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Two back-to-back events—the union budget, and the finalisation of the India-US trade deal—have put the spotlight on various stocks and sectors that are poised to benefit. Here are the top 15 high conviction stock ideas from leading brokerages following the key events this week. These stocks are forecast to return 10-37% from here.127963676

NEW DELHI: India and the US are expected to finalise and sign a joint statement on the first part of the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) in four-five days and aim to conclude a formal, legally binding pact by midMarch, commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said Thursday.“India and the US are having a meaningful dialogue. The first tranche of the BTA is almost ready. We will finalise and sign the joint statement in fourfive days. Based on the joint statement, the next leg of the partnership will start,” Goyal said.The formal agreement is being drafted, a process that may take a month or a month and a half. “We plan to sign the formal agreement by mid-March,” he said. The minister ruled out any investment commitments in the pact.The US will slash tariffs on India to 18% from 50% after the joint statement is signed virtually on the first part of the BTA. Washington will issue an executive order to implement the lower tariffs on India a day or two after the joint statement. “Indian tariff reductions (will happen) only after a legal agreement,” said commerce secretary Rajesh Agrawal. Indian tariffs are most favoured nation (MFN) levies and US import duties are executive tariffs, he said.A Key Milestone“We hope to do things fast because there are further concessions that we will get after the legal agreement,” Goyal said.Also Read: India sets sail to add more trade muscle as it signs FTA terms with Gulf Cooperation CouncilPrime Minister Narendra Modi and US president Donald Trump announced the trade deal on Monday. This had been preceded by longdrawn negotiations and marred by Trump’s decision to slap 50% tariffs on Indian goods in August, half of that being a penalty for buying Russian oil that’s also being dropped.“Out of friendship and respect for Prime Minister Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced Reciprocal Tariff, lowering it from 25% to 18%,” Trump had said in his post on Truth Social Monday.127952022Modi had welcomed the move.“Delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%,” he posted on X on Monday.“When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation.”'US-India trade deal in final stages', says Jaishankar; expected to be completed 'soon'Calling the accord a milestone, Goyal said India has already entered into a record eight trade agreements, and the first part of the BTA with the US will soon become the ninth.The US is India’s largest export destination. India exported goods worth $86.5 billion to the US in FY25 while importing goods worth $45.6 billion.$500 BILLION PURCHASESPurchases of US goods worth $500 billion, which Trump had mentioned in his posts, exclude agriculture, Indian officials said.The minister said to meet the $500 billion bilateral trade target as set out in February 2025, India will certainly need to step up exports and sourcing.The US is expected to emerge as a major supplier with a 25% share in India’s estimated procurement of $2 trillion in five years of oil, LPG, LNG, aircraft, smartphones, laptops, semiconductor components and data centre equipment. India currently buys $300 billion of these products annually from several countries.Given India’s rapid growth pace, the country will need large volumes of energy, data centre equipment, and ICT (information and communication technology) products, Goyal said.“Our steel capacity will double from today's 140 million tonnes to about 300 million tonnes in the next few years,” Goyal said. “And therefore, when we estimated what we will need from the US, we came to a figure of at least $500 billion. We can clearly see before our eyes the potential that we can procure from the US over the next five years.”India’s aircraft orders could account for a big chunk.“Orders placed on Boeing, and yet to be placed but ready, are nearly $70-80 billion. If you add the engines and other spare parts, it will probably cost $100 billion,” Goyal said, while pointing out that the budget had announced substantial concessions for data centres.

Budget 2026 is a business-as-usual exercise that increases some outlays, announces some new schemes, corrects some duty perversions, contains the fiscal deficit, and undertakes to devolve resources recommended by the Finance Commission to states. It gets a thumbs up by normal standards.But these are not normal times. We are experiencing what Mark Carney at Davos called a rupture in the global order. Trump has demolished old certainties about geopolitical alliances and enmities. No erstwhile US ally - European, West Asian or Asian - can count on Marines rushing to their rescue in the event of hostilities that, just a year ago, would have triggered intervention by the world's most powerful military. Every nation is scrambling to enhance its capacity to defend itself.While never an ally of the US, India had grown accustomed to considering itself a partner, not just formally in a grouping like Quad but in a comprehensive campaign, in general, to pre-empt any military adventurism by China in the Indo-Pacific. India's rise as an economic and military power is widely understood as a necessary condition to keep China's rise peaceful. Trump has ploughed such assumptions deep underground.Russia has been a reliable source of support. But Russia is beholden to China, for supplying critical inputs to its war against Ukraine. China has consistently dragged its feet over settling the border dispute with India, builds up and arms Pakistan as a convenient force multiplier, and engages with India's other neighbours in South Asia to neutralise them, if not turn them against India.India has to build up its strategic capacity, double-quick: buy and build arms, rid its communications and weapons systems of dependence on Chinese electronics, create a satellite constellation in low-Earth orbit to monitor developments on the ground, spot and lock in on targets, and supply vital battlefield communications, including to drones used by individual soldiers or patrol units.Simultaneously, there is strategic and economic challenge from AI. It's essential for commercial entities to develop AI applications that ride on foundation models from Western tech firms, and even open-source models available from China. But AI is increasingly used for military purposes. For that, India cannot rely on any model that can be withheld or corrupted by an external agent. India must develop its own.AI is a product of the computing capacity derived    from armies of high-speed, parallel processing chips housed in data centres, and programming. India has neither. But it has the potential to create both.India's semiconductor missions are ridiculous. The only reason to build chips in India, rather than import them, is to shield ourselves from weaponised technology access of the kind the US has used against China. That purpose is not served by handing over billions of dollars to foreign chip companies to set up low-end fabs in India. That money is better spent on developing our own chip-making ecosystem.A thought-through semiconductor mission would start with identifying every single element of the chip-making ecosystem, assemblies in each one of them, sub-assemblies and components. Fund five startups to develop every single item in this array, ranging from extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, lenses used to focus the laser to etch grooves on silicon wafers, to the kit to deposit vaporised metal in grooves and clean up afterwards.Not all of them will deliver. Some funds would be swallowed by the well-connected. But in this process of reinventing the wheel, India would create indigenous capability to keep innovating beyond the existing frontiers in this field.Can India do this? China has. Foreign companies have set up high-end R&D centres in their GCCs in India, employing Indian talent. What prevents Indian enterprise from doing this? Only the missing vision, courage and funding. Instead of luring foreign chip companies to set up shop in India, let GoI lure Indian tech talent working at the cutting edge in many parts of the world, to lead startups that would deliver Indian AI.All this calls for large amounts of money, which cannot be found by business-as-usual budgets. Given the strategic imperative, extraordinary measures have to be taken. GoI must draw back from its populist trespass into state subjects, and mindless subsidies, such as that for urea, which depresses nutrient use efficiency and inhibits the spread of complex fertilisers.It must put an end to the ethanol-blending farce, which only serves to reduce the crop under oilseeds and increase prices of maize, chicken feed, eggs and chicken. More than half of ethanol is derived from grain, including rice, all grown with subsidised, energy-intensive water and fertiliser.When Lal Bahadur Shastri called on people to hand over their gold to finance the war thrust upon India, Indians responded. India today faces a similar existential crisis. Indians will respond with sacrifice - provided it is shared by all sections, and funds are utilised wisely.Reorienting the budget is politics, not economics. It calls for political courage, honesty of purpose, and articulate engagement with the public. Is that too much to expect?

The government has expanded the criteria for recognising entities as startups by doubling the turnover threshold to Rs 200 crore, according to a notification.A new recognition of 'Deep Tech Startup' has also been introduced for entities working on cutting-edge and breakthrough technologies, the notification of the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) said.The age and turnover limit criteria for such Deep Tech Startups have also been significantly expanded.According to the notification, the age limit has been extended from 10 years to 20 years from the date of incorporation or registration, and the turnover limit has been enhanced to Rs 300 crore."This step addresses the unique requirements of deep tech entities operating in areas with long gestation periods, high R&D intensity, and capital-intensive development cycles," the DPIIT said.Further to support innovation-driven growth at the grassroots in agriculture, allied sectors, rural industries, and community-based enterprises, the government has extended startup recognition eligibility to cooperative enterprises.Accordingly, certain categories of cooperatives are now eligible for recognition as startups, subject to conditions.It includes multi-state cooperative societies registered under the Multi-State Cooperative Societies Act, 2002, and cooperative societies registered under State and Union Territory Cooperative Acts, it added."Keeping in view the evolving startup ecosystem and the need to support startups with targeted benefits at various stages of their business lifecycle, the turnover limit for recognition as a startup has been increased from Rs 100 crore to Rs 200 crore," it added.Over the last decade, India's startup ecosystem has shifted toward longer innovation cycles, higher capital intensity, and delayed commercialisation, particularly in deep technology, manufacturing, and R&D-driven sectors.Several innovation-led enterprises currently outgrow existing age or turnover limits while still in critical development or validation stages, resulting in premature loss of recognition and access to policy support.The decision follows extensive consultations held with various stakeholders in the startup ecosystem, as well as different ministries and departments.The updated criteria are expected to expand access to startup benefits for research and innovation-driven enterprises; support deep tech ventures requiring extended development timelines; enable cooperatives to lead innovation in agriculture, rural development and allied sectors, it said.It added that as Startup India enters its second decade, these reforms are intended to provide a more predictable, inclusive and future-ready policy environment for founders and to attract long-term patient capital into high-technology and R&D-intensive sectors.So far, about two lakh entities have been recognised as startups.Recognised startups are eligible for a number of incentives, such as income tax benefits under the Startup India initiative by the department.

Shares of InterGlobe Aviation ended nearly 1 per cent lower on Thursday after the Competition Commission ordered a detailed probe against IndiGo for unfair business practices.The stock dropped 3.65 per cent to Rs 4,782.45 during the day on the BSE. It later trimmed most of the early losses and ended at Rs 4,933.95, down 0.60 per cent.At the NSE, shares of the company ended at Rs 4,932.20, registering a drop of 0.57 per cent. The stock had declined 3.63 per cent to Rs 4,780.30 apiece in intra-day trade.The Competition Commission on Wednesday ordered a detailed probe against IndiGo for unfair business practices, nearly two months after the country's largest airline cancelled thousands of flights due to operational issues, causing hardships to passengers.After taking into consideration data related to airlines and those provided by the aviation regulator DGCA, the Competition Commission of India (CCI) has prima facie concluded that IndiGo has abused its dominant position.In a 16-page order, CCI said that by cancelling thousands of flights, which constituted a significant portion of the scheduled capacity, IndiGo effectively withheld its services from the market, creating an artificial scarcity, limiting consumer access to air travel during peak demand."Such conduct by a dominant enterprise may be viewed as restricting the provision of services under Section 4 (2) (b)(i) of the Act," the regulator said.Section 4 of the Competition Act pertains to abuse of dominant position.Noting that prima facie the airline's conduct seems to be causing an appreciable adverse effect on competition in India, CCI ordered a detailed investigation by its Director General (DG).