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Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India's December rate cut was perhaps the last in the recent easing cycle, with economists expecting a pause, citing a slight uptick in inflationary pressures amid elevated commodity prices and a weaker rupee, and improving growth prospects. Eleven of 14 economists polled by ET expect no further reduction in the policy rate in the coming months. Proposed trade deals with the USA, the European Union and others have increased growth prospects, thus reducing pressure on the central bank to lower rates to push growth, economists said. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI on Friday kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% after lowering it 125 basis points in the last one year. "The upward revision of inflation and GDP growth forecast gives a hawkish tilt to the policy and indicates monetary policy easing is largely behind us," said Amit Somani, deputy head of fixed income at Tata Asset Management.128091207 Among the 11 economists Within who expect 5.25% as the terminal rate, six said the RBI is likely to remain guided by evolving growth-inflation dynamics. With GDP base years under revision, the true momentum of economic growth remains uncertain, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause rather than a renewed easing cycle, they said. Noting the momentum in private consumption, steady rural demand and improving agriculture activity, the central bank increased the GDP growth projections for the first and second quarters of FY27 by 20 basis points each to 6.9% and 7%, respectively. Inflation projection was also revised higher for FY26 to 2.1% from 2%. For the ongoing quarter, CPI is now projected at 3.2%, up from 2.9%. "While uncertainty remains on the growth-inflation figures as we await the new series, the uptick in commodity prices and weaker currency may pose upside risks to inflation," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. A small minority, however, still expects one final rate cut, arguing that growth could slow once the new GDP base year is factored in. Elevated geopolitical uncertainty also risks weighing on economic activity. This leaves room for limited additional easing, taking the repo rate to 5%. "The MPC meeting came against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, inflation below the lower end of the MPC tolerance band, and volatile currency markets," said Sachin Bajaj, chief investment officer at Axis Max Life Insurance. "We anticipate a final 25 basis point cut in the repo rate to 5% during the early part of the next financial year to address growth concerns emanating from the uncertain global environment," he said. Nomura, too, expects one more cut as "we await the implications of the new CPI and GDP series." The brokerage has assigned a 65% probability to its baseline.

ET Intelligence Group: Shares of seafood companies fell 3-7% on Friday after a sharp four-day rally that followed euphoria over the India-US trade deal announcement on February 2. Despite a better medium term outlook due to the deal, which is expected to boost marine exports from India, investors are observing caution given the near-term challenges including margin pressure amid intense competition. The sector's outlook will hinge on how the trade negotiations progress and the American tariff stance for other seafood-exporting nations. The trade deal between the two nations is crucial for the Indian marine exports since the US is India's largest market with 36.3% share in FY25, according to the data from the government's Niryat (exports) portal. In addition, frozen shrimp makes up nearly two-thirds of India's marine shipments to the US. India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) expects a lower tariff rate to improve India's cost position relative to Ecuador, Vietnam and Indonesia. This may also help reverse the slowdown in exports seen between August and November 2025 when Indian shipments to the US sharply declined amid effective duty rates as high as 58% compared with 18-49% for other exporting countries. Ind-Ra also expects the shrimp processing industry to fare better than its earlier forecast of a 12% year-on-year revenue decline and a 150-basis points margin compression for FY26. Improved order visibility is also likely to ease working-capital pressures.128091119 According to CareEdge, shrimp exports to the US rose 5% during the five months to August and then fell by 35% in August over July 2025, following strong frontloading of volumes ahead of higher reciprocal US tariffs. Indian exporters shifted towards other countries, but it affected profitability given that the US market generates higher value. This is reflected in the financial performance of top marine exporters. Revenue growth for a sample of six exporters improved year-on-year for two quarters to September 2025, but margins softened, with average operating margin before depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda margin) slipping to 5.3% in the September quarter from 6.7% in the June quarter. Though the trade deal has boosted hopes of a US market recovery, with the peak holiday season over and global demand set to soften in 2026, analysts expect the rebound to be gradual. Shares of marine exporters jumped 6-31% on the BSE in five trading sessions since February 2, following the announcement of the India-US trade deal. Avanti Feeds and Waterbase were the top gainers, rising 31% and 27% respectively, while Sharat Industries and Coastal Corporation saw comparatively smaller gains of about 6% and 10%.

Mumbai: Tata Sons chairman N Chandrasekaran is stepping up direct involvement with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) as a priority to steer India’s largest IT company through a vulnerable phase and ring-fence the group’s largest cash generator at a time when artificial intelligence (AI) threatens established business models, said people with knowledge of the matter.The renewed focus includes bolstering the role of TCS as default AI partner for Tata Group companies, they said. It will also explore acquisitions of AI-focused startups to accelerate the AI pivot, they said.“The legacy business model of TCS cannot stay the way it was,” said a highly placed executive close to the matter. “Chandrasekaran has told his top team to do what it takes to grow and defend its turf.”Addressing more than 700 TCS employees at an annual company event in Dubai over the weekend, Chandrasekaran stressed the need for continuous upskilling to prepare for the impact of AI.The Tata Group remains highly dependent on TCS dividends to support its diverse portfolio and cannot afford any erosion in the company’s relevance among global clients, a concern firmly on the radar of holding company Tata Sons, said the people cited. As it enters a critical phase, TCS has gained primacy, with Chandrasekaran keen to ensure its growth strategy stays firmly on track amid rapid shifts in technology and client demands.Growth StrategyTCS chief executive officer K Krithivasan and chief operating officer Aarti Subramanian are seen as Chandrasekaran’s trusted lieutenants.They worked closely with him during Chandrasekaran’s stint as TCS chief executive and are expected to drive rigorous, end-to-end execution of the strategy.AI research labs are rapidly climbing up the AI value chain with products such as Anthropic’s Claude Cowork that are threatening to become direct competitors to legacy IT services and software vendors. This could potentially weaken the company’s standing in the global technology ecosystem if it does not move decisively, said the people cited.Triggered by the Claude Cowork announcement, Indian technology stocks got battered on February 4 as part of a worldwide selloff, with the Nifty IT index plunging as much as 8% and nearly Rs 2 lakh crore in market value was wiped out in the sector’s worst selloff since the March 2020 Covid-19 crash. TCS fell to its lowest level in five years, although stocks have seen a modest recovery since.New capabilitiesUS-based firms such as Palantir Technologies and Goldman Sachs have already demonstrated how they are upending third-party software by building proprietary AI offerings or solutions developed in partnership with Anthropic. The recent selloff in global software stocks is a stark reminder that merely rebranding “IT services” as “AI services” is not enough. Companies will need to invest in innovation, build new capabilities and pivot to new operating models to truly differentiate themselves, experts said.Before taking charge at Tata Sons in 2017, Chandrasekaran was at the helm of TCS since 2009, spearheading its growth across geographies.“He has always had his finger on the pulse at TCS, but these are extraordinary times, and he is closely involved with the pivot TCS is on,” said one of the people cited.As of 2024, Tata Sons owned 71.74% of TCS, and close to 80% of Tata Sons’ dividend income was derived from the IT services firm. Tata Sons and TCS declined to comment.TCS has undertaken several pivots to adapt to changing realities, including workforce rationalisation, investments in data centre infrastructure, a sharper focus on consulting, and acquisitions to add capabilities. It took over Coastal Cloud, a Salesforce consulting firm, for $700 million, its largest acquisition to date, in January.It had bought US-based ListEngage for $72.8 million in October — its first acquisition in nearly a decade. It has formed a $2.1 billion joint venture with private equity firm TPG to build data centres in India.The pace of AI execution needs to accelerate, said Pareekh Jain, founder and chief executive of IT research firm EIIR Trend.“TCS, being the largest Indian IT services provider, faces more challenges than others,” he said. “Other large IT firms are giving it tough competition in its core area of large deals. TCS is caught in the middle.”Its traditional strength in large deals is being challenged by more agile players, while the restructuring, though ahead of competitors, is yet to deliver results, Jain said.“TCS needs to significantly increase the velocity of restructuring to lead in AI-led disruption,” he said.Yugal Joshi, partner at IT consulting firm Everest Group, said TCS’ key business area of application maintenance is facing compression and is under attack by peers.“Unlike earlier when peers thought they could not displace TCS as incumbent, they have now become more confident,” Joshi said. “Though TCS continues to win large deals in the UK and other regions, its historical delivery-led success is under strain. Many account teams have let go of resources with no backfills. I do not think they are witnessing materially different headwinds than others, but their response could be better.”

New Delhi: Spiralling healthcare costs in India have caught the attention of political leaders. With an aim to address the ever increasing out of pocket medical expenses, Member of Parliament (MP) Ajeet Gopchade has introduced the National Medical Pricing and Regulation Commission bill, 2026 that-seeks to establish an independent National Medical Pricing and Regulation Commission which will be empowered to fix, regulate and oversee medical charges, ensure mandatory public disclosure of approved rates, adjudicate complaints related to overcharging and enforce compliance through penalties and refunds."I have, respectfully submitted-the National Medical Pricing and Regulation Commission Bill, 2026 to further advance fairness, transparency, and affordability in healthcare for our countrymen," Gopchade told ET.The bill proposes to establish an independent National Medical Pricing and Regulation Commission, to be chaired by a retired Judge of the Supreme Court of India, with corresponding State and Union Territory Commissions chaired by retired Judges of the High Courts.The move gains significance as healthcare affordability in India is emerging as a matter of grave concern. While the Clinical Establishments (Registration and Regulation) Act, 2010 provides for registration and minimum standards of healthcare institutions, it does not establish a statutory authority for regulating or rationalising medical charges."In the absence of an independent price-regulating framework, hospitals and allied healthcare establishments levy widely divergent and non-transparent charges for similar medical services, diagnostics, procedures, room rent, implants and consumables. Such practices have resulted in financial hardship to patients and have undermined equitable access to healthcare, which forms an integral component of the right to life under Article 21 of the Constitution," the proposed bill said.As per the proposed private member bill submitted by parliamentarian Gopchade-the National Commission will be liable to frame, notify, and periodically revise national guidelines for the rationalisation, transparency, and standardisation of medical and healthcare charges across public and private healthcare establishments.It will prescribe principles, methodologies, and benchmarks for cost-based and value-based pricing of healthcare services, procedures, diagnostics, and allied services, ensuring affordability, quality, and financial sustainability.The commission will also be responsible to supervise, monitor, and evaluate the functioning and compliance of State and Union Territory Healthcare Pricing Commissions, and to issue directions necessary for ensuring uniformity and effective implementation of national policy.As per the proposed bill every hospital, nursing home, clinic, diagnostic centre, and allied healthcare establishment, registered or required to be registered under the Clinical Establishments (Registration and Regulation) Act, shall mandatorily register with the respective State or Union Territory Commission.The registered establishment will be liable to pay an annual regulatory fee, as prescribed by the State or Union Territory Commission with the prior approval of the National Commission, for the purpose of meeting the administrative, regulatory, inspection, and enforcement expenses of the Commissions.As per the proposed bill any establishment charging beyond the approved limits shall be liable to monetary penalties. If caught over charging they will have to refund of excess amount to the patient with interest. The hospital may lose its registration if they are caught in any wrongdoing.