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Inflation has risen in three of the last four months and is slightly higher than it was a year ago, when it helped sink then-Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign. Yet you wouldn't know it from listening to President Donald Trump or even some of the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve. Trump told the United Nations General Assembly late last month: "Grocery prices are down, mortgage rates are down, and inflation has been defeated." And at a high-profile speech in August, just before the Fed cut its key interest rate for the first time this year, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said: "Inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs. Upside risks to inflation have diminished." Yet dismissing or even downplaying inflation while it is still above the Fed's target of 2 per cent poses big risks for the White House and the Federal Reserve. For the Trump administration, it could find itself on the wrong side of a potent issue: Surveys show that many Americans still see high prices as a major burden on their finances. The Fed may be taking an even bigger gamble: It has cut its key interest rate on the assumption that the Trump administration's tariffs will only cause a temporary bump up in inflation. If that turns out to be wrong - if inflation gets worse or remains elevated for longer than expected - the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility could take a hit. That credibility plays a crucial role in the Fed's ability to keep prices stable. If Americans are confident that the central bank can keep inflation in check, they won't take steps - such as demanding sharply higher pay when prices rise - that can launch an inflationary spiral. Companies often increase prices further to offset higher labour costs. But Karen Dynan, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said this week that with memories of pandemic-era inflation still fresh and tariffs pushing up the cost of imported goods, consumers and businesses could start to lose confidence that inflation will stay low. "If that proves to be the case, in hindsight it will be that the Fed cuts -- and I do expect several more -- are going to be seen as a mistake," Dynan said. So far, the Trump administration's tariffs haven't lifted inflation as much as many economists expected earlier this year. And it remains far below its 9.1 per cent peak three years ago. Still, consumer prices increased 2.9 per cent in August from a year earlier, up from 2.6 per cent at the same time last year and above the Fed's 2 per cent target. The government is scheduled to release the September inflation report on Wednesday, but the data will probably be delayed by the government shutdown. Tariffs have pushed up the cost of many imported items, including furniture, appliances, and toys. Overall, the cost of long-lasting manufactured goods rose nearly 2 per cent in August from a year earlier. It was a modest gain, but it comes after nearly three decades during which the cost of such items mostly fell. The cost of some everyday goods is still rising more quickly than before the pandemic: Grocery prices moved up 2.7 per cent in August from a year ago, the largest gain, outside the pandemic, since 2015. Coffee prices have soared nearly 21 per cent in the past year, partly because Trump has slapped 50 per cent import taxes on Brazil, a leading coffee exporter, and also because climate change-induced droughts have cut into coffee bean harvests. Most Fed officials are still concerned that inflation is too high, according to the minutes of its Sept. 16-17 meeting. Yet they still chose to cut their key interest rate, because they were more worried about the risk of worsening unemployment than about higher inflation. But the concern for some economists is that the ongoing rollout of tariffs and the fact that many companies are still implementing price hikes in response could result in more than just a temporary boost to inflation. "It is a big gamble after what we've been going through ... to count on it being transitory," said Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard University and a former top adviser to President Barack Obama. "Once upon a time, (3 per cent inflation) would have been considered really high." Just two weeks ago, Trump slapped new tariffs on a range of products, including 100 per cent on pharmaceuticals, 50 per cent on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and 25 per cent on heavy trucks. On Friday, he threatened "a massive increase of tariffs" on imports from China in response to that country's restrictions on rare earth exports. Some companies are still raising prices to offset the tariff costs. Duties on steel and aluminium imports have pushed up the cost of the cans used by Campbell Soups, leading the company's CEO to say in September that it will implement "surgical pricing initiatives." Chris Butler, CEO of National Tree Company, the nation's largest artificial Christmas tree seller, says his company will raise prices by about 10 per cent this holiday season on its trees, wreaths, and garlands to offset tariff costs. About 45 per cent of its trees are made in China, with the rest from Southeast Asia, Mexico, and other countries. The cost of labour and real estate is too high to make them in the United States, he said. Butler also expects there will be a reduced supply of artificial trees and decorations this year, which could lift industry-wide prices further, because most production in China shut down when tariffs on that country hit 145 per cent earlier this year. Production resumed after Trump reduced the duties to 30 per cent but at a slower pace. Butler has pushed his suppliers to absorb some of the cost of the tariffs, but they won't pay all of it. "At the end of the day, we can't absorb the entirety of it and our factories can't absorb the entirety of it," he said. "So we've had to pass along some of the increases to consumers." Many Fed policymakers are aware of the risks. Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, who votes on interest rate decisions, said Monday that high inflation that results from a loss of confidence in the central bank is harder to fight than other price spikes, such as those that result from supply disruptions. "The Fed must maintain its credibility on inflation," Schmid said. "History has shown that while all inflations are universally disliked, not all inflations are equally costly to fight." Yet some Fed officials say that other trends are offsetting the impact of tariffs. Fed governor Stephen Miran, whom Trump appointed just before the central bank's September meeting, said Tuesday that a steady slowdown in rental costs should reduce underlying inflation in the coming months. And the sharp drop in immigration as a result of the administration's clampdown will reduce demand, he said, cooling inflation pressures. "I'm more sanguine about the inflation outlook than a lot of other people are," he said.

New Delhi: Realty firm Prestige Estates Projects Ltd has launched 620 flats for sale in Ghaziabad with an estimated revenue of Rs 2,200 crore, as part of its strategy to expand business amid strong demand for premium residential properties.In April this year, Bengaluru-based Prestige Estates entered the Delhi-NCR market with the launch of its 62.5-acre township project in Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh.In the first phase of its township, 'The Prestige City, Indirapuram', Prestige Estates had launched two housing projects -- Oakwood and Mulberry, comprising 3,421 units with a total sales value of around Rs 9,000 crore.The company has sold almost all units launched in the first phase, and has now launched the second phase, 'Mayflower', comprising 620 units.Praveer Shrivastava, Senior Executive VP, Residential, Prestige Group, said the total estimated gross development value (GDV) of this new phase is around Rs 2,200 crore.The township is spread across 62.5 acres in Indirapuram Extension on National Highway 24.With the successful launch of this project at Indirapuram, Prestige Estates has clocked a healthy growth in sales bookings during the first six months of this fiscal.Recently, the company reported a 50 per cent increase in its sales bookings to Rs 6,017.3 crore during the second quarter of this fiscal on better housing demand.In a regulatory filing, the company noted that the growth in sales bookings or pre-sales was driven by robust demand across markets and segments.Its sales volume for the September quarter stood at 4.42 million square feet, up 47 per cent year-on-year.The company sold 2,069 units during the July-September period.The average realisation for apartments rose 8 per cent year-on-year to Rs 14,906 per square feet, while plots saw a sharp 43 per cent increase to Rs 9,510 per square feet.For the first half of this fiscal, Prestige Estates achieved record sales of Rs 18,143.7 crore, up 157 per cent year-on-year.The company has surpassed the total sales bookings achieved in the 2024-25 fiscal.Its sales volumes aggregated 13.96 million square feet, representing 6,788 units sold, during the April-September period of this fiscal.Irfan Razack, Chairman and Managing Director, Prestige Group, had said the company has reported an outstanding first half, marked by record sales and strong collections."What makes this performance even more gratifying is the contribution from multiple geographies -- Bengaluru, NCR, and Mumbai have all delivered exceptionally well," he had said.As of June 2025, the group has delivered 307 projects, spanning 199 million sq ft and currently has a pipeline of 132 projects across 200 million sq ft.

The Indian market advanced on Friday, supported by gains in financial heavyweights amid renewed foreign portfolio investor (FPI) inflows over the past three sessions. Optimism ahead of the quarterly earnings season added to the upbeat sentiment, although Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) capped broader gains after reporting weaker-than-expected September-quarter results.The S&P BSE Sensex rose 328.72 points, or 0.40%, to close at 82,500.82, while the NSE Nifty 50 gained 103.55 points, or 0.41%, to settle at 25,285.35.Here's how analysts read the market pulse:Indian equities closed higher, led by strong gains in banking and pharmaceutical stocks, as investor sentiment improved following the government’s invitation to private sector professionals to lead the State Bank of India. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, noted that this marks a broader policy shift toward private participation in public sector enterprises, aimed at enhancing efficiency and governance."Pharma stocks rallied after the US revived the Biosecure Act, aimed at limiting biotech ties with flagged foreign firms, particularly from China, giving a strong boost to Indian CDMOs. With the earnings season underway, investors are closely watching quarterly results for cues on market direction," Nair added.Also read | 5 Wall Street moguls who dismissed Bitcoin as a fad — Guess what they’re saying now!US marketsWall Street slumped on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump escalated his trade confrontation with China, announcing plans late in the day to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports and new export controls on critical U.S.-made software. The move followed Beijing’s tightening of restrictions on rare earth exports, deepening fears of a renewed trade war and sending Big Tech shares tumbling after hours.Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, and Advanced Micro Devices each fell more than 2% in late trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 878.82 points, or 1.9%, to 45,479.60, while the S&P 500 sank 182.60 points, or 2.71%, to 6,552.51. The Nasdaq Composite slid 820.20 points, or 3.56%, to 22,204.43.European MarketsEuropean stocks were little changed on Friday but remained on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, as investors focused on French politics ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s expected announcement of a new prime minister.The pan-European STOXX 600 hovered near the flat line at 571.2 points by 0906 GMT, putting the benchmark on course for a modest 0.1% weekly rise.Tech ViewThe Nifty remained strong on Friday, breaking out of its recent consolidation range, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, adding that the trend continues to stay positive as it sustains above critical moving averages.“The setup looks favorable for further short-term gains. Any dip would provide a good opportunity to enter long trades. On the upside, the Nifty may move towards 25,500–25,550, while support is placed at 25,150. A fall below 25,150 could slightly weaken the trend,” said De.Also read | Warren Buffett’s biggest investment isn’t Apple, BofA or Coca-Cola — it’s a stock hidden in plain sightMost active stocks in terms of turnoverTata Communications (Rs 2,720 crore), TCS (Rs 2,674 crore), BSE (Rs 1,737 crore), Tata Investment (Rs 1,674 crore), Netweb Technologies (Rs 1,501 crore), HDFC Bank (Rs 1,352 crore), and YES Bank (Rs 1,312 crore) were among the most active stocks on BSE in value terms. Higher activity in value terms helps identify counters with the highest trading turnover of the day.Most active stocks in volume termsVodafone Idea (70.17 crore shares), YES Bank (55.12 crore shares), Reliance Power (11.98 crore shares), JP Power (6.61 crore shares), Suzlon Energy (5.89 crore shares), PNB (4.08 crore shares), and Sagility India (3.84 crore shares) were among the most actively traded stocks by volume on NSE.Stocks showing buying interestShares of Tata Communications, Reliance Power, Redington, YES Bank, PG Electroplast, Divis Labs, and Jyoti CNC Automation witnessed strong buying interest from market participants.Also read | Explained: What is China's anti-involution shift and how it impacts Indian stocks52-week highOver 171 stocks hit their 52-week highs today, while 105 stocks slipped to their 52-week lows. Stocks hitting their 52-week highs included SBI and Eternal.Stocks seeing selling pressureStocks that witnessed significant selling pressure included Tata Steel, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors, and Bharti Airtel.Sentiment meter bullishMarket sentiment was bullish. Out of the 4,343 stocks traded on BSE on Friday, 2,424 stocks advanced, 1,766 declined, and 153 remained unchanged.Also read | Ola Electric vs Ather Energy shares: Which EV bet looks stronger for your portfolio right now?(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Indian equities continued their winning streak, closing in the green for the second consecutive week, as investors found comfort in easing FPI selling pressure and renewed momentum in domestic markets.Despite lingering global uncertainties, the sentiment improved notably during the week, setting a constructive tone for the near term.The most encouraging sign came from the foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who had been net sellers for several months but turned net buyers in the cash market. The total FII net buying figure stood at Rs 3,289 crore over the last four trading sessions, suggesting that global investors may be regaining confidence in Indian equities.This moderation in outflows has provided much-needed stability to the broader market, particularly after a volatile start to October.In our previous weekly outlook, we had highlighted October 6, 7, and 9 as key dates likely to bring elevated volatility—and that prediction played out well. This kind of price action reinforces the importance of time-based analysis in identifying potential turning points in market momentum.Key Time Clusters for the Week (Oct 13 – 17, 2025)As we move into the coming week, traders should watch for the following intraday time clusters, which often coincide with short-term market reversals or momentum shifts:Monday, Oct 13: 9:20 am – 11:10 am · 12:35 pm · 2:40 pmTuesday, Oct 14: 10:35 am – 1:05 pm · 3:00 pmWednesday, Oct 15: 10:30 am – 12:10 pm · 1:30 pm · 1:55 pmThursday, Oct 16: 9:45 am – 10:35 am · 12:30 pm · 2:05 pmFriday, Oct 17: 11:10 am · 1:20 pmThese time clusters are derived from cyclical studies and have historically indicated potential zones of intraday reversals or directional accelerations.Nifty (Spot) Support & Resistance LevelsResistance: 25,322 · 25,434 · 25,566 · 25,710Support: 25,145 · 25,080 · 25,035 · 25,001 · 24,856 · 24,806 · 24,688Trading Outlook for the WeekThe upcoming week could witness heightened momentum, particularly around Friday, October 17, as key time cycles converge.Traders are advised to remain vigilant and flexible, adjusting positions dynamically in response to the unfolding price action. As intraday volatility may expand toward the weekend, managing risk through stop losses and position sizing will be crucial.Overall, the technical structure of the market remains positive, with dips likely to attract buying interest.Sustained FII inflows and strong domestic participation could help Nifty move toward higher resistance levels in the coming sessions.(Analyst Disclaimer: Harshubh Mahesh Shah is Director at Wealthview Analytics Pvt Ltd. SEBI Registration – INH000009676)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)