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Mumbai: The three-day rebound in markets after the sell-off since early March has been marked by scepticism and unease, making it an unloved rally. As equities trudge higher, partly driven by short covering and domestic institutional buying, a decisive shift will hinge on some respite on the war front and the market finding its footing, something which experts say has not yet happened. Both indices had dropped roughly 8.3% from the start of March till Friday, spooked by the spike in oil prices sparked by the conflict in West Asia. The pace of the fall had resulted in markets turning oversold, typically followed by a rebound - a phenomenon that analysts describe as 'dead cat bounce'.129668298 The Sensex and Nifty have recovered up to 2.9% in the past three trading sessions till Wednesday, bouncing off their lowest levels since April 2025, but the tentative bounce in this period underscores doubts about the durability of the rally. The main stock indices gave up a portion of their early gains on these trading sessions. For instance, on Wednesday, Nifty closed 0.8% higher after gaining as much as 1.2% earlier in the day. Similarly, the index rose 1.1% and 1.5% on Tuesday and Monday but ended the day 0.7% and 1.1% higher, respectively. "The word on the Street is caution given the significant drawdowns recently, and while they are hoping for a resolution soon, investors are wary and lack optimism due to uncertain outcomes," said Lakshmi Iyer, Group president and CEO, Bajaj Alternates. "The durability of gains can be assessed only when there is clarity on the endgame on the war front," she said. One reason for this is the unrelenting foreign institutional selling amid the rebound. Overseas fund managers pulled out ₹16,400 crore in the previous three trading sessions, taking their sales tally for March so far to nearly ₹75,000 crore - the highest selling in a month since January 2025. In index futures, the cuts in foreigners' bearish bets, as reflected in their long-short ratio, have also been moderate, analysts said. "The FII long short ratio rose from 10% on Friday to 14% on Wednesday, which indicates only a marginal reduction in short positions by global investors," said Nilesh Jain, VP and head of Technical and Derivative Research, Centrum Finverse. Dwindling trader confidence also stems from uncertainty over whether the Nifty has formed a bottom, fuelling confusion. "Until it crosses 24,300 levels, this indecision could persist." While many investors are of the view that the conflict may not stretch on for long, they appear unwilling to deploy cash aggressively into equities now. "The rebound does not enthuse foreign investors while domestic investors are stuck after buying at higher levels," said Siddarth Bhamre, head of Research, Asit C Mehta Intermediates. "Retail investors, however, are not participating much in the buying and are waiting to see how the war shapes up." "The geopolitical risk from a closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a sword hanging over us," he said. "There are no reasons to be bullish currently and unless there is a resolution of the conflict, further declines are likely."

Spot gold continued to trade lower after the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on Wednesday, having hit a more than one-month low due to a stronger dollar and expectations for interest rates to remain higher for longer amid ‌the ongoing ⁠Middle East ⁠conflict. Spot gold fell 2.9% to $4,860.21 per ounce by 2:58 p.m. ET (1858 GMT), after hitting its lowest level since February 6 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 2.2% lower at $4,896.20. The U.S. dollar strengthened, making gold less affordable for holders of other currencies. The Fed held rates steady, as was widely expected, citing somewhat elevated inflation and giving little indication when it might next cut short-term borrowing costs. ⁠Fed officials' economic ‌projections indicated they expect to cut rates once again this year. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the latest round of Fed forecasts are ⁠a bit of a shot in the dark given uncertainty created by the Iran war. "Powell signalled strongly that the Fed is on the sidelines and his gentle dovish hints were not nearly enough to cheer assets or gold, which has been trading like a risky asset. If the market was hoping for a Fed ready to "help" - they didn't get it," said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. "Gold's slump under $5,000/oz could be technically troubling, but still ‌won't impact long-term bullishness." Gold is a traditional safe haven in times of uncertainty but tends to underperform when rates are high, as it yields no interest. Meanwhile, a Labor Department report ⁠showed U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in February, and could accelerate further due to the war. Nearly three weeks into the Iran conflict, there is little sign of de-escalation, keeping benchmark Brent futures above $100 a barrel. Iran's huge Pars gas field was hit on Wednesday, a major escalation, prompting Tehran to announce it would respond with attacks on oil and gas targets throughout the Gulf. In other metals, spot silver fell 4.2% to $75.99, platinum was down 3.9% at $2,041.30, and palladium lost 6.1% to $1,503.97.

Mumbai: Atanu Chakraborty, chairman of HDFC Bank, has resigned from the board with immediate effect, citing certain practices at the country's most-valued lender that he said were not in line with his "personal values and ethics," the bank said in a filing late on Wednesday."Certain happenings and practices within the bank, that I have observed over the last two years, are not in congruence with my personal values and ethics. This is the basis of my aforementioned decision," Chakraborty said in his resignation letter. "I confirm that there are no other material reasons for my resignation other than those stated above," he added.The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has approved the appointment of former HDFC vice chairman Keki Mistry as interim part-time chairman for three months, the bank said.Chakraborty, a former bureaucrat who earlier served in the Department of Financial Services, joined HDFC Bank's board in May 2021. During his tenure, he oversaw key developments, including the merger of HDFC Bank with mortgage lender HDFC, creating India's second-largest bank by assets.The sudden resignation of the chairman will raise concerns among investors. HDFC Bank is designated by the banking regulator as one of India's three systemically important banks, alongside ICICI Bank and State Bank of India. It is the country's second-most valued company after Reliance Industries, with a market capitalisation of ₹12.9 lakh crore and deposits of ₹28.5 lakh crore."There were murmurs that the chairman and senior management were not in sync on many issues, but these were not openly discussed," said a former HDFC Bank employee aware of internal developments.In his letter, Chakraborty thanked the board and senior management for their support and acknowledged the contribution of independent and non-executive directors who took on significant responsibilities on the board and its committees.He said it had been a privilege to contribute to the bank's growth and governance, noting the strong energy and drive he observed among mid- and junior-level employees, which he said should anchor a re-imagined organisation.

If there is one learning from the ongoing Iran War, it is this: Now is the perfect time to revisit our energy transition strategy and increase the share of electrons in our economy. They are already a key power source for electricity for Indian households, but we need to cannonball efforts to make it a source for industrialisation -- to manufacture molecules, materials as well as machine learning.Till recently, “electro-states” or countries that are weaning away from their legacy fossil fuel addiction to create an economy that underpins electrification was an abstract concept rooted to a Utopian zero carbon future. But Iran’s strategy of hitting critical oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf has exposed how inexpensive weaponry like drones can wreak havoc on global energy markets. The ongoing war in the Middle East should be a good window to power our imagination.You may follow our live coverage of the West Asia war hereA core metric of an electro-state is how much of total final energy demand is met through electricity. Across solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, batteries, and high-speed bullet and metro rail, China has built the world's largest and most comprehensive clean-energy supply chain and now leads not only in production capacity of clean energy resources, but also in the speed and scale of utilization. The shift has more to do with strategic intent and flexing geopolitical muscle and less with morality.World economies have traditionally needed fossil fuels to function. Petrostates like the Gulf kingdoms, Russia and even the United States have always leveraged their control over supplies of crude, coal, gas and other extractive resources in diplomacy, influence global energy prices and dictate global order. Fast growing countries like China and India imported these fuels to build their industrial backbone and move their economy but at the cost of the environment and exchequer.Of late, nations with abundant sun and wind are trying to flip the equation in a low-carbon world. A combination of industrial policy, subsidies, long-term investments has made Beijing an indispensable player in the global energy transition value chain. Since 2019, China’s solar panel export volumes have trebled. That should be our cue too.Even then, it’s impossible to make a full transition overnight. China will still need 600 GWh to meet electricity growth to meet the 2026 projections of China Electricity Council, a trade association, in spite of their breakneck build outs. India -- the second largest net oil importer after China -- will be no different. Fossil fuels like crude and natural gas (LNG/LPG) are essential to move our economy, run our industries and households. Much like China, coal fired thermal power has made a comeback in recent quarters and has absorbed much of the short-term war-induced pain of the domestic power grids. But renewables coupled with battery storage are slowly taking over electricity supply. It is in fact already playing out. Our data centres are fed by discom power which is turn draws 30-40% of clean power under mandatory purchase obligations. From transportation to smart buildings, everything that can economically electrify is going electric, pushing up the share of electrons in GDP to 18 to 20% per cent, said Mahesh Kolli, Co-Founder of Greenko Group, a clean energy company, in Davos this year.Half of our crude’s oil demand comes from the transport sector. With Indian railways leading the charge for electrification, it is changing at a fast clip. Now automobiles too are fast changing gears. 60% of our three-wheeler sales are now electric, the highest in the world while 1.27 million electric 2-wheelers were sold last year alone, a 40% Y-O-Y jump. Even electric cars have exceeded 5% of sales at 60% lower oil demand per person than China and are undercutting internal combustion engines on price.A mad scramble for renewable options won’t stop our reliance on imports with know-how replacing crude oil to make us a technology colony of China -- which controls the lion's share of the solar manufacturing and battery supply chains – instead. But in the long run, cheaper electricity is the only way to catalyse homegrown manufacturing, a multi-decade lost opportunity for us. Consistent high cost of electricity – double of peers -- have forever hamstrung our efforts.Also read: US intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard says Iran not restoring nuclear enrichment, challenging Trump’s justification for warIndia generates a third more economic output per unit of energy than China today according to Ember, a British energy consulting firm. It's primarily a function of the nature of our industrial growth. Unlike China’s construction-driven, manufacturing led development path, India’s economy has always been services-led. Our cement and steel demand is a fraction of China’s. But newer or even mature technologies like elctrolysers can accelerate change. Unlike the Middle East, which still predominantly uses gas as feedstock, we are already seeing local players branching out to make green fertiliser and aluminium – two large user groups of natural gas – from alternate sources like hydrogen. Still, fragmented decision making, ennui of incumbent industries have tripped the mega ambitions of the National Hydrogen Mission to scale up 5 MMT of annual production. Implementation and focus, especially when crude prices are volatile, will be key to make guzzlers of imported energy like petrochemicals also bite the bullet.If one believes a robust electronics eco-system is the pathway for an electric future, then the near six-fold surge of our emerging national champions should also be a strong pointer. As would domestic mobile phone production that has leapfrogged from 2 million units in 2014 to 300 million a decade later. Such capabilities are also rubbing off on adjacent spaces including solar panel manufacturing batteries, and EVs. The shift into upstream components is similarly pronounced: solar cell manufacturing, virtually absent a decade ago, has expanded to 18 GW. Hello Solarpunk.The tiny specks inside the atom have already powered the third – digital -- revolution, and they may hold the key to the fourth that’s already upon us.