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Ahead of Market: 10 key factors to steer markets on Monday

1 month 2 weeks ago
Indian benchmark indices closed sharply lower on Friday, dragged down by broad-based selling across sectors. Consumer, IT, and energy stocks were among the biggest laggards.The Nifty settled at 25,471.10, down 336 points or 1.30%, while the BSE Sensex tumbled 1,048.16 points, or 1.25%, to close at 82,626.76.The volatility gauge, India VIX, ended at 11.73, down 1.53% from the previous close.Analysts’ TakeNilesh Jain, Vice President – Head of Technical & Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse, said the Nifty opened with a gap-down and slipped below its key 21-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, placed at 25,480, 25,770, and 25,690, respectively.The index is attempting to fill last week’s downside gap, and the crucial support at the 200-DMA near 25,300 is likely to be tested in the near term, Jain added.“India VIX had surged sharply earlier to around 13, and any further rise in volatility could be a cause for concern. Overall, the market structure appears sideways to weak, and pullback rallies are likely to face selling pressure as long as the Nifty remains below 25,800,” he said.European MarketsMost major European indices were trading broadly positive around 2:07 p.m. GMT (7:52 p.m. IST). Germany’s DAX was higher, while France’s CAC 40, the Stoxx 600, and the UK’s FTSE 100 were also trading in the green. Spain’s IBEX, however, was marginally lower.Tech ViewRupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said India VIX has moved back above its 200-DMA, indicating rising caution among market participants.From a technical perspective, the setup has turned relatively cautious, with the index slipping below its 20-DMA for the first time in recent sessions. He added that the Nifty has breached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upward move from 24,571 to 26,341.“With the index closing below the key support level of 25,500, the near-term bias appears weak, with potential for a decline toward 25,000 in the short term. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around 25,800,” he said.Most Active Stocks (Value)Bajaj Finance (Rs 591 crore), Infosys (Rs 377 crore), HDFC Bank (Rs 375 crore), Larsen & Toubro (Rs 222 crore), TCS (Rs 211 crore), HCL Technologies (Rs 194 crore), and Reliance Industries (Rs 144 crore) were among the most active stocks on the BSE in value terms.Most Active Stocks (Volume)SpiceJet (4.86 crore shares), Vodafone Idea (3.59 crore shares), YES Bank (78.48 lakh shares), Suzlon Energy (66.30 lakh shares), Bajaj Finance (58.42 lakh shares), Eternal (44.23 lakh shares), and Ola Electric (43.51 lakh shares) were among the most actively traded stocks in volume terms on the BSEStocks Showing Buying InterestBajaj Finance, Lenskart Solutions, Engineers India (EIL), GE Power India, Universus Photo Imagings, Repro India, Laxmi Cotspin, and Anmol India witnessed notable buying interest.52-Week High/LowA total of 83 stocks hit their 52-week highs, while 193 slipped to 52-week lows. Stocks touching fresh highs included Apex, Avanti Feeds, Bharat Forge, Eicher Motors, Jamna Auto Industries, Lenskart, and Sharda Cropchem.Stocks Seeing Selling PressureAmong large-cap names, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, and ICICI Bank saw significant selling pressure. Other laggards included SpiceJet, Hindustan Unilever, Hindalco Industries, Eternal, Adani Enterprises, Crown Lifters, Muthoot Finance, and ONGC.Market BreadthHeavyweights such as HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, and Hindustan Unilever weighed on the indices. Market breadth remained negative. Of the 4,364 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,253 advanced, 2,960 declined, and 151 remained unchanged.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

GST revamp to help cut cancer care costs

1 month 2 weeks ago
Recent changes to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) framework -- simplified tax structure, removal of tax on drugs and medical equipment and increased taxation on tobacco products -- mark an important policy shift towards making cancer care more affordable and accessible, AIIMS researchers have said.In a commentary published in Frontier, Oncologist Dr Abhishek Shankar and Scientist Dr Vaibhav Sahni from the Department of Radiation Oncology, Dr BR Ambedkar Institute Rotary Cancer Hospital, AIIMS, Delhi, noted that the reforms acknowledge the financial toxicity faced by cancer patients and attempt to address long-standing gaps in treatment affordability.The researchers mentioned that the GST council, in its 56th meeting, recommended the total exemption of 33 lifesaving drugs, including those used in cancer care, from GST altogether (erstwhile 12 per cent to now zero and three critical drugs for rare diseases and cancer from 5 per cent earlier to zero).The council has also recommended no GST application on individual health and life insurance policies (from 18 per cent previously).An important aspect of this policy reform is that it includes certain patented drugs with no generic alternatives, they said.In another significant step, the authors stated that the council has also increased the tax slab for tobacco products to 40 per cent, which is the highest for any class of goods in the country. Tobacco and products related to it shall, however, remain under the 28 per cent tax slab till loans and compensation cess have been paid."Regardless, the new taxation slab on health-harming products is a step in the right direction and provides increased opportunity to redirect the generated revenue for funding cancer care in the country."There is evidence in literature which supports the fact that tobacco taxation leads to improved health outcomes, particularly in economically disadvantaged sections of society," the researchers said.A subnational study using the extended-cost effectiveness model across four Indian states found that a price increase of Rs 10 per cigarette with an ad valorem of 10 per cent led to 65,762 individuals from the top income bracket and 485,725 individuals from the bottom income bracket quitting smoking. This adjustment led to the prevention of 665,000 mortalities, a gain of 11.9 million years of life, and over USD 1.96 trillion in averted treatment costs.Additionally, it led to the saving of over USD 762.5 million for AB-PMJAY (Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana), which is India's universal health coverage scheme. The modelling considered only the coverage for those below the poverty line, as noted by the researchers.Recent literature suggests that a 50 per cent hike in tobacco tax stands to avert 1.8 million mortalities while saving, over the span of a decade, Rs 11.9 trillion. It has also acknowledged that affordability for cigarettes has either remained neutral or improved, and that for smokeless tobacco, it has improved in India over a period of time. Therefore, increasing the tax slab for these is a welcome step, the researchers underlined.Dr Shankar, Assistant Professor in the Department of Radiation Oncology at AIIMS, Delhi, said, "The complete removal of GST on several life-saving cancer drugs and rare disease therapies, along with reductions on medical equipment and diagnostics, will significantly lower out-of-pocket expenditure for patients, provided the benefits are fully passed on by manufacturers." Authors added that the exemption of health and life insurance from GST could further reduce financial barriers to care, especially for middle- and lower-income households.Dr Shankar and Dr Sahni also highlighted the public health importance of raising GST on tobacco products, calling it a positive step toward reducing future cancer burden while generating revenue that could be redirected into cancer care and prevention.However, they cautioned that effective implementation, timely tax refunds to manufacturers, and ongoing monitoring will be crucial to ensure these reforms translate into real-world gains for patients and the healthcare system."Overall, these economic policy changes should be regarded as steps in making cancer care more affordable and accessible, as well as ones which promote health in society. The key takeaways from these reforms in terms of healthcare involve a simplified tax structure, removal of tax on drugs and medical equipment and increased taxation on tobacco products," the researchers said.

Can Sensex, Nifty snap 2-day fall? 7 factors that could decide market mood this week

1 month 2 weeks ago
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended the week on a bearish note, closing over a percent lower each as a deepening selloff in IT stocks rattled investor sentiment amid mounting fears of AI-led disruption. Further, stronger-than-expected jobs data for January dampened hopes of a US Fed interest rate cut.Here are 7 factors that could decide market action in the coming week:1.) Infosys, Wipro ADRs rebound - After a brutal two-day selloff that saw Infosys and Wipro ADRs plunge as much as 14.5%, Friday’s session brought a much-needed breather. Bargain hunting kicked in at lower levels, sparking a sharp rebound as Infosys climbed 3% while Wipro gained 4%—helping both stocks close the week on a far stronger note. International brokerage firm JP Morgan has a message for panic-stricken investors: IT services firms are the indispensable "plumbers of the tech world" and their dividend yields have now hit levels last seen only during the global financial crisis and COVID-19.As Rs 5.7 lakh crore evaporates from the sector in just eight trading sessions and the Nifty IT index crashes 19% in the short span, the Wall Street giant is turning contrarian, declaring "deep value" buying opportunities in bloodied bellwethers Infosys and TCS.2.) US CPI numbers lift rate cut bets - U.S. inflation data lifted expectations of monetary easing after the Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-on-year, slightly below economists’ estimates of 2.5%, according to a poll by Reuters. The softer print boosted market bets that the Federal Reserve could deliver at least two rate cuts this year.The moderation in overall inflation drew a positive response from the White House, with a spokesperson saying on social media that America’s economy could gain further momentum through long-awaited interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Even so, concerns over the labour market and rising living costs continue to weigh on public sentiment, with many Americans expressing unease about economic conditions and voicing dissatisfaction with Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.3.) How FIIs navigate AI-led disruption fears - VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited FIIs remained net sellers to the tune of Rs 1,374 crore for the month so far. The overall figure was skewed by a sharp selloff of Rs 7,395 crore on February 13, when the Nifty fell 336 points amid heavy selling in IT stocks following the Anthropic-related shock, with the IT index plunging 8.2% during the week ended February 13.Vijayakumar added that market sentiment has strengthened after the fiscally prudent and growth-oriented 2026 Budget and the India–US trade agreement, with large-cap valuations appearing fair given improving corporate earnings prospects for FY27. He expects FIIs to turn buyers once volatility in the IT sector subsides, adding that any extended unwinding of the AI trade in the US could further encourage foreign flows into India, which he described as a non-AI market.4.) Rupee vs Dollar - The Indian rupee closed at 90.64 per U.S. dollar, little changed from its previous close of 90.59. A strengthening U.S. dollar, which has risen for a third straight session to 96.95 is generally negative for equities as it can trigger foreign fund outflows from emerging markets like India toward safer assets in the United States.“USD/INR remains in a short-term corrective consolidation after rejecting recent highs but continues to trade comfortably above rising channel support near 90.20–90.40. The 90.00 zone remains the structural pivot; as long as this base is defended, the broader upward bias remains intact. A phase of consolidation appears likely before a renewed attempt toward 91.80–92.50, which in turn continues to provide underlying support to domestic bullion pricing dynamics,” Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money said.5.) Technicals flashing weakness - The Nifty has broken decisively below its recent consolidation range, closing under 25,500 after testing lower levels and forming a strong bearish candle amid rising downside momentum, largely led by weakness in IT stocks. The index is now hovering near a critical support zone of 25,400–25,300, which coincides with the 200-DMA and 200-EMA cluster, while a deeper safety net is seen around 25,200–25,000, says Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,550–25,600, near the 20-SMA and a previous support area. A sustained move above 25,700–25,800 will be required to signal stabilization and potentially pave the way toward 26,000, where strong overhead supply remains.As long as 25,300 holds on a closing basis, the broader structural uptrend stays technically intact. However, a decisive breach below this level could trigger sharper downside pressure toward lower supports. Options data suggests a bearish bias, with aggressive call writing at higher strikes and fresh put buildup at lower levels. The near-term trading range is seen between 25,200 and 25,700, with a strategy leaning toward selective dip buying at strong support zones while closely tracking global cues and shifts in open interest.6.) US GDP data next week - Market participants will closely track the upcoming minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, along with U.S. GDP data for the October–December quarter, both due next week. These releases are expected to offer clearer signals on the central bank’s policy trajectory and the near-term outlook for interest rates.For Indian markets, such global cues carry added weight, particularly amid volatile Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) flows. While there were early indications of a pickup in inflows, sentiment turned cautious after sharp selling on the final trading day of the week during a global technology-led rout.7.) Geopolitical tensions - The U.S. military is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if US President Donald Trump authorises military action, Reuters reported, citing two officials, signalling the risk of a far more serious escalation between the two countries. The disclosure has raised the stakes for ongoing diplomacy, even as U.S. and Iranian representatives recently met in Oman in an effort to revive talks over Tehran’s nuclear programme after a buildup of American forces in the region heightened tensions. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has begun deploying an additional aircraft carrier to the Middle East, along with thousands of troops, fighter aircraft and guided-missile destroyers, strengthening both offensive and defensive military capabilities.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Gunmen kill at least 32 in Nigeria attacks

1 month 2 weeks ago
At least 32 people have been killed after gunmen launched simultaneous attacks on three communities in the north-central region of Nigeria, the police and a resident said Saturday.The dawn raid were targeted on the communities of Tunga-Makeri, Konkoso, and Pissa, in the Borgu area of Niger state.Niger State police spokesman Wasiu Abiodun said six people died in the attack on Tunga-Makeri, adding that a "yet to be ascertained number of persons were abducted." Abiodun confirmed that the Konkoso community was attacked, but provided no further details. "Joint security teams have been mobilised to the scene for assessment and effort to rescue the victims is ongoing," he said.Abdullahi Adamu, a resident of Konkoso, said 26 people were killed in the attack on his community. "They were operating freely without the presence of any security," he said.Northern Nigeria is in the grip of a complex security crisis featuring both Islamic militants and armed gangs kidnapping people for ransom.Saturday's attacks follow a deadly attack earlier this month in neighbouring Kwara State that killed 162 people.In the past few months, Nigeria has been in the crosshairs of the US government, which has accused the Nigerian authorities of not protecting Christians, although attacks affect both Christians and Muslims.The accusation has resulted in a security partnership between both countries that has involved US strikes targeting armed groups in Nigerian territories in December, as well as presence of a team of US military in the West African country.
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1 hour 21 minutes ago
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