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US President Donald Trump's move to introduce a $100,000 fee for new H-1B visa applications is large enough to make sending Indian software engineers to the US economically unviable for Indian tech companies. While the top five Indian IT firms derive roughly 55% of their revenue from the US, Infosys is estimated to have the highest share of employees on H-1B visas.According to estimates by Jefferies, Infosys had 3.3% of its employees under an H-1B visa in 2024, higher than TCS' 2.2%. Hexaware is the second largest share at 3%, followed by LTI Mindtree at 2.5%. Others like HCL Tech, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra vary between 2-2.3%.Infosys also tops the list of companies with the highest revenue share from H-1B visa employees in 2024 at 11.5%. Hexaware was second at 10.4%, followed by LTIMindtree at 8.8%, Coforge 8.5%, HCL Tech 8%, TCS 7.7% and Wipro 7.5%."The US government's move to introduce a $100K fee for new H1B applications will entirely offset EBIT per H1B employee, driving a shift away from H1B usage toward local hiring, subcontracting, and near/offshoring," warned Jefferies analyst Akshat Agarwal. "The talent supply crunch will drive up onsite wages, which could drag profits by 4-13%."Also Read | $100,000 H-1B visa fee shock: How it could hit Indian IT giants & reconfigure tech outsourcingThe fee's impact becomes stark when viewed against IT firms' economics. Indian software companies typically bill onsite employees at $150,000-$200,000 annually while earning roughly 10% margins, translating to just $15,000-$20,000 in annual EBIT per H-1B worker.With Trump's $100,000 fee effectively wiping out five to six years of profits from a single visa holder, the math no longer works. Given H-1B visas are capped at six years maximum, "IT firms are likely to shift away from H1B visas," Jefferies concluded.Nuvama estimates put the scale of exposure in human terms: Infosys may have 12,000-15,000 employees on H-1B visas, compared to TCS's 10,000-12,000.Among mid-tier players, Hexaware faces the second-highest revenue exposure at 10.4%, followed by LTIMindtree at 8.8% and Coforge at 8.5%. TCS, despite its larger workforce, has a lower revenue dependency at 7.7%.The fee structure forces a fundamental rethink of operating models that have powered India's IT boom for decades. Companies face four alternatives: hire locals, use subcontractors, near-shore work to Mexico or Canada, or offshore to India."If an IT company were to apply for 5,000 H-1Bs in FY27, the annual fee alone would amount to $500 million," calculated Motilal Oswal. "Given the magnitude of this fee, it is likely that Indian IT companies will avoid new H-1B filings altogether."Since H-1B visa lotteries typically run in Q4-Q1, the first impact would hit FY27 petitions.Not all analysts view the development as catastrophic. Nomura's Abhishek Bhandari struck a measured tone: "We believe the impact of the changes in H-1B visa program is going to be negligible over the next one year." He noted that localization efforts since Trump's first term have already reduced H-1B dependency, with most companies now having over 60% local hiring versus 25-30% in 2016.JM Financial went further, calling the development "net positive" despite potential margin hits of 15-50 basis points. "With one of the biggest regulatory overhangs now behind, this event is net positive, in our view," the firm stated.Nuvama echoed this optimism, noting that "Indian IT firms have significantly reduced their reliance on H-1B visas over the last eight years, with less than half of the US workforce dependent on H-1B visas."Moody's Ratings said steady global demand for IT services will help offset some of the rising costs. "Large IT firms like Tata Consultancy Services (Baa1 stable) and Infosys Limited (Baa1 stable) are better equipped to manage these pressures because of their higher profitability, strong balance sheets and increased focus on local hiring over the last few years," said Sweta Patodia, AVP, Moody's Ratings.The top five Indian IT firms derive roughly 55% of their revenue from the US market, making Trump's visa policies a make-or-break issue for the sector. Currently, only about 20% of employees work onsite, of which 20-30% hold H-1B visas—meaning visa holders represent just 3-5% of the typical vendor's workforce.But their revenue contribution far exceeds their numbers. Jefferies estimates that H-1B employees deliver 7-12% of total revenues across the sector.As the industry braces for FY27, when the first wave of $100,000 fees hits, the question is how quickly India's IT titans can adapt their decades-old playbook to survive Trump's new reality.

Shares of Adani Green Energy rallied as much as 8% to their day’s high of Rs 1,115 on the NSE on Monday, September 22, buoyed by renewed investor optimism after the market regulator SEBI gave a clean chit to Gautam Adani, his brother Rajesh Adani, and some Adani Group companies in the allegations made by US short-seller Hindenburg Research last week. The regulator said there was no proof of wrongdoing in the case related to the allegations made by the US short-seller in January 2023.With today’s surge, the stock is up 13% in 2 sessions. The bullish momentum also comes after international brokerage Jefferies upped the target price to Rs 1,300. Analysts forecast an upside potential of nearly 27% from current market levels.Also read: Adani Power shares crash 80% in just one day! Is that true?Jefferies believes that stock is trading at a 63% discount to its January 2023 peak on a one-year forward EV/EBITDA basis, leaving room for upside if execution stays on track. Jefferies projects additions of 4.5 GW in FY26 and 6.3 GW in FY27, with management reiterating its 5 GW guidance for FY26. Utilisation levels are expected to improve to above 30% from 24.8% in FY25.A promoter infusion of Rs 9,350 crore through warrants has supported the balance sheet, analysts say. Net debt to equity is projected to ease from 6.9x currently to 5.4x by FY30, while net debt to EBITDA should improve to 6.9x from 8.3x. Over 80% of installed capacity is tied up under 25-year power purchase agreements or PPAs, providing strong cash flow visibility.Since January 2023, capacity has risen 120% to 16.1 GW even as market capitalisation is 46% lower. EBITDA grew at a 36% CAGR in FY22-25 and is expected to rise 30% annually over FY25-28.Read more: Cheers to premiumisation! These 4 alcohol stocks can rally up to 18%. Do you own any?With a price target of Rs 1,300, Jefferies is valuing the stock at 20x EV/EBITDA on September 2027 estimates, a premium to JSW Energy at 15x given Adani Green’s growth profile and pure renewable focus.The risks flagged by the international brokerage include execution delays at Khavda and any adverse outcome from the ongoing US investigation.Q1 Performance SnapshotAdani Green Energy reported a 60% year-on-year (YoY) growth in its Q1 consolidated net profit at Rs 713 crore, compared to Rs 446 crore in the same period last year. Power supply-driven revenue jumped 31% YoY to Rs 3,312 crore in Q1FY26, up from Rs 2,528 crore in the year-ago period.At about 11:20 am, shares of the company were trading at Rs 1,103, higher by 7% from the last close on the NSE. Adani Green Energy shares have fallen nearly 50% in the last 1 year.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Shares of Adani Enterprises surged as much as 3.4% on Monday to Rs 2,610 on the BSE, taking gains over the past two sessions to 8.7%. The rally comes in the wake of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) clearing the Adani Group of stock manipulation allegations, reinforcing investor confidence in the conglomerate.Sebi, in two detailed orders on Thursday, dismissed claims by U.S.-based short-seller Hindenburg Research that Adani entities had routed funds through related parties to manipulate stock prices.The regulator also found no violations involving substantial acquisition of securities or control that could mislead investors, concluding that there was no basis for liability or penalties. Gautam Adani welcomed the ruling, calling for an apology from those who spread what he described as Hindenburg Research’s “fraudulent and motivated” claims.Jefferies bullish on growth outlookBrokerage Jefferies maintained a Buy rating on Adani Enterprises with a target price of Rs 3,000, implying a potential 15% upside. The brokerage highlighted multiple growth drivers, including the imminent commissioning of Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIAL) in October 2025. According to management, the airport’s inaugural phase will have a capacity of 20 million passengers and 0.8 million tonnes of cargo annually, with expectations to scale to 17 million passengers by FY27.Jefferies also highlighted rising yields across the company’s airport portfolio, with recent tariff revisions suggesting aero yield per passenger growth of 1.5-2.5x. The brokerage noted the group’s non-aeronautical developments, including city-side projects with offices, retail, hotels, and entertainment hubs, which are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue.Green energy expansion adds further momentumThe company's unit, Adani New Industries Limited (ANIL) is scaling up solar and wind capacities, with 4GW of solar modules and 2.25GW of windtech already operational, the brokerage noted. The company posted an EBITDA of Rs 48 billion in FY25, more than double the previous year, driven by strong domestic and U.S. pricing. Solar cell/module capacity is set to expand to 10GW by FY27, while green hydrogen projects will be pursued based on viability.A turnaround after turbulent monthsThe regulatory clearance comes nearly three years after Hindenburg’s January 2023 report, which triggered a severe sell-off across listed Adani companies, eroding more than $150 billion in market value at its lowest point. Since then, shares have rebounded steadily, with Monday’s gains reflecting renewed investor confidence in both governance and growth prospects.Despite the recent rally, Adani Enterprises remains down 13% over the last one year and is up 2% so far in 2025.From a technical standpoint, the stock is trading below eight of its eight key simple moving averages (SMA)—5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 50-day, 100-day, 150-day, and 200-day, indicating bullish undertones across short-term to long-term charts.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 71.4, suggesting the stock may be overbought and could see a pullback. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at 18.7 and remains above both the center and signal lines, reinforcing the ongoing bullish trend.Also read | Ola Electric vs Ather Energy shares: Which EV bet looks stronger for your portfolio right now?(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)