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Tokyo: Japan's economy limped back to meagre growth in the fourth ​quarter, significantly missing market expectations in a key test for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government as cost-of-living pressures drag on confidence and domestic demand.Fresh off a sweeping election victory, Takaichi's administration is preparing to ramp up investment through targeted public spending in sectors seen as vital to economic security.Monday's data bring ‌sharp focus to ⁠the challenge ⁠at hand for policymakers at a time when the Bank of Japan has reiterated its pledge to keep raising interest rates and normalise monetary settings from years ​of ultra-low borrowing costs."It shows that the economy's recovery momentum is not very strong," Meiji Yasuda Research Institute economist Kazutaka Maeda said. "Consumption, capital ​expenditure and exports - areas we hoped would drive the economy - just haven't been as strong as we expected."Gross domestic product in the world's fourth-largest economy increased an annualised 0.2% in the October-December quarter, government data showed, well short of a median market estimate of ​a 1.6% gain in a Reuters poll. It barely scraped back to growth from ⁠a larger ‌revised 2.6% contraction in the previous quarter.The reading translates into a quarterly rise of 0.1%, also weaker ​than the median ​estimate of a 0.4% uptick.Economists project Japan will continue to expand at a gradual pace in ⁠coming months, though the fourth quarter's weak outcome suggests the economy might struggle ​to fire on all cylinders."Whether the economy can achieve sustainable growth really depends on whether real ​wages can firmly return to positive growth," Shinichiro Kobayashi, principal economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, said. "In that sense, the key will be the outcome of this year's wage negotiations in the coming months."A survey this month by the Japan Center for Economic Research showed 38 economists forecast an average annualised growth of 1.04% in the first quarter and 1.12% in the second quarter this year.Kobayashi said the GDP report is unlikely to affect the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions. "Rather than this rate hike ‌causing the economy to stall, the BOJ's focus is likely to be on how to contain inflation," he said.Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of economic output, rose 0.1% in October-December, ​matching market estimates.It cooled from ​the 0.4% rise in the ⁠previous quarter, indicating that persistently high food costs remain a drag on household spending.Capital spending, a key driver of private demand-led growth, also rose at a slow pace of 0.2% in the fourth quarter, versus a rise of 0.8% in the Reuters poll.Net ​external demand, or exports minus imports, contributed nothing to growth, versus a 0.3 point drag in the July-September period.Exports posted a milder drop after the United States formalised a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, down from 27.5% on autos and initially threatened 25% on most other goods."The impact of tariffs appears to have peaked in July-September, but judging from the latest results, there is at least some possibility that firms will continue to take a somewhat cautious stance going forward," Meiji Yasuda's Maeda said.

Mumbai: Corporate revenues in the three months to December surged the most in six quarters, undergirding double-digit profit growth for India Inc for six months in a row, as the biggest goods and services tax (GST) reforms since the 2017 nationwide adoption of a uniform levy drove sales higher in sectors such as automotive, energy, metals and financials. Buoyancy in these large-weighting sectors helped offset the one-time financial impact of India's revamped labour codes on the $280-billion technology outsourcing and communications businesses that collectively have significant weights on the Nifty 50 - just after the financials.128401777 Momentum Seen in FY27 Analysts expect India's corporate earnings to maintain their world-leading, double-digit growth rates in FY27 too, as bespoke trade deals on either side of the Atlantic seaboard buoy New Delhi's export prospects in two of the world's largest consuming blocs. In the third quarter, for a common sample of 3,723 companies considered by ETIG, revenue and net profit rose 9.8% and 13.5%, respectively. The growth rates were 8.1% for revenue and 14.5% for net profit in the second quarter ended September 2025. "Earnings growth for the companies under coverage at 16% year-on-year was in line with our estimates, largely driven by metals, oil and gas, and banking and finance sectors," said Gautam Duggad, institutional research head, Motilal Oswal Financial Services citing that Nifty 50 companies delivered 7% profit growth. ETIG's aggregate sample excludes the numbers of Tata Motors PV because the company had significant exceptional gains of Rs 82,616 crore in the September quarter due to the demerger of the commercial vehicles business. This resulted in net profit of Rs 76,248 crore, forming 15% of the sample's profit for the second quarter, thereby skewing the base. Including Tata Motors PV numbers to the total sample, net profit growth in the December 2025 quarter drops to 11.1% and that in the previous quarter jumps to 33.7%. Revenue growth, too, falls to 8.5% and 7.7%, in that order. According to Feroze Azeez, joint CEO, Anand Rathi Wealth, broader market profit growth was better than that of the benchmark Nifty 50 companies. Size Doesn't Matter "This divergence suggests that earnings traction is shifting toward mid- and small-cap companies, supported by sectoral rotation, operating leverage benefits, and relatively lower base effects," Azeez said. The sample's operating margin contracted 60 basis points year-on-year to 17.8%. It remained flat at 15.4% after excluding banks and finance companies, reflecting that the lending sector continued to show pressure on net interest margins (NIM), or their core profitability. One basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Azeez believes that India Inc's margin outlook appears selectively constructive, with resilience in capital-intensive and financial sectors. "Globally linked and consumption-driven segments may experience gradual normalisation rather than sharp expansion," he added. Sectorally, the performance was rather mixed. "The energy sector benefited from relatively low and stable crude oil prices, while better loan growth and stable asset quality underpinned the strength in financials," said Antu Eapen Thomas, research analyst, Geojit Investments. On the downside, communication services and consumer discretionary were the major laggards amid one-time provisions related to the new labour codes, Thomas said. Better & Brighter The outlook appears to be brighter. Duggad believes that earnings momentum will strengthen further, supported by a low base in FY25 and improving business fundamentals. "The resolution of the India-US trade deal removes a significant overhang and positions India among the most competitive exporters relative to key emerging market peers," he said. According to Geojit's Thomas, the GST rationalisation implemented in late 2025 has supported disposable income, providing an additional boost to consumption. "Nifty 50 earnings growth is projected at 5-6% for FY26, accelerating to 12-15% in FY27," he said. Anand Rathi's Azeez expects a meaningful recovery in FY27 following consolidation in FY26. "In the coming quarters, opportunities are expected to emerge in sectors such as capital expenditure and infrastructure, supported by sustained government spending and a revival in private capital expenditure," he said.

After failing to hold above 26,000 last week, analysts expect Nifty to remain range-bound, with traders likely to stay cautious. Support is seen at 25,300 and 25,100, below which further downside may emerge, while resistance lies in the 25,700–26,000 zone, where volatility could persist.RUCHIT JAIN VICE PRESIDENT, MOTILAL OSWAL FINANCIAL SERVICESWhere is Nifty headed this week? The pullback move last week witnessed selling pressure around the psychological mark of 26,000, making it a key short-term resistance zone. Nifty has ended below its 20-DEMA of 25,630.1, led primarily by weakness in IT stocks. Market breadth has also deteriorated in the last couple of sessions, indicating selling in broader markets as well. Technically, this indicates a rangebound-to-negative bias trend for Nifty in the immediate term. Strong support is placed in the range of 25,200–25,100, while resistance remains firm at 26,000. Trading Strategies: As Nifty has already seen a correction from resistance and is still away from its support, the risk-reward for directional positions appears unfavourable. Traders may consider adopting a wait-and-watch approach. Any dip towards the 25,200–25,100 support band could offer opportunities for contra trades, as the risk-reward dynamics would turn more attractive near those levels. 128401381TOP STOCK PICKs Bajaj Finance: BUY CMP Rs 1,030 | Stop loss: Rs 980 | Target Rs 1,120 The Bajaj Finance stock has resumed its positive trend post the recent corrective phase. Torrent Pharma: BUY | CMP Rs 4,070 | Stop loss: Rs 3,980 | target: Rs 4,250 The stock has been an outperformer within the pharma sector, and is on the verge of a consolidation breakout.TANMAY SHAH RESEARCH HEAD, SIHLWhere is Nifty headed this week? Technical indicators point to emerging downside pressure, suggesting that the recent rally lacks strong follow-through buying. At present, the index is finding support near its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around 25,468, which is acting as an immediate cushion. On the shortterm timeframe, momentum oscillators indicate an oversold condition, raising the possibility of a technical bounce towards the 25,700 zone in the coming sessions. On the downside, the 200- day moving average at 25,292 represents a critical medium-term support. A decisive close below this level could weaken sentiment further and open the door for a decline towards the 25,100 area, where a previous gap is placed.Trading Strategy: For the February 24 Nifty weekly expiry, traders may consider deploying an Iron Condor strategy in line with the current rangebound market conditions. This would involve selling 24,800 Put and buying 24,600 Put, along with selling 26,050 Call and buying 26,250 Call, to maintain a defined risk profile. The strategy is aimed at benefiting from time decay and is best suited if Nifty continues to trade within the 24,800–26,050 band until expiry. TOP STOCK PICKS Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles: BUY | CMP: Rs 380 | Stop loss Rs 369 | Target: Rs 395–399 After an extended correction, the stock is now trading above its key moving averages, and is showing relative strength. In this setup, a buy can be considered with an upside target of Rs 395–399, keeping a closing stop loss at Rs 369. Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories: BUY | CMP: Rs 1,268 | Stop loss: Rs 1,244 | Target: Rs 1,295–1,320. Stock is trading comfortably above its 200-day SMA and is nearing a breakout from its channel formation, supported by healthy volumes. Given this constructive setup, one may initiate long positions, with targets at Rs 1,295 and Rs 1,320, while keeping a closing stop loss at Rs 1,244.SUDEEP SHAH HEAD – TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVES RESEARCH, SBI SECURITIES Where is Nifty headed this week? Nifty enters the week on a weak footing after failing to sustain above the 26,000 mark and witnessing sharp profit booking near 26,009. The 550-point decline in the final two sessions signals clear supply at higher levels. Technically, the structure has deteriorated, as the index has slipped below its 20-day, 50-day and 100-day EMAs, with the shorter averages now sloping downward—a bearish shift in trend bias. Momentum also remains subdued, with the daily RSI slipping below its short-term average and failing to reclaim the 60 zone during the recent pullback. The pattern suggests a lower-high formation in the near term, indicating rallies may face resistance. Immediate support is placed at 25,350–25,300. A decisive break below 25,300 could extend the correction towards 25,100 and possibly 24,900. On the upside, the 25,700–25,750 zone remains a strong resistance band. Unless this hurdle is convincingly crossed, the broader bias stays cautious to negative for the week. Trading Strategies: Amid a cautious outlook, traders should refrain from over-leveraged bets, while investors should favour a buy-on-decline approach in quality names with strong technical setups. We expect the Nifty to consolidate between 25,100 and 25,800, while Bank Nifty may consolidate between 59,600 and 60,800 levels.TOP STOCK PICKS L&T: BUY CMP: Rs 4,173 | Stop loss: Rs 4,030 | Target: Rs 4,380–4,430 The stock continues to trade near its 52-week high, with the price remaining above key long-term moving averages (50 and 200 DMA), signalling structural strength in the broader trend. Short-term technical structure is also in sync with long-term charts and is displaying superior relative strength. Pricol: BUY CMP: Rs 633 | Stop loss: Rs 608 | Target: Rs 665–690. Chart shows bullish positioning, with most moving averages—across short, medium and long periods— sloping upward and price trading above them, indicating an underlying uptrend.