ET NEWS

Dalal Street set for 3–4% relief rally amid cooling war risks

1 week 1 day ago
Mumbai: India's benchmark equity gauges slumped 2.5% on Monday, with the sell-off eroding ₹14 lakh crore market cap in all BSE-listed companies. A rebound, however, is expected on Tuesday after the US President said attacks on Iran would be stopped for the next five days.Nifty finished at 22,512.65 - the lowest closing level since March last year - falling 601.85 points or 2.6%. Sensex ended at 72,696.39, down 2.5% or 1,836.57 points. Domestic indices have slumped nearly 11% since the start of West Asian hostilities.Trump's remarks, made after trading ended in Mumbai, sparked a 750-point rally in Dow Jones Industrial futures, a 3.1% surge in GIFT Nifty futures, and a 10% plunge in oil prices late on Monday. 129765025 Asian Stocks Down"There is a possibility of a relief rally of up to 3-4% on Tuesday led by short covering as concerns of further escalations ease - at least for five days," said Sunny Agrawal, head of fundamental research, SBI Securities.Trump's weekend warnings had sent shockwaves across the global financial markets, pulverising risk assets across the Asia Pacific.Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea slumped 6.5% despite record purchases by retail investors in Seoul, while China fell 3.6%. Japan and Hong Kong dropped 3.5% each. Taiwan fell 2.5% on Monday."The sharp reaction in the markets on Monday was due to the comments made by the US and Iran on further escalations and uncertainty about the duration of war and the subsequent risk of supply disruptions across sectors," said George Thomas, Fund Manager-Equity, Quantum AMC.Brent crude futures rose 2.5% to $109 a barrel earlier on Monday but cooled off to $96.8 after Trump's reconciliatory remarks."The US is also under inflationary pressure which could mean that this conflict may not be long drawn," said Thomas. "Investors can make staggered purchases, but it is advised to keep some dry powder because it is tough to tell whether the market has bottomed out."All sectoral indices slumped Monday. Nifty Consumer Durables slumped 5.2% while Nifty Metal and Realty indices dropped nearly 5%. Nifty PSU Bank fell 4.1% while Bank Nifty shed 3.7%.Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 5,518.4 crore on Monday. Their domestic counterparts bought shares worth Rs 5,706.23 crore. In March, global investors dumped stocks worth Rs 95,780.3 crore."Unless crude falls decisively, the rally might not be sustainable, and bears might return at higher levels," said Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities. "The index might move towards 23000-23500 in the near term."The Volatility Index (VIX) spiked 17.2% to 26.73, indicating that traders anticipate elevated risk in the near term.De said that the VIX could spike up further till 31-32 in the short term but also cross this threshold as uncertainty looms large. The broader markets witnessed sharper cuts. The Nifty Mid-cap 150 index dropped over 3.5% each. In the past one week, the mid-cap and small-cap indices declined around 3.6% and 3.9%, respectively.

Iran denies US talks, calls it 'fake news'

1 week 1 day ago
​Iran firmly denied on Monday claims by US President Donald Trump that negotiations toward peace are underway, dismissing them as “fake news” aimed at manipulating oil and financial markets. Tehran’s leadership said no talks had taken place, accusing Washington of trying to project diplomatic progress while continuing military pressure. The sharp rebuttal comes even as Trump announced a five-day pause on targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure, citing what he described as “productive” backchannel discussions.On the ground, however, events have moved in the opposite direction, with fresh strikes hitting gas facilities and pipelines in Tehran, suggesting escalation continues.Also Read |Pentagon officials weigh deployment of airborne troops for Iran warWith attacks intensifying, regional spillover growing and signals from Washington, Tehran and Tel Aviv increasingly at odds, the conflict is entering a phase where diplomacy and warfare are unfolding in parallel and contradicting matter.Iran rejects talks as 'fake news'Iran’s political leadership moved swiftly to push back against Washington’s claims of ongoing negotiations, sharpening the war of narratives alongside the conflict on the ground. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf publicly dismissed the assertions as “fake news,” accusing the United States of trying to manipulate oil and financial markets and deflect from mounting pressure in the war.Also Read | Trump approved Iran operation after Netanyahu argued for joint killing of Khamenei, sources sayIran’s elite Revolutionary Guards reinforced that stance, calling the claims “psychological operations” designed to project weakness onto Tehran while buying time diplomatically. They insisted such messaging had no impact on Iran’s military calculations, adding that operations would continue unabated. Officials also signalled that any notion of de-escalation was premature, with rhetoric emphasising retaliation and accountability rather than compromise. Ghalibaf said Iranian leadership remained aligned behind the country’s supreme leadership and committed to pursuing what he described as a “decisive response” to aggression.Even as indirect channels through regional intermediaries such as Gulf states and Pakistan were reported, Tehran maintained there had been no direct engagement with Washington.Energy infra remains under attackDespite the announcement of a pause, strikes on Iran’s energy network have continued, reinforcing the sense that developments on the ground are diverging sharply from political messaging. Tehran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported that gas facilities in Isfahan were hit, including a pressure reduction station and offices linked to a gas company - key components in maintaining steady fuel supply across regions.In Khorramshahr, a separate strike targeted a pipeline feeding a power station, raising concerns about disruptions not just to electricity generation but also to industrial activity dependent on stable energy flows.

Sebi approves tighter conflict code, easier FPI settlement plan

1 week 1 day ago
Mumbai: The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) Monday approved new conflict-of-interest norms that would apply to its chair, and sought to ease settlement rules to draw overseas funds - currently dumping local stock - to Mumbai-listed shares. Tougher conflict-of- interest norms for Sebi board members and employees in insider trading rules would now be sent to the Centre for its consideration and publication so that the amended rules are legally binding on the current and future government appointees to the regulator. Separately, Sebi board approval for the net settlement of cash market trades for foreign portfolio investors (FPI) is expected to lower costs. An expert panel was formed by Sebi chief Tuhin Kanta Pandey after his predecessor, Madhabi Puri Buch, faced significant allegations, including conflict of interest. Classifying the Sebi chairperson and whole-time members as 'insiders' will subject them to the same legal trading restrictions as employees, ensuring they can't trade while possessing price-sensitive information. Sebi said it would revise its code on conflict of interest for members of the board for voluntary adoption. In the meantime, it would also refer the recommendations of the expert panel to the central government so that it gets legal sanctity. Under the Sebi Act, the government is empowered to make such rules.“As the central government is the appointing authority and prescribes the terms and conditions of service of board members, the central government will be the appropriate authority to take a decision in this matter,” Sebi said in a statement after the board meeting. The regulator said, top Sebi officials including the chairperson, would have to publicly disclose their assets and liabilities, in line with government norms that mandate officials to declare their immovable properties to their respective departments at the time of joining. A digital recusal process would also be put in place to record disclosure of conflicted relationships, Sebi said.‘FOR THE FPIS’ Separately, Sebi also eased transaction settlement rules for foreign portfolio investors, allowing them to settle the net value of their cash market trades. Currently required to settle trades on a gross basis, FPIs often face higher funding and foreign exchange costs. The shift to net settlement — where buy and sell obligations can be offset — will reduce capital requirements, particularly during high-volume events such as index rebalancing. “The proposal is expected to reduce the cost of funding for FPIs, particularly on index rebalancing days, when outright purchases and sales occur in incoming and outgoing index constituents, respectively,” Sebi said. “Since non-outright transactions will continue to be confirmed and settled on a gross basis, concerns relating to potential market influence arising from large FPI positions or speculative trading activity are allayed,” it said. An outright transaction is a one-way trade where an investor either buys or sells, but not both, in a particular security in a settlement cycle. Sebi also revised its “fit and proper” criteria for market intermediaries such as stock brokers, removing automatic disqualification for pending criminal cases while tightening norms for convictions involving economic offences. The regulator also introduced relief measures for Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) nearing closure. Funds will now be allowed to retain liquidation proceeds beyond their tenure under specific conditions such as pending litigation or tax liabilities. A new category of ‘inoperative funds’ will allow such AIFs to operate with reduced compliance requirements until they formally surrender their licences. Further, Sebi sought to deepen retail participation in social impact funds by slashing the minimum investment threshold from Rs 2 lakh to Rs 1,000. The Sebi board also approval a proposal to allow InvITs (Infrastructure investment trusts) to continue holding investments in SPVs (special purpose vehicles) after a project’s concession period ends, widen the pool of liquid mutual funds for parking surplus funds, and permitting privately listed InvITs to invest up to 10% of assets in under-construction or greenfield projects.

BoB system error inflates EMIs

1 week 2 days ago
KOLKATA: A system error at Bank of Baroda may have led some of its home-loan customers to stump up more than what they were due to pay in scheduled monthly repayments in March, multiple people aware of the problem told ET. The public sector bank, its spokesperson said, has taken remedial steps.The bank, said multiple people ET spoke with, charged a higher interest rate by mistake, leading to the deduction of an amount exceeding the scheduled equated monthly instalment (EMI). Alternatively, the bank charged less interest in some cases than it ought to have, its spokesperson said.Several borrowers were also allegedly marked delinquent when there was insufficient balance in their accounts against the higher liabilities, causing panic. To add to their woes, private recovery agents have started chasing them as overdue amounts automatically trigger an alarm. These borrowers have also seen their credit score drop, raising their distress level.A bank spokesperson said that corrective measures have already been taken.Also Read: If you want to have good governance, you cannot be in a yes-sir mode: Sashidhar Jagdishan"Following a regular review, it was identified that in a limited set of accounts, an incorrect interest rate was applied. In accounts where excess amounts were debited, refunds have already been processed, while in cases where customers were charged less interest, the difference has been recovered," the spokesperson said, responding to ET's queries on the matter.The bank maintained that these adjustments have been carried out in line with the applicable loan terms as agreed by the customer."Such periodic reviews are a standard process to ensure accuracy and fairness in customer accounts. The bank remains committed to maintaining the highest standards of customer service," the spokesperson added.Home loans contribute half of BoB's retail loans and about 11% of gross loan portfolio, which stood at Rs 13.45 lakh crore at the end of December last year. The home loan portfolio stood at Rs 1.44 lakh crore, growing 16% year-on-year. Retail loan portfolio was at Rs 2.86 lakh crore.Also Read: Kotak Bank set to acquire Deutsche's retail business in Rs 4,500-crore dealThe affected borrowers alleged that the deduction of a higher amount from savings accounts happened without their knowledge. Where the savings balance didn't cover the higher demand, borrowers were told to pay more when they reached out to the lender, said a couple of affected borrowers ET spoke with."I had to pay a Rs 57,290 more over my EMI of Rs 98,953. I was told that if I don't pay the additional amount, the account will show overdue and it would be reported to the credit bureau," said a Pune-based BoB customer, Nishi Mrinal."The bank had created an additional demand of Rs 57,290. I had Rs 3,998 in my savings account which was deducted automatically without my knowledge and the balance Rs 53,292 was marked overdue and reported to the credit bureau. I later paid the overdue amount so that the credit score remains good," she said.ET reviewed her correspondence with the bank on this matter.

Scorpene subs fastest boost: Naval Group

1 week 2 days ago
New Delhi: Procurement of additional Scorpene submarines is the fastest way to augment the Indian Navy's fleet, French manufacturer Naval Group has said, adding that it hopes a decision to sign the contract will be taken at the earliest.In an interview with ET, Naval Group executive VP Eric Balufin said India can become a hub for the upgradation and sustenance of submarines in the region, pointing to several countries that operate the Scorpene class."In comparison to any new submarine design, which involves longer development cycles, new capital investment by the shipyard, new learning curves, and associated costs, Project 75 Additional Submarines will build on the skills already acquired by MDL, enabling manufacturing to begin as soon as the contract is signed," he said.An order for three additional Scorpene submarines - known as the Kalvari class in India - has been under discussion between the defence ministry and Mazagon Dockyards Limited (MDL), which has already delivered six submarines in partnership with Naval Group.The executive noted that discussions and commercial negotiations for the additional submarines were completed by MDL with the Indian government in early 2025, and expressed hope that a final decision to sign the contract would be taken soon."Naval Group, along with MDL, is ready to immediately begin construction by deputing the necessary skilled resources. It is the fastest way to add submarines to the Indian fleet," he said, describing the additional submarines as a "rapid, low-risk solution". He added producing the latest version could also open up opportunities beyond India, including joint exports to friendly partner nations. Balufin further said that the natural progression would be for India to emerge as a Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul hub for Scorpene-class submarines.The remarks come after the recent visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to India last month, during which he highlighted expanded defence cooperation with India, including in the field of submarines and fighter jets. Indian Navy is currently working on signing a contract for six new submarines with MDL under Project 75I. These submarines will be equipped with Air Independent Propulsion, providing them the ability to remain underwater for weeks. Germany's TKMS has been selected as the technology partner for the project.
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