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The Federal Reserve may be about to stimulate an economy growing at more than 3%, where stocks are at record highs and inflation remains above target. The problem is that no one knows for sure how far the U.S. central bank can go before it trips that wire. Putting aside the intense political pressure, the fundamental arguments for Chair Jerome Powell to resume Fed rate cuts this week rest on the softening U.S. jobs market and ongoing problems with housing affordability, as well as concerns that the economy could head south by this time next year. The extent of the jobs trouble is debatable, however, due to a halt to immigration and the 'weakness' may have as much to do with labor supply as demand. The housing market also remains slightly distorted because the extraordinary drop in mortgage rates during the COVID-19 pandemic is making homeowners loath to sell. On the flipside, U.S. retail sales are still booming at an annual rate of 5%, the stock market has roared to record highs, broad financial conditions are the loosest in three years and inflation continues to run hot above target - whatever one assumes the enduring impact of trade tariffs. Given this mixed bag, the Fed's best course of action may be to shift to neutral - a rate that neither spurs nor inhibits the economy. But, as ever, determining precisely where that holy grail may be is a complex and wonky task. By some measures, a quarter-point cut this week would already push the Fed close to or even below neutral territory. A 50-basis-points (bps) move today, or the second 25-bps move in October that is currently 80% priced into markets, could already move the Fed into stimulative mode, raising questions about whether White House demands are already trumping traditional Fed assessments. If only it were that simple. SPECIAL GUEST STAR A long-standing Fed model for determining the notoriously elusive neutral real rate - the Laubach-Williams gauge jointly developed by New York Fed boss John Williams - estimates this figure, dubbed 'R-star', is currently 1.37%. If the midpoint of the Fed target range were to fall 25 bps to 4.125% later today, then the prevailing real funds rate based on the most recent core PCE annual inflation rate from July would fall to 1.225% - so mildly prodding but not super stimulative. However, if consensus forecasts for core PCE in August play out at 2.7%, then the resulting real funds rate would remain a drag at 1.425%, reinforcing calls for more cuts. But doves point to a revised R-star model from 2023 that is adjusted for pandemic-related supply distortions. It puts the neutral rate as low as 0.85%. Indeed, Williams himself recently suggested 'growth-adjusted' R-star may still be stuck around pre-COVID levels as low as 0.5%. Assuming the revised Holston-Laubach-Williams estimate is the more correct reading, then policy would still be restrictive by at least 50 bps following a quarter cut today - and two more similar cuts by year-end would only then bring it back to neutral. What's more, if something close to the Fed policymakers' median core PCE forecast of 2.2% for next year pans out, then a further 50 bps of easing would be warranted in 2026 just to remain neutral. In total then, some 125 bps of cuts through the end of next year would likely do the trick. Markets are priced for 150 bps, suggesting they assume the Fed will move into a stimulative mode by then. So two models, and two very different narratives. FED PLOTLINES So much for the models. Watching what Fed policymakers themselves think may be more important - not least with changing personnel on the central bank's board. With the caveat that the Fed's 'dot plot' predictions will be updated later today, the standing view from June's forecasts shows that Fed officials anticipated two cuts this year. Their equivalent 'neutral' long-term policy rate is 3%, translating into a 1% 'R-star' estimate. Much of the focus on Wednesday will be on whether the median projection goes to three cuts from two this year - as markets are not yet fully priced for that shift. But as it stands, a 1% long-term real neutral policy rate assessment is higher than the HLW model and that part of dot plot may well have an impact on market thinking today too. With politics weighing heavily over the central bank, all this 'science' may end up being beside the point. President Donald Trump's eye-popping demand for 1% policy rates suggests he has little time for models. Either that or he really meant to say 1% real rates, which would instead mean he thinks rates should really move quickly to 3.7%. If that were true, then perhaps he's not so far off from market pricing or the Fed's direction of travel - but that's a very big "if".The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters

Robert Kiyosaki, author of the personal finance bestseller Rich Dad Poor Dad, said on Wednesday that a recent executive order signed by U.S. President Donald Trump “democratising access to alternative investments for 401k investors” will make his favoured assets, gold, silver and Bitcoin, more valuable.“BIG NEWS: According to friend Andy Schectman….on August 7, 2025….President Trump signed an Executive Order ‘Democratizing Access to Alternative Investments for 401k Investors,” Kiyosaki posted on X, formerly Twitter.<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BIG NEWS: According to friend Andy Schectman….on August 7, 2025….President Trump signed an Executive Order “Democratizing Access to Alternative Investments for 401k Investors.”<br/><br/>As some of you know I do not invest in mutual funds or ETFS. To me Mutual funds and ETFS are for…</p>&mdash; Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) <a href="https://twitter.com/theRealKiyosaki/status/1968162643585224946?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 17, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Alternative assets under 401(k) umbrellaKiyosaki, who has long criticised traditional investment vehicles, wrote: “As some of you know, I do not invest in mutual funds or ETFS. To me, Mutual funds and ETFS are for ‘losers.’”The order, he said, “opens the door for ‘smarter’ more ‘sophisticated investors’ to add alternative investments such as real estate, private equity and debt, crypto, and precious metals, under a 401 k tax umbrella.”While Kiyosaki welcomed the change, he cautioned that “Trump’s new XO means investors be smarter and wiser. If you are not willing to ‘study’ and do your ‘homework’ it is best mom and pop investors stick with ‘vanilla’ mutual funds and ETFS.”Gold, silver, BitcoinThe financial educator, a long-time advocate of hard assets and digital currencies, said he was “happy because Trump's new XO treats investors like ‘adults’ and makes my gold, silver, and Bitcoin more valuable.” He credited his friend Andy Schectman for the “heads up.”Kiyosaki’s latest remarks follow his August comments that he would double his Bitcoin holdings if the so-called “Bitcoin August Curse” pushed the cryptocurrency below $90,000. At the time, he argued that market weakness stemmed not from Bitcoin but from “our multi trillion dollar debt and incompetent PhDs running ‘the SWAMP’, the Fed and our Treasury.”Trump’s executive order marks a significant policy change for retirement savings in the U.S., potentially expanding access to asset classes that were previously restricted to institutions and accredited investors.Also read | With gold prices at record highs, are gold loan lenders a better bet for your portfolio than jewellery makers?On Wednesday, gold traded at $3,690.32 per ounce after breaching $3,700 for the first time on Tuesday. Cryptocurrency Bitcoin gained nearly 1% in the past one day to trade at $116,364. Elsewhere, spot silver slipped 1.3% to $41.98 per ounce.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

Gold prices opened slightly lower on Wednesday but remained close to record highs, supported by strong market sentiment ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s key interest rate decision later in the day. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), October gold futures were trading at Rs 1,09,870 per 10 grams, down Rs 286 or 0.26%, after touching an all-time high of Rs 1,10,666.Despite the modest decline, the yellow metal remains well-supported as investors look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell for signals on the future direction of rate cuts.Meanwhile, silver December futures saw a sharper fall, with prices on MCX dropping Rs 1,330 or 1.03% to Rs 1,27,490 per kilogram.Globally, the dollar weakened, stock indices edged lower, and gold reached new highs as markets awaited the Fed’s expected rate cut and clues on the pace of future easing.The Fed is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.00%-4.25% range at the end of its monetary policy meeting later in the global day. The main focus beyond the rate decision will be on Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.On Tuesday, gold and silver settled on a slightly weaker note in the domestic market and on a mixed note in the international markets. Gold October futures contract settled at Rs 1,10,156 per 10 grams with a loss of 0.02% and silver December futures contract settled at Rs 1,28,820 per kilogram with a loss of 0.47%.Gold and silver show very high price volatility and extended their gains in the early trading session, but were unable to hold their gains amid progress in the US-India trade talks and ahead of the FOMC meeting outcomes.Gold prices hit a record high amid possible Fed rate cuts and silver prices fell from their fresh 14-year high amid profit taking from higher levels“The dollar index and the U.S. 10-year bond yields slipped amid strength in the Euro and possible Fed rate cuts and supporting gold and silver prices. However, strength in the rupee limits gains of gold and silver in the domestic markets,” said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.Today, the US Dollar Index, DXY, was hovering near the 96.72 mark, gaining 0.09 or 0.09%.“We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the dollar index, US-India trade deal updates, and FOMC meeting outcomes, and gold are expected to trade in the range of $3,534-3,800 per troy ounce and silver is expected to trade in the range of $41.40-44.50 per troy ounce this week,” he added.How to trade gold?Manoj Kumar Jain suggested the following ranges for gold and silver on MCX:Gold has support at Rs 1,09,720-1,09,300 and resistance at Rs 1,10,666-1,11,000Silver has support at Rs 1,27,700-1,26,650 and resistance at Rs 1,30,000-1,31,200Jain suggests avoiding fresh positions in gold and silver ahead of the FOMC meeting outcomes and traders can also book profit once in the existing long positions.“For long-term investors, there is no need to worry as long-term bullish trend is intact for both precious metals,” he added.Gold rates in physical marketsGold Price today in DelhiStandard gold (22 carat) prices in Delhi stand at Rs 57,312/8 grams, while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 61,088/8 grams.Gold Price today in MumbaiStandard gold (22 carat) prices in Mumbai stand at Rs 57,744/8 grams, while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 61,536/8 grams.Gold Price today in ChennaiStandard gold (22 carat) prices in Chennai stand at Rs 57,008/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,496/8 grams.Gold Price today in HyderabadStandard gold (22 carat) prices in Hyderabad stand at Rs 57,032/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,752/8 grams.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Brokerages remain optimistic on select mid-to-large cap names, highlighting strong structural drivers and attractive valuations.Nuvama has initiated coverage on Eureka Forbes, Religare Broking has turned positive on REC Ltd, while Motilal Oswal reiterated its bullish stance on Biocon.The common thread across these calls is robust earnings visibility, leadership in core segments, and growth tailwinds from sectoral trends such as infrastructure capex, healthcare innovation, and rising consumer demand.We have collated a list of recommendations from top brokerage firms from ETNow and other sources:Nuvama on Eureka Forbes: Initiating Coverage | Buy | Target Rs 700 | LTP Rs 579 | Upside 20%Nuvama has initiated coverage on Eureka Forbes with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 700, implying a 20% upside from the current market price of Rs 579.The company is the largest player in the electric water purifier (EWP) segment, commanding a dominant 40–45% share of the Rs 4,900 crore organized market.Notably, it remains the only large full-stack EWP company in an underpenetrated market with just 6% penetration.Eureka Forbes is strengthening its brand proposition of "purity of trust" through multiple levers, including innovative SKUs, a revitalized advertising and promotion strategy, an omni-channel distribution reach, and a revamped after-sales service network, which already contributes about 33% of its revenue.Nuvama projects a 14% revenue CAGR between FY25–28E, supported by a robust EBITDA and PAT CAGR of 24% and 31%, respectively.The brokerage also expects an additional 300 bps operating leverage over FY25–28E, building on the 530 bps gain achieved in FY23–25, driven largely by cost optimization initiatives.However, key risks to this bullish outlook include delays or weaker-than-expected results from the after-sales service revamp, as well as heightened competitive intensity in the sector.Motilal Oswal on Biocon: Buy | Target Rs 410 | LTP Rs 360 | Upside 13%Motilal Oswal has initiated coverage on Biocon with a Buy rating, setting a target price of Rs 410, which implies a 13% upside from the current market price of Rs 360.The company is proactively expanding its peptide API capacity in anticipation of Semaglutide’s patent expiry in India in March 2026, aiming to capture the projected 50–60 ton demand surge.By focusing on in-house manufacturing, Biocon looks to de-risk supply and establish itself as a leading player in the GLP-1 API segment.With its significantly lower manufacturing costs compared to innovators, Biocon is strategically pursuing both CDMO and front-end models for Semaglutide formulations.The demand is expected to be dominated by injectable forms—particularly for weight loss and diabetes management—over oral versions in emerging markets post-patent expiry.Beyond Semaglutide, the company’s pipeline across Generics and Biologics remains promising, supported by ongoing investments in manufacturing capacity to enable commercial scale-up.Additionally, Syngene, Biocon’s subsidiary, is expanding its CDMO capabilities to cater to rising global demand. Motilal Oswal projects Biocon to deliver a sales CAGR of 18% in Biologics, 16% in Generics, and 10% in Syngene over FY25–27.Religare Broking on REC Ltd: Buy | Target Rs 466 | LTP Rs 380 | Upside 22%Religare Broking has initiated coverage on REC Ltd with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 466, implying a 22% upside from the current market price of Rs 380.The company is well-positioned to ride India’s ongoing power and infrastructure capex cycle, with its loan book expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% over FY25–27E.This growth will be driven by strong demand from state utilities, increasing investments in renewable energy, and a gradual diversification into non-power infrastructure projects.Earnings visibility for REC remains strong, backed by operating leverage, scale benefits, and an improving asset mix that is largely anchored in state-backed and renewable loans.The company also continues to deliver sector-leading return ratios, with RoE expected to sustain near 20%. Additionally, its consistent dividend payout policy translates into an attractive 4–5% yield for investors.Based on these factors, Religare values REC at Rs 466 per share, or 1.2x FY27E BV, and recommends a Buy.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times).

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 75th birthday on Wednesday was marked by a flood of greetings from Union ministers, chief ministers, global leaders, and citizens across the country. From prayers at gurudwaras to rangolis in schools and Ganga Aarti, the day turned into a nationwide celebration.Union Home Minister Amit Shah called Modi’s leadership the very definition of transformation. “The longest bridge in Assam, the world’s highest Chenab Railway Bridge in Kashmir, semiconductor units, digital public infrastructure—these are symbols of India becoming number one in every field under the Modi government. Today, when even vegetable vendors proudly display UPI, the meaning of being Narendra Modi becomes clear.”&mdash; AmitShah (@AmitShah) Defence Minister Rajnath Singh described the prime minister as a leader of “visionary leadership, dedication to the nation, and tireless hard work” who had “infused India with new energy and a new direction.” External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said the BJP leader's “firm resolve to build an Atmanirbhar, Sammridh and Viksit Bharat serves as an inspiration,” while Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal wished him on behalf of “140 crore countrymen.”&mdash; PiyushGoyal (@PiyushGoyal) Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri revealed that prayers were offered in five major gurudwaras — Patna Sahib, Bangla Sahib, Singh Sabha, Kirtangadh Sahib, and Shri Guru Singh Sabha — for Modi’s long life and health. “Today, we are a $4.4 trillion economy, ranked fourth globally,” he said, adding, “With the current GDP growth, we will soon become the third-largest economy.” President Droupadi Murmu, in her message, praised the prime minister for “instilling a culture of achieving great goals” and prayed for his “health and joy.”Chief ministers extend wishes State leaders across the country joined in with tributes. Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath called Modi “the torchbearer of the hopes and aspirations of 1.4 billion Indians, who has positioned ‘New India’ in the front row on the global stage, the world’s most popular politician, and the one who has realized the vision of ‘One India – Excellent India.’” Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma described Modi as “the world’s most popular Prime Minister, the true son of Mother India, the flag-bearer of Indian culture. Under your able leadership, not only has the pace of India’s development accelerated and the deprived received their due rights, but the nation’s pride has also reached new heights across the entire world.”&mdash; himantabiswa (@himantabiswa) Andhra Pradesh CM N. Chandrababu Naidu wrote, “We are truly fortunate to have the right leader at the right time, guiding our nation with clarity and determination. His absolute commitment to the people and our nation’s prosperity, reflected in Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas and the bold reforms he has championed, has touched countless lives and brought meaningful change across the country.” Delhi CM Rekha Gupta extended greetings to “the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, who rules the hearts of so many Indians. I, along with the people of Delhi, wish you a very happy birthday.”Celebrations across the country Beyond the corridors of power, citizens marked the day with local gestures. In Gujarat, schoolchildren in Rajkot crafted 75 colourful rangolis to honour the Prime Minister. In Rajasthan, BJP workers led by state party president Madan Rathore held a cleanliness drive at Jaipur’s Hawa Mahal. Devotees at Delhi’s Hanuman temple and Gurudwara Bangla Sahib offered prayers for Modi’s health and longevity.&mdash; ANI (@ANI) Pilgrims at Vaishno Devi temple in Jammu also joined in with birthday wishes, while Delhi ministers Kapil Mishra and Manjinder Singh Sirsa personally offered prayers. Meanwhile, Ganga Aarti was also performed by supporters in Varanasi.&mdash; ANI (@ANI) From festive rangolis to public prayers, the celebrations reflected not only political tributes but also personal admiration, underscoring Modi’s wide appeal as he entered his 75th year.(If you want to wish Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leave a comment below)