Ukrainian positions is vast. The Kremlin said on Monday the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine is a non-starter, a stance that would be hard for Ukraine to swallow. Russia is also calling for Ukraine to fork over significant chunks of territory that Kyiv controls, another proposal that Ukraine's leaders are not entertaining.

Sovereign bond yields surge most in 14 months on hints of higher government borrowing

1 month 2 weeks ago
Mumbai: Yields on the benchmark Indian sovereign bonds Monday climbed the most in more than 14 months after Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his I-Day address, announced fewer and likely lower slabs for indirect taxes. That could lower federal revenues and fuel the need to borrow more, bank treasury officials said.Yield on the 10-year paper, the risk-free reference frame for pricing loans across the economy, rose about 10 basis points in the sharpest single-day increase since early June 2024. It closed at 6.50% on Monday - a full percentage point more than the policy repo rate - from Thursday's close of 6.40%.One basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point."While the tax reforms are inherently disinflationary and reflect the government's intent to push growth, the immediate worry is the likelihood of higher bond supply at a time when demand from long-only investors has been relatively muted," said V RC Reddy, head of treasury, Karur Vysya Bank, on the rationalisation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) slabs.Sovereign bond yields have risen 13 bps since the start of August, with the bulk of the increase materialising after the latest monetary policy was interpreted by a large section of the markets to signal a long pause in policy rates, despite the consumer inflation gauge persistently undershooting Mint Road's legal mandate.Yields had touched a 4-month high of 6.51% last week, but retreated following S&P's sovereign upgrade.Fiscal Risks"The market's greater concern lies in the risk of fiscal slippage, particularly on account of GST rationalisation," Reddy said.Sovereign bonds, otherwise, should draw investor interest in the aftermath of Trump-Putin talks and a likely thaw in European geopolitics, he said.In his Independence Day speech last Friday, PM Modi announced GST reforms aimed at rationalising the multiple slabs that currently apply to local output of goods and services.To be sure, a slimmer tax structure is expectedly beneficial for millions of Indians stepping on to the consumption ladder for the first time, and some economists believe rebates on salaries and lower producer levies should help offset the expected revenue loss over the longer run.Madhavi Arora, chief economist, Emkay Global, estimates the Centre's FY26 net fiscal slippage of ~0.2% of GDP due to lower direct and indirect taxes. This will likely be offset by revenue buffers in the form of higher dividend and PSU divestment.In the interim, however, higher debt sales should cause yields to harden, she said. "This would further pressure bond yields and reinstate the steepening bias in the near term," Arora said.

How will GST reforms impact Indian stock market and key industries?

1 month 2 weeks ago
Mumbai: India's stock market is abuzz with expectations of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) simplication, with brokerages flagging autos, cement, consumer goods, retail, hotels and financials as the biggest potential beneficiaries.In autos, analysts note that vehicles in the 28% tax slab could see lower rates, lifting demand for two-wheelers, passenger vehicles and tractors. Stocks such as Hero MotoCorp, Maruti Suzuki, M&M and Escorts Kubota are seen as the key gainers."Autos especially two-wheelers stand to benefit the most since price cuts can meaningfully influence buying decisions, while RBI's rate cuts may further support vehicle credit growth," said Christy Mathai, equity fund manager, Quantum AMC. 123374069The Nifty's Auto index advanced the most across sector indices on Monday, jumping 4.2%. Maruti Suzuki soared 8.9%, HeroMotoCorp surged 6% and M&M gained 3.5%. Consumer Durables, Realty and Metals indices rose between 1.8% and 3.4%.While the cement sector stands to gain from improved affordability, a lower tax burden in consumer and retail may spur discretionary spending, lifting demand across FMCG, lifestyle and staples."For consumer durables such as air conditioners, companies are still grappling with high inventory, which will need to be cleared before new tax benefits translate into stronger demand," said Mathai. "While cement may see lower GST as well, though the extent of benefits to end real-estate and infrastructure users remains uncertain."Financials, particularly lenders with large retail loan books, are seen as indirect winners as a GST cut may drive credit growth in autos, housing and consumption. "Insurance could also gain if the long-pending GST reduction on health and general insurance is implemented," said Mathai.

Auto, electronics cos carry wait of GST

1 month 2 weeks ago
Manufacturers of passenger vehicles, television sets and other consumer products are worried consumers may hold off purchases over the next two months in wait for the proposed GST cuts to be put in place.Company executives said this could badly dent demand during peak sale periods such as Ganesh Chaturthi, Onam and Durga Puja festivals this year. The proposed reductions are expected to take effect only by October, at the time of Diwali.The GST Council is slated to meet in the third week of September to finalise new rates, based on recommendations by the group of ministers on rate rationalisation.The government said its aim is to reduce GST on daily use and aspirational products to enhance affordability, and drive consumption by moving towards two tax slabs from the current four.The plan is to facilitate this by scrapping the 28% and 12% slabs and shifting products in these two categories to either the 5% or 18% rate. There will also be a 40% rate for luxury and sin products such as tobacco.The GST Council is the apex decision-making body for the eight-year-old indirect tax. GST 2.0 will be the first major overhaul of the levy.123371779Consumers are most likely to wait for the new rate implementation, unless they have a pressing need, said B Thiagarajan, managing director at air-conditioner maker Blue Star. “While the GST reduction is a welcome move to spur demand, there is a transition time for the new rate implementation,” he said, noting that dealers are now reluctant to add stocks.“Ideally, if the new rates would have been implemented from September 1, the early festive period sales would have been extremely good. But now consumers will wait,” said Thiagarajan.A senior executive at an automaker said that while the industry is not cognisant of the final tax incidence, there is intense speculation, which may force deferment of purchases. “It will impact footfall at dealers… Several customers who were actively enquiring have postponed their decisions, expecting a rate cut,” he said, requesting anonymity.The levy reduction is a boon amid sluggish car and consumer electronics sales. Consumers have been cutting back on discretionary spending with steps such as income tax rate cut and good monsoons failing to trigger a consumption spurt so far. Passenger vehicle sales growth has turned negative from May.According to government officials, small cars up to 4 metres length with up to 1200cc engine capacities are likely to be placed in the 18% bracket, compared to the current 28%, and 1-3% compensation cess.Larger vehicles are likely to be taxed at a special rate of 40%, instead of 43-50% currently. Even two-wheelers are likely to come down to 18%, from 28% plus a cess for some models now. Only taxes on electric vehicles are likely to remain at the current 5%.Among electronic appliances, products such as ACs, television sets of more than 32-inch screen size, and dishwashers attract 28% GST. Here too, industry experts expect a drop to 18%. Products such as refrigerators, up to 32-inch TVs and washing machines are already in this slab.Sales will get impacted during the interim period of revised GST rate implementation, said Satish NS, president at Haier India. He is, however, hopeful of a pent-up demand surge during Diwali, by when the new rates should be rolled out. “The benefits of tax reduction can be passed on to consumers without any lag as soon as they are notified,” he said. Haier India has started reviewing its business plans for large-screen TVs, expecting a spike in sales.A senior auto industry executive said on condition of anonymity that while the rate cut is a welcome measure, the timing is a challenge. “The market is already slow. The government has indicated that the new levies will come into force around Diwali,” the executive said. “Our fear is that customers across segments will defer purchases. Sales are likely to get disrupted for the next two months.”The festive season, India’s biggest consumption period, is falling earlier this year. It usually starts with Ganesh Chaturthi in Maharashtra, which is in August this year, followed by Onam, Navratri-Durga Puja—which are all in September, peaking with Diwali in October. This entire period contributes 25-35% of annual sales.Online-focused TV manufacturer Super Plastronics is expecting sales to decline over the next month compared to 4% and 12% growth in the last two months, said Avneet Singh Marwah, its chief executive. The company is licensed to sell brands such as Kodak, Thomson and Blaupunkt.
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