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Domestic frontline indices ended with gains on Friday, led by strong action in IT, auto and metal stocks though weakness in banks and financials capped the gains. The broader Nifty rose 112.35 points, or 0.49%, to close at 23,114.50, while the 30-share Sensex gained 325.72 points, or 0.44%, to settle at 74,532.96.Global cues remain negative with the Iran-Israel war entering the fourth week. The energy prices remain elevated with Brent hovering near the $113 a barrel mark. For domestic markets, persistent FII outflows and rupee weakness remain a growing concern.Fear index India settled at 22.81 on the NSE in the last session, mildly up by 0.04%.Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:Q: Nifty ended mildly negative at 0.2% WoW, narrowing its losses through Friday gains as the bull started emphatically but lost momentum towards the end. Was it short covering or do you see the trend continuing next week as well?Markets have little tolerance for uncertainty—and the ongoing escalation in West Asia since February 28 has kept risk appetite firmly in check. Since the onset of the conflict, the Nifty has corrected sharply by over 2000 points, reflecting the sustained pressure from global cues and risk-off sentiment.The price action during this phase has been telling. The index has witnessed three distinct dead cat bounces, each met with aggressive selling at higher levels—clearly underscoring the firm grip of bears on the market. Every pullback has been sold into, highlighting a lack of conviction among buyers. While Nifty managed to end the current week on a flat note, the underlying weakness continues to persist.Volatility remained elevated throughout the week. The index staged a sharp recovery of nearly 900 points in the first three trading sessions, only to see all gains completely erased on Thursday-marking the sharpest single-day decline since June 4, 2024. Ultimately, Nifty ended the week on a muted note, extending its losing streak to four consecutive weeks.Sectorally, the pain has been most visible in Automobile and Banking stocks, which were the key outperformers prior to the conflict. These sectors have borne the brunt of selling pressure, largely driven by sustained FII outflows, with foreign investors offloading a massive ₹81262 crore in the ongoing March series. Given their heavy exposure to these sectors, FII selling has amplified the downside momentum.A major overhang for the markets has been the sharp surge in crude oil prices. Brent crude once again spiked to $114.3 per barrel during the week before witnessing a marginal cooling off. Simultaneously, concerns around gas shortages and supply disruptions have intensified, with key energy commodities witnessing steep price increases since the start of the conflict. Elevated energy prices continue to pose a risk to inflation dynamics and corporate margins, thereby weighing on equity markets.From a technical standpoint, the trend remains decisively negative. The index is currently trading below its all the crucial moving averages, and the formation of a bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow indicates persistent selling pressure at higher levels. Adding to the caution, the weekly RSI has slipped to 30.22, marking its lowest level since the COVID-led market correction—signalling deeply oversold conditions, yet without a clear reversal trigger.Q: What levels will be important for Nifty this week and how should one trade? For Nifty, the 22,850–22,800 zone will act as immediate support. A sustained breach below this level could accelerate the decline towards 22,500. On the upside, the 23,420–23,460 zone is likely to act as a stiff resistance, with any pullback expected to face selling pressure in this band.Q: Market's lackluster performance can be attributed to Nifty Bank, which has delivered its third worst performance in March in the past 20 years, declining by nearly 11%. What do Bank Nifty charts suggest and how to trade?For the fourth consecutive week, the banking benchmark index Bank Nifty ended on a negative note, underscoring sustained weakness and persistent selling pressure in the banking space. Most notably, on the weekly chart, the index has formed a small-bodied candle with a long upper shadow, which clearly reflects selling pressure emerging at higher levels and a failure to sustain intraday and weekly recoveries.Furthermore, for the second straight week, Bank Nifty has closed below its 100-week EMA, which is a crucial long-term trend indicator and reinforces the bearish undertone. On the daily timeframe, the index continues to remain under pressure, as it has been trading consistently below its 200-day EMA for the past ten trading sessions. This prolonged stay below the long-term moving average highlights a loss of medium-term trend strength and indicates that rallies are being sold into.Momentum indicators also remain firmly biased towards the downside. Both the daily and weekly RSI are placed in bearish territory and are sloping downward, suggesting weakening momentum and limited scope for any meaningful upside in the near term.Going forward, the zone of 54,300–54,400 is expected to act as a key resistance area for the index. As long as Bank Nifty trades below the 54400 mark, the broader outlook is likely to remain negative. In such a scenario, the index may continue its downward trajectory and test the immediate support near 52,200, followed by the next important support around 51500 in theQ: Auto sector is another top loser and its prospects are tied to oil prices and inflation. In light of the Iran-Israel war, do you expect more correction, or is a bottom visible? Nifty Auto staged a strong rebound in line with the broader market, bouncing from the 24,230–23,850 zone, a region that had previously acted as strong resistance during June–August 2025. However, the pullback proved short-lived as the index encountered stiff resistance near the 25,700–25,750 zone and eventually closed lower.Notably, after facing rejection around the 28,720–28,820 zone between February 11–26, 2026, the index has corrected nearly 14%, confirming a double-top neckline breakdown in the process.Technically, the index continues to trade below its key short and long-term moving averages, indicating a weak underlying trend. Momentum indicators also remain bearish. The RSI has failed to sustain above the 40 mark despite multiple attempts, while the MACD remains below both the zero line and the signal line. Additionally, a rising ADX suggests strengthening bearish momentum.Going ahead, the 25,200–25,300 zone is likely to act as a crucial resistance. As long as the index remains below this level, the broader trend is expected to stay negative. On the downside, the 24,200–24,100 zone serves as a key support, and a decisive breach below this range could trigger further downside in the index Q: Fed has left policy rates unchanged and has indicated a single rate cut of 25 bps this year. This comes as a blow to the tech sector which is already reeling under the AI threat. What is your take on the sector and any preferred stock to buy?Since peaking at 40,301 on 3rd February, the Nifty IT Index has corrected sharply by nearly 28%, reflecting a combination of global macro headwinds and a deeper structural concern around AI disruption.While a stronger dollar typically acts as a tailwind for IT companies due to higher export realizations, this time the benefit has been overshadowed. The core issue lies in the growing perception that AI poses a fundamental threat to traditional IT services, especially in areas like low-end coding, maintenance, and repetitive back-office functions. Markets have been quick to price in this risk, leading to sustained selling pressure.That said, it’s important to note that leading IT companies are not standing still. Firms like Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and HCLTech have been actively investing in AI capabilities, building proprietary platforms, and integrating AI-led solutions into their service offerings. However, this transition is gradual in nature, the benefits are unlikely to reflect immediately in earnings and may take a few quarters to materialize meaningfully.From a technical standpoint, the setup remains weak. The index continues to trade below its key short- and long-term moving averages, indicating a sustained downtrend. The MACD line remains well below both the signal line and the zero line, reinforcing bearish momentum. Although the pace of decline has moderated recently, there are still no clear signs of base formation or trend reversal.Given this backdrop, it would be prudent to avoid bottom fishing at this stage. A more sensible approach would be to wait for signs of stabilization, such as sustained price strength, improving momentum indicators, or evidence of earnings resilience driven by AI adoption, before considering fresh exposure to the sector.Q: India VIX is up 68% in a month and volatility is expected to remain high going ahead. How should one navigate this phase?With India VIX surging 68% in a month, investors should prioritize capital protection. Focus on disciplined position sizing, avoid aggressive leverage, and stick to high-quality stocks. Use rallies to reduce risk, maintain higher cash levels, and wait for volatility to cool before taking directional bets.Q: Olectra, JBM Auto and Jai Prakash Power Ventures were big gainers this week, while Chennai IDBI Bank, Bandhan Bank and BPCL have been big losers. What should investors do with them?Olectra GreentechThe stock has witnessed a strong rebound from the lows of 865. However, it remains in a broader downtrend since October 2025, and it is still premature to classify the current move as a trend reversal. For any meaningful upside traction, the stock needs to sustain above the 980–975 zone.JBM AutoThe stock rebounded sharply from its key support zone of 490–470 earlier this week. That said, it continues to face resistance near its previous swing high of 615–620. Unless this zone is decisively breached, the current pullback cannot be considered a confirmed trend reversal.Jaiprakash Power VenturesThe stock has delivered a downward-sloping trendline breakout on the daily chart, supported by a rise in volumes. Momentum indicators are turning constructive. RSI is trending higher, and the DI+ is comfortably above DI- on the ADX, indicating bullish undertones. The stock needs to hold above the 14.5–14 zone to sustain the move. However, being a penny stock, it warrants a cautious approach.IDBI BankThe stock witnessed a sharp gap-down of nearly 17% on 16th March and has continued to drift lower since then. RSI remains weak at around 25, highlighting persistent bearish momentum. As long as the stock trades below the 80–82 zone, the broader trend is likely to remain negative.Bandhan BankThe stock has corrected nearly 17% from its recent high of 190 recorded on 26th February. It continues to trade below key moving averages, while the MACD remains below both the zero line and signal line, indicating sustained weakness. The trend is likely to stay bearish as long as the price remains below 165–167.BPCLThe stock Bharat Petroleum Corporation slipped below its 200-day EMA on 9th March and has been under pressure since. It has corrected nearly 26% from its high of 390 on 27th February. A rising ADX points to strengthening bearish momentum. As long as the stock trades below the 307–310 zone, the overall trend is expected to remain weak.(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

Beirut: Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) rebuilt Hezbollah's military command after it was mauled by Israel in 2024, plugging gaps with Iranian officers before restructuring the Lebanese group ​and laying plans for the war it is now waging in support of ​Tehran, two people familiar with these IRGC activities said.The overhaul was the first of its kind for Hezbollah, a Shi'ite Muslim group founded by the ​IRGC in 1982, pointing to a hands-on approach after the blows of the 2024 war, including the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top commanders.Iran's investment paid off, getting Hezbollah back on its feet in time to enter the war in the Middle East on Tehran's side after it was attacked by the United States and Israel.Follow live coverage on Middle East warReuters reported earlier in March that Hezbollah had seen another war as inevitable and spent months readying itself. This article sheds light on the ‌IRGC's role in these preparations, ⁠based on accounts ⁠from six sources who spoke on condition of anonymity as well as an expert on Hezbollah.The IRGC, deeply involved in Hezbollah since it was established, sent officers to retrain its fighters and oversee rearmament, the two sources familiar with IRGC activities said.They said IRGC officers ​also reshaped Hezbollah command structures that had been breached by Israeli intelligence - a factor that had helped Israel kill many Hezbollah leaders.An Israeli military spokesperson said on March 12 that Hezbollah remains a relevant and dangerous force ​despite the damage Israel has inflicted on it over the last three years. Also read: West Asia war: India likely looking at Iran oil return as US waives sanctions, but Tehran throws a spannerHezbollah has fired hundreds of missiles at Israel since it entered the regional war on March 2, prompting an Israeli offensive that has killed more than 1,000 people in Lebanon. Hezbollah fighters are battling Israeli soldiers who have seized ground in the south. It has yet to be seen how Hezbollah, its power still below the peak levels seen a few ​years ago, would fare in the event of a full-scale Israeli invasion.Hezbollah's media office, Iran's Foreign Ministry and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ⁠office did ‌not immediately respond to requests for comment.Netanyahu said in January that Hezbollah was making efforts to rearm and rebuild its infrastructure with Iranian support.SCRAPPING HIERARCHYThe two sources said ​IRGC officers tasked with helping Hezbollah ​recover arrived shortly after a ceasefire in November 2024, and set to work even as Israel continued to strike.One of them said the deployment involved about 100 ⁠officers.Changes implemented at their behest included replacing a hierarchical command structure with a decentralised one, comprising small units with ​limited knowledge of each other's operations, helping to preserve operational secrecy.They said IRGC officers also drew up plans for missile attacks against Israel that ​would be launched simultaneously from Iran and Lebanon - a scenario executed for the first time on March 11. A senior Lebanese security source said Iranian commanders had helped Hezbollah rehabilitate and reorganize their military cadres. The source said he believed the Iranians were helping Hezbollah pace the current conflict rather than being involved in the detail of picking targets.Also read: Trump says considering 'winding down' Iran war but rules out ceasefireAnother source briefed on the matter said the IRGC sent officers to Lebanon in 2024 to conduct a post-war audit of Hezbollah, and took direct supervision of its military wing.An additional two sources said the IRGC had embedded special advisers with Hezbollah last year to help it direct military affairs.Andreas Krieg, a lecturer at the security studies department of King's College London, said the IRGC "has basically reorganized Hezbollah as a far more flat system", contrasting this with the political hierarchy that had emerged around Nasrallah before his ‌death. "That decentralized model that they've now implemented is also a bit more like what Hezbollah looked like in the 1980s - very small cells," said Krieg, who has researched the group for 15 years. He described this as a "mosaic defence" that is also being used by the IRGC in Iran. LEBANON ASKED IRGC TO LEAVE COUNTRYThe IRGC's efforts were ​going on at the same ​time as Lebanon's government and its U.S.-backed military were seeking ⁠to advance a process to disarm the group, underscoring a huge complication facing that objective.Lebanon estimates that around 100 to 150 Iranian nationals in the country have ties to the Iranian government that go beyond normal diplomatic functions, including links to the IRGC, a Lebanese official told Reuters. The official said the government asked those people to leave Lebanon in early March.The two sources familiar with IRGC activities said ​Guards officers were among more than 150 Iranians who left Beirut on a flight to Russia on March 7.IRGC members were among the roughly 500 people killed by Israeli attacks in Lebanon in the 15 months between the 2024 ceasefire and the eruption of the new war. Around a dozen more have been killed in Israeli attacks since the war erupted, including in a strike on a Beirut hotel on March 8, they said. The IRGC has been closely involved in Hezbollah since its men established the group in the eastern Bekaa Valley to export Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution and fight Israeli forces that had invaded Lebanon in 1982.Qassem Soleimani, the top IRGC general who was killed in 2020 by a U.S. drone strike, had worked alongside Nasrallah during Hezbollah's 2006 war with Israel. When Israeli airstrikes killed Nasrallah in a bunker in Beirut's southern suburbs, an Iranian general was among those who died alongside him.

Gold prices have remained unexpectedly weak even as geopolitical tensions in West Asia intensify—a stark contrast to gold’s traditional reputation as a safe-haven asset during global crises. Since 01 March, international gold prices have dropped nearly 13%, while domestic prices in India have fallen about 10%. Silver has corrected even more sharply, with global prices down 25% and domestic prices lower by 21%. This unusual divergence between rising geopolitical risk and falling precious metal prices highlights deeper macroeconomic forces at play. It also raises the question: Is this merely a short-term consolidation, or does it signal a structural shift in investor behaviour?Strong U.S. Dollar Limits Safe-Haven GainsOne of the biggest factors suppressing gold is the renewed strength of the U.S. dollar. During periods of geopolitical stress, global investors flock not only to gold but also to the dollar, which offers superior liquidity and global acceptance.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen sharply from around 97 in mid-February to 100.15 by mid-March, reflecting strong safe-haven flows into the greenback. Since gold is dollar-priced, a stronger USD makes bullion costlier for other currency holders, dampening investment and physical demand. As a result, the usual geopolitical boost for gold has been overshadowed by the dollar’s resurgence.Rising U.S. Treasury Yields and Higher Oil Prices Pressure BullionGold has also faced pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making government bonds more attractive in comparison. At the same time, surging oil prices amid the Iran–Middle East conflict have intensified inflation worries. Investors now expect central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, to keep interest rates elevated for longer. This environment strengthens yield-bearing assets and weakens gold’s appeal, even during geopolitical upheavals.Overvaluation and Heavy Profit-TakingGold had already staged a robust rally before the West Asia conflict erupted. After such a steep climb, the metal entered what many considered overvalued territory. Investors were reluctant to increase their exposure at elevated levels. When volatility spiked after the conflict intensified, traders seized the opportunity to book profits, leading to liquidation pressure instead of the typical safe-haven inflows. Markets tend to react this way after extended rallies, where investors prefer locking in gains rather than adding fresh positions. This wave of profit-taking diluted the potential upside from geopolitical tensions.Liquidity-Driven Selling and Geopolitical Risk Already Priced InDuring periods of sharp market stress, investors often prioritise liquidity above all else. Gold, being one of the most liquid assets globally, frequently becomes a source of cash to cover losses, meet margin calls, or rebalance portfolios. This liquidity-driven selling has been a key factor in the recent correction, overpowering safe-haven demand. Additionally, much of the geopolitical premium was already factored in gold prices at the start of 2026. Earlier conflicts, global recession fears, and currency volatility had kept gold elevated. With markets already positioned for ongoing instability and upcoming U.S. political developments, fresh upside triggers were limited.Shift in Interest Rate Expectations and Overbought TechnicalsExpectations around future U.S. interest rates have also influenced gold’s trajectory. Speculation surrounding potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership and delays in rate cuts have kept real yields high, reducing gold’s relative attractiveness.On the technical front, both gold and silver were significantly overbought, which was reflected in elevated RSI readings. This indicated stretched speculative positioning and increased vulnerability to corrections. Traders took advantage of these technical signals to unwind bullish positions, adding to the downside pressure.Why Indian Gold Prices Stayed Steady Despite a Weak RupeeDespite the Indian rupee weakening to record lows, an event that typically pushes domestic gold prices higher by increasing import costs, gold prices in India have remained relatively steady. This unusual trend is largely due to the sharp decline in international gold prices, which has offset the higher landed cost caused by currency depreciation. At the same time, domestic demand has been subdued, as months of elevated prices have dampened jewellery buying and kept household budgets under pressure. Importers have also adopted a cautious stance, avoiding aggressive purchases amid volatile global conditions. These factors have prevented domestic prices from rising in proportion to the rupee’s weakness.Outlook: Choppy Near Term, Constructive Long TermLooking ahead, bullion is expected to remain choppy in the near term, with strong U.S. dollar conditions, elevated real yields, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook likely to dominate price movement. Periodic bouts of liquidity-driven selling may add to short-term volatility, keeping gold and silver rangebound. However, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains constructive. Persistent geopolitical fragmentation, ongoing central bank diversification away from major reserve currencies, underlying inflation risks, and tightening supply, particularly in silver, continue to support a favourable multi-year outlook for precious metals. As global growth moderates and monetary authorities eventually shift toward easing cycles, both gold and silver are poised to strengthen their roles as strategic hedges. With structural demand remaining firm and supply constraints becoming more pronounced, the long-term upside potential for both metals appears increasingly compelling.(The author of the article is Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments Limited)