ET NEWS

Mumbai: October may bring some relief for equity investors, with seasonality trends pointing to a higher probability of gains in the month.In the past 10 years, the benchmark Nifty and the broader Nifty 500 have closed higher in seven of the past 10 occasions during the month. Yet, analysts said market action in the coming weeks could be constrained, with indices likely stuck in a narrow range in the absence of fresh catalysts."As we step into October, the Nifty is expected to remain in the 24,300-25,400 range," said Sriram Velayudhan, senior vice president, IIFL Capital Services. "Factors like lack of clarity on tariff resolution, FII selling and a busy primary market pipeline could also keep indices range-bound." This month, large IPOs such as Tata Capital, LG and WeWork are scheduled to hit the market.Data from Motilal Oswal Financial Services showed that the Nifty and Nifty 500 in October have delivered average gains of 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively, over the past decade.In September, the Nifty and Nifty 500 gained 0.8% and 1.2% respectively. 124245537"A recovery from current levels looks likely, given the recent correction, potential GST-led momentum, and festive-driven consumption," said Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivatives research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Taparia noted that immediate support for the Nifty is at 24,400, with potential to move towards 25,250 in the near term.In contrast, US benchmarks have shown mixed seasonality in October. The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 have gained in only five of the past ten years, though average returns for all three indices have been positive, between 1.3% and 2%."While US indices witness mixed seasonality in October, such patterns have historically had limited spillover into Indian markets," said Taparia.Velayudhan added that the earnings season will also be closely watched. "In the event of progress on tariff resolution by the end of the month, a recovery rally cannot be ruled out," he said.

Mumbai: Axis Bank is reassessing its plans to sell a stake in its non-banking subsidiary Axis Finance, as it waits for greater clarity on the Reserve Bank of India's upcoming "forms of business" circular.The rethink comes after potential investors, who had shown interest in the transaction, sought regulatory clarity before arriving at valuations."Potential investors have made it clear that they want regulatory clarity before putting a number on the table. Without that, it's difficult for them to firm up valuations," said a person aware of the matter.Axis Bank did not respond to a request for comment.RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra recently signalled that the circular was in the works. "The forms of business circular is also planned to be finalised quickly," Malhotra said on August 25.As reported by ET in its June 27 edition, Axis Bank had committed to the RBI that it would not infuse additional capital into Axis Finance and was working on a plan to raise Rs 3,000 crore. The lender was exploring a strategic sale to private equity investors, with a potential IPO at a later stage."As per its growth plans, Axis Finance will need a couple of thousand crores of capital over the next few years," Amitabh Chaudhry, MD & CEO of Axis Bank, had told ET in an earlier interview. "We are in no position to infuse further capital because that is the commitment we have made to RBI. We have no option but to go to the market and try to raise the capital. We are running a process right now to do that. When we are talking to the potential investors, we have been quite clear that we will do what is best for the entity concerned and we do not want to destroy value in any form or shape."The commitment to the RBI stems from draft guidelines issued last October on forms of business and prudential regulation for investments. These rules have weighed on valuations of bank subsidiaries by restricting them from undertaking core lending activities and discouraging duplication of businesses between banks and their NBFC arms.Products such as gold loans, loans against property and two-wheeler loans are currently offered by both Axis Bank and its finance subsidiary.In July, media reports suggested that global private equity giants including Blackstone, Advent, EQT and Kedaara had expressed interest in acquiring a 20% stake in Axis Finance.The sector, however, has seen valuation headwinds. Recently, HDB Financial Services hit the market at a steep discount-nearly 40% lower than its price in the unlisted market.

Mumbai: The market for unlisted shares, long seen as a sure bet, is facing a reality check. In recent months, marquee names such as Tata Capital and HDB Financial Services have set initial public offering (IPO) price bands significantly below their unlisted market levels, denting investor sentiment and forcing a rethink on how companies are valued in this unregulated space.These instances have dried up the demand for even some of the most popular unlisted companies, while their shares have mostly edged lower in recent times. This marks a sharp reversal from a few months ago, when investors were scooping up these shares on platforms that specialise in gray markets stocks, despite concerns about the market being overheated.124245305Among the popular names in the space are National Stock Exchange (NSE), Groww, SBI Asset Management and Cochin International Airport Ltd (CIAL). NSE-the hot favourite-is down nearly 5% in the past month, with speculation about a regulatory clampdown on weekly equity derivatives contributing to the soured mood. SBI Mutual Fund is down 2% in the past month, while shares of the IPO-bound broking firm Groww are down 12% in the past two days since Tata Capital announced its price band.Tata Capital, the financial services arm of Tata group, announced its price band at ₹310-326 per share. It came at a discount of nearly 56% to the ₹735 levels at which the stock was trading in the unlisted market.Similarly, HDB Financial, another listing from the HDFC Group stable, had earlier taken a similar approach, fixing its IPO band at around 40% lower than its prevailing unlisted price. The IPO price band for HDB Financial Services was fixed at ₹700-740, while the shares were trading at ₹1,225 in the unlisted market. "The lower pricing of IPOs will have a lasting effect on the minds of investors and intermediaries in the unlisted market," said Vaqarjaved Khan, senior analyst, Angel One. "Investors will be less speculative in the unlisted market, and pricing will be more realistic."National Securities Depository (NSDL) announced its IPO price band at ₹760-800, a substantial 22% discount to its last traded price of ₹1,025 in the unlisted market.The contrast between unlisted prices and IPO bands has cast doubt on the sustainability of such premiums. Investors in the unlisted market are clearly disappointed with Tata Capital's IPO pricing, said Ankit Garg, CEO, Wealthy Nivesh PMS."Many had been expecting a price closer to the levels at which its shares have been trading privately, and the announced band comes in significantly below that," he said. "This has left some unlisted shareholders questioning the premium they paid in the past and weighing the impact on their potential returns. This along with the HDB listing has ensured that a lot of hype built in the unlisted market, which was not justified by valuations, is taken care of." Analysts said the divergence could dent the dynamics of pre-IPO investing.

After sporting superstars Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma exited T20 internationals and Tests, India's next generation of cricketers is stepping into the endorsement spotlight. Eager to plug the vacuum left by two of the country's biggest sporting icons, experts said advertisers are aligning with younger stars who appeal directly to Gen-Z consumers.The team's Asia Cup triumph is set to lift advertiser confidence in cricketers.Shubman Gill is expected to see a surge in his brand endorsement value. Industry executives peg his endorsement fee at nearly ₹5 crore for a single day of engagement annually, placing him in a rarefied league of commercial athletes. His social media following and clean, aspirational image have made him a go-to choice for top-tier brands.Suryakumar Yadav, India's T20 captain and one of the format's most destructive batters, remains hot property too, commanding about ₹1.5 crore for a day's association.Experts say these stars' proven match-winning ability keeps them relevant across categories ranging from beverages to tech-driven consumer products.Both Gill and Yadav endorse over a dozen brands each while Abhishek Sharma and Tilak Varma have featured in campaigns of brands like Realme, Birla Opus, John Jacob's, and Big Basket.Emerging faces are beginning to make their mark as well. Tilak, valued at around ₹1 crore for a two-day association, has built his reputation on reliability, while Abhishek, priced at ₹1.5 crore for a two-day association, has captured attention with his fearless batting and Gen-Z connect.Both are already drawing interest from fashion, fintech, and digital-first brands that see them as cultural connectors as much as athletes, say executives aware of discussions."The retirement of Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma from multiple formats has created a vacuum in the endorsement ecosystem. Gen-Z cricketers such as Shubman Gill, Suryakumar Yadav, Abhishek Sharma, and Tilak Varma are stepping into that space, not merely as sporting icons but as cultural touchpoints. Their resonance with younger audiences positions them as multi-category assets, appealing equally to FMCG, fashion, fintech, and digital-first brands seeking to embed themselves in contemporary youth culture," said PMG Sports CEO Melroy Dsouza.The shift reflects a wider trend in sports marketing. Athlete endorsements in India jumped 32% in 2024 to ₹1,224 crore, according to GroupM, with cricket continuing to dominate.According to market estimates, top cricketers like Kohli and Sharma charge anywhere between ₹3.5 crore and ₹7 crore per endorsement deal."Rising talents such as Gill and Yadav are poised to draw a wider slate of endorsements, while emerging names like Abhishek Sharma and Tilak Varma, who also carry a strong regional persona that endears them to local brands, are beginning to command growing interest," said Ajimon Francis, managing director, Brand Finance India."Unlike earlier generations, this crop of cricketers is approaching fame as a multi-channel business. Their focus, industry insiders say, is on leveraging popularity to build lasting value rather than chasing short-term visibility," he noted.The retirements of Kohli and Sharma have left an undeniable void, but advertisers see it as an opening. For brands seeking to embed themselves in contemporary youth culture, Gen-Z cricketers are not just athletes. They are lifestyle icons with pan-India reach and digital-first appeal.Some experts feel that consistency and not one-off performances build long-term value.

A strong earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 6.7 shook the central Philippines Tuesday night, sending people dashing out into streets, damaging a stone church and knocking out power in some areas.The earthquake was centred about 17 kilometres northeast of Bogo city in Cebu province, and was caused by movement in a local fault. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said it expected damage and aftershocks.Power went out in the Cebu province town of Daanbantayan, where the stone church is located. The extent of the damage to the church was not immediately known.— QuakeAlerts (@QuakeAlerts) The Philippines, one of the world's most disaster-prone countries, is often hit by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions due to its location on the Pacific "Ring of Fire," an arc of seismic faults around the ocean. The archipelago is also lashed by about 20 typhoons and storms each year.