ET NEWS

No let up in war & rhetoric, a break of 22,900 can take Nifty to 22,500

1 week 2 days ago
Fresh threats from Iran and a hardening stance by US President Donald Trump over the Strait of Hormuz have deepened investor nervousness, keeping markets on edge. Analysts said Nifty is likely to remain volatile, with the index holding key support around 22,900 but facing the risk of a decline towards 22,500 if tensions intensify. While the benchmark ended about half a percent higher at 23,114 on Friday after a sharp 3.3% drop the previous day, the near-term outlook remains fragile, with upside seen capped in the 23,400–24,200 range.TANMAY SHAH RESEARCH HEAD, SIHLWhere is Nifty headed this week? The market is at an inflection point. Technically, the index found strong support near the 22,930 mark last week, where it filled an unaddressed gap from the previous year. This zone coincides with the formation of a double-bottom pattern, indicating a potential base formation. The near-term bias appears cautiously positive. Nifty is likely to gravitate towards the 24,050–24,200 zone during the week, provided global cues remain stable. However, 22,900 remains a critical support level. A decisive close below this level would negate the bullish structure and trigger a sharper downside move towards 22,222. Trading Strategy: Recommend a Bull Call spread to position for a near-term upside. Traders may consider buying the 23,300 Call and selling the 23,800 Call of March 31 expiry. The strategy offers a favourable risk-reward with limited downside, while capturing gains if Nifty trends higher towards the upper resistance zone. It is well suited for a moderately bullish view amid improving technical setup. TOP STOCK BETS NMDC: CMP Rs 79.7 | Stop loss Rs 77.5 | Target Rs 84–89 Showing relative strength in a weak market, the stock is holding above its 20-week moving average, signalling a bullish bias with scope for fresh longs. Power Grid Corporation: CMP Rs 297.6 | Stop loss Rs 290 | Target Rs 314–319 Decisively moved above its 200- DMA after nearly a year, signalling a potential trend reversal and renewed strength, with the setup favouring fresh long positions.SUDEEP SHAH VICE PRESIDENT & HEAD OF TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, SBI SECURITIESWhere is Nifty headed this week? Technically, the trend remains weak, with Nifty trading below key averages and RSI near oversold levels. Three successive rebounds were swiftly sold into, underscoring bearish dominance. Going ahead, 22,850–22,800 zone will act as immediate support. A sustained breach below this level could accelerate the decline towards 22,500. On the upside, 23,420–23,460 zone is likely to act as stiff resistance, with any pullback expected to face selling pressure. Trading Strategy: The recommended Nifty options strategy for the March 24 expiry is a Put Spread, suited for a moderately bearish outlook. The trader buys one lot of the 23,100 strike Puts at a premium of Rs 210–215 and sells one lot of the 22,900 strike Puts at Rs 138–142. This strategy limits both risk and reward. The breakeven point is 23,030. The maximum loss is Rs 4,500 if Nifty does not fall below 23,030, while the maximum profit is Rs 8,500 if Nifty closes at 22,900 or below on expiry. TOP STOCK BETS JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals: CMP Rs 2,138 | Stop loss Rs 2,030 | Target Rs 2,260–2,280 In a steady uptrend, the stock is trading above key moving averages, with higher highs and higher lows signalling strengthening momentum. Coal India: CMP Rs 468 | Stop loss Rs 447 | Target Rs 500–515 Trading near its 52-week high, the stock shows sustained strength and outperformance, with higher lows reinforcing a bullish trend.NAGARAJ SHETTI SENIOR TECHNICAL RESEARCH ANALYST, HDFC SECURITIES Where is Nifty headed this week? The underlying trend of Nifty remains weak. The lack of strength in the upside bounce signals a possible breakdown of 22,900 support soon. On a breakdown, the next lower target is seen at 22,500. Immediate resistance is placed at 23,400. Trading Strategy: The underlying trend remains weak. One may look to sell Nifty April futures and also sell on rises around 23,500 levels. Traders may also consider buying the 22,500 PE of April 7 expiry around Rs 260–230 for a potential downside towards 22,500. Short positions should be placed with a strict stop loss at Nifty spot 23,400. TOP STOCKS BETS West Coast Paper Mills: Buy at Rs 433| Stop loss Rs 414 | Target Rs 467 | Timeframe: 1 Week After a recent sharp upmove, the stock shows a bullish breakout pattern with rising volumes and strengthening RSI signalling positive momentum. Varun Beverages: Sell at Rs 401.5 | CMP Rs 401.8 | Stop loss Rs 417 | Target Rs 375 | Timeframe: 1 week In a down-trend with lower tops and bottoms, the stock has resumed its decline after forming a lower top at Rs 418, with weak volume and RSI signalling continued downside.

Aramco boss pulls out of major energy meet

1 week 2 days ago
​Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser has cancelled his planned appearance at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston to remain in Saudi Arabia because of the Iran conflict, an industry source told Reuters.Nasser, who has been CEO of the world's top oil exporter for more than a decade, is usually one of the headline speakers at the ‌conference, one of ⁠the energy ⁠industry's biggest events.Also Read | Saudi Aramco reports 12% drop in 2025 profit amid lower salesCERAWeek, which is organised by S&P Global and begins on Monday, draws top executives, government officials and policymakers from around the world to discuss the global energy market outlook. Nasser's ​withdrawal highlights the scale of the challenge he faces in dealing with the Iran crisis. An S&P Global spokesperson did not have an immediate comment and said ​any program updates would appear on the published agenda online. The conflict, now in its fourth week, has killed more than 2,000 people, upended global markets and spurred Iranian retaliatory strikes that have effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz and targeted Gulf energy infrastructure, including Aramco's. U.S. President Donald Trump ​and Iran have threatened to escalate the war, targeting energy and fuel facilities in the Gulf. ⁠Trump on Saturday ‌threatened to bomb Iran's power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait, through which a fifth of ​the world's oil supplies ​normally flow.Also Read | Oil markets may face 'catastrophic consequences' amidst Mideast war, warns Saudi Aramco CEOSheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, CEO of state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, will also not attend the Houston gathering but ⁠will join a Tuesday session at the conference virtually from Kuwait, a separate source said.ENERGY INSTALLATIONS ​UNDER ATTACKAramco is facing its biggest crisis since the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2019 attacks on ​Aramco's Abqaiq and Khurais facilities that temporarily knocked out more than half of Saudi crude output. During a March 10 earnings call, Nasser told reporters there would be "catastrophic consequences" for the world's oil markets if the Iran war continues to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. To bypass the strait, Aramco is piping millions of barrels per day (bpd) of crude from its east coast to its west coast. It has cut oil output by about 2 million bpd from two fields, Reuters has reported. The alternative route means tankers load at the Red Sea port of Yanbu, which temporarily stopped loadings last ‌week, sending prices surging, after a ballistic missile interception and drone strike at an adjacent refinery. The SAMREF refinery, an Aramco-Exxon joint venture, was struck by a drone on March 19, when Iran targeted energy installations across the Gulf - including Kuwait's - ​in response to ​Israel's strikes on its South Pars gas field. That ⁠wave of attacks hit Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas complex, with QatarEnergy's chief telling Reuters 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity would be offline for up to five years.KEY ABU DHABI EXECUTIVESAbu Dhabi wealth fund Mubadala is unlikely to have any representatives at the event, a source ​familiar with the matter said.It was not immediately clear if Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of the UAE's oil company ADNOC, would attend in person. He is listed as a speaker on the event website. ADNOC did not immediately respond to a request for comment. At last year's conference, Jaber said it was time to "make energy great again," mirroring Trump's Make America Great Again slogan while pledging large investments in the U.S. by ADNOC's international investments arm XRG. Nasser last year told CERAWeek there was more of a chance of Elvis speaking than current energy transition plans away from fossil fuels succeeding.

Dividend-paying companies offer a safer bet with capital gains uncertainty

1 week 2 days ago
ET Intelligence Group: Amid rising uncertainty of capital gains on equities in a volatile market, dividend-paying stocks are back in the limelight. Select companies, especially those with a mature business model and, therefore, having steady cash flows tend to pay dividends regularly in a bid to return the excess cash generated from the operations to shareholders. However, merely considering the absolute dividend payout per share will not reveal whether a stock looks attractive at its current price. For that, dividend yield comes in handy. It is calculated as the annual dividend per share divided by the stock price. The ratio makes it easier to compare stocks across sectors to arrive at an investment decision. ETIG has identified 10 stocks offering dividend yields of 4% or more based on FY25 payouts: Vedanta (6.3% yield), Coal India (5.7%), REC (5.4%), Hindustan Zinc (5.3%), GAIL (5.1%), ITC (4.8%), ONGC (4.6%), RITES (4.5%), NMDC (4.2%), and Oracle Financial Services Software (4.1%). 129740776 A caveat for investors looking at dividend yields - the current yields are based on the past year's dividend payouts. While companies do strive to maintain a stable dividend payout relative to net profit on a longer horizon, fluctuations due to government policies, economic and geopolitical uncertainties cannot be ruled out especially when such aberrations tend to affect profitability. For instance, ITC's stock currently trades near the 52-week low amid a sharp rise in tobacco excise duties since February 1, which has affected investor sentiment. While the company continued to declare an interim dividend of ₹6.5 on January 29, same as in the previous year, future payout will depend upon how well it can protect profitability amid a higher excise duty regime. In addition, effective yields will vary depending on investors' marginal tax rates, as dividends are taxed in shareholders' hands. For instance, a taxpayer facing a marginal tax rate of 30% and 4% educational cess will receive an effective dividend yield which will be over two-third of the calculated yield. For such a taxpayer, Vedanta's effective dividend yield will be around 4.3%. Also, the list does not include companies such as TCS, HCL Technologies, and UTI AMC, where yields are high due to special dividends. To be sure, companies operating in the sectors with high cash generation such as the IT sector tend to distribute special dividends more often than others.
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2 hours 57 minutes ago
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