ET NEWS

While US President Donald Trump’s announcement on talks with Iran brought much-needed relief to stock markets and oil prices, some traders may have benefitted from the news even before it was out. ‘Mystery’ bets in oil futures and S&P 500 futures made just before Trump’s announcement have raised eyebrows over possible insider trading.Trump said on Monday that the US and Iran had very good and productive conversations over the last two days regarding the “complete and total resolution” of the rising hostilities in the Middle East. He announced that the US is postponing all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. After the announcement, oil futures crashed up to 15% to fall below the key $100 per barrel mark, while Wall Street rallied.However, market analysts noted some mysterious bets made just before the announcement. Just five minutes before Trump’s announcement, S&P 500 futures worth $1.5 billion were bought, while oil futures worth $192 million were sold, according to trading platform Unusual Whales.Around 6,200 futures contracts linked to Brent and WTI crude were traded in a few seconds before Trump’s announcement, according to a report by the Financial Times. The notional value of these trades was estimated at $580 million, the report further said, adding that it remains unclear whether the trades were executed by a single or multiple participants.Hence, S&P futures were bought at significantly lower levels minutes before they rallied sharply after Trump’s announcement, according to reports. Oil futures, meanwhile, were sold at sharply higher levels just before they tumbled.The Economic Times could not independently verify the reports.White House spokesperson Kush Desai dismissed the allegations of insider trading. “The White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off insider knowledge, and any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting,” he said.Notably, this is not the first time such trades have raised eyebrows before Trump’s announcements. Before the US and Israel conducted joint military strikes on Iran on March 3, killing its former supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and beginning the war in the oil-rich Middle East, several mysterious bets were placed on prediction-market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, making millions for investors betting on the outcome of the conflict.After Trump’s announcement, Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said no negotiations have been held with the US. “No negotiations have been held with the US, and fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped,” Ghalibaf said in a post on X.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Gold traded higher on Tuesday amid positive global cues, rising by over Rs 1,200 per 10 grams intraday to hit the day’s high of Rs 1,40,482 on the MCX. Gold’s safe-haven appeal has taken a hit since the onset of the Iran–Israel/US war, contrary to expectations of a bull rally during a time of crisis.April gold futures slipped below the Rs 1,40,000 mark on Monday on the MCX. The metal has sharply corrected from its all-time peak of Rs 1,93,096, falling by Rs 56,800 or about 29%.Meanwhile, COMEX gold is hovering around the $4,420.10 per ounce mark. With the war now in its fourth week, spot gold is down 15%, while it has fallen 22% from its January record high, according to a Reuters report.The rupee’s continued weakness has also failed to support bullion prices, despite the INR hitting new lifetime lows almost daily.Trivedi said its volatility against the US dollar amplifies moves in MCX gold, and even minor global price shifts translate into sharper domestic swings, increasing intraday and weekly volatility.Commenting on the current trends, Jateen Trivedi, Vice President and Research Analyst at LKP Securities, said gold has witnessed a sharp corrective decline after recent highs, breaking below key short-term supports and entering a volatile phase. The market is now reacting to mixed geopolitical signals — initial escalation between the US–Israel, and Iran followed by unconfirmed de-escalation talks — creating sharp two-way moves, he said.In his view, gold is currently caught between supportive factors such as geopolitical risk premiums and negative factors like de-escalation talks reducing safe-haven demand, along with inflation concerns keeping rate cuts uncertain. “This creates a high-volatility, non-directional environment,” he added.Annualized Actual Volatility (AAV), which measures gold’s volatility on the MCX, has risen 43% over the past five trading sessions.Trivedi suggested the following near-term strategy for traders based on gold’s current price performance:1) Key support & resistancePrices have broken down from the Rs 1,60,000+ zone and are now trading near Rs 1,39,000, indicating a clear short-term downtrend with panic unwinding. Immediate resistance is seen at Rs 1,42,500, while major resistance is at Rs 1,45,000. Immediate support is placed at Rs 1,38,000, with major support at Rs 1,37,500.The current structure suggests range-bound volatility after the breakdown, rather than an immediate trend reversal, he opined.2) Momentum indicatorThe RSI is near 29, entering oversold territory. This indicates selling exhaustion may emerge, but does not confirm a reversal — it only increases the probability of sharp pullback rallies. Prices have moved to the lower band with expansion, indicating strong volatility and trend acceleration. Such moves are typically followed by short-term mean reversion or sideways consolidation.3) Technically speakingEMA 8: Sharp downward slope, acting as immediate resistanceEMA 21: Also turning down, confirming a bearish structurePrices trading well below both EMAs signal trend weakness and a sell-on-rise bias.4) MACDThe MACD is in negative territory with a widening histogram, indicating strong bearish momentum. There are no signs of a reversal yet, but oversold conditions may trigger short-covering.Gold trading strategyGold is likely to remain highly volatile within this band as markets react to conflicting geopolitical updates and macro signals.The expected trading range is Rs 1,37,500 – Rs 1,42,500.Selling pressure is expected in the Rs 1,42,000 – Rs 1,42,500 range.Short covering or buying support is likely to emerge at Rs 1,37,500 – Rs 1,38,000.He suggested that traders adopt a range-bound approach rather than aggressive directional bets, and maintain strict risk management, given headline-driven volatility.(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own and do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)