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As India’s investing landscape undergoes a structural shift, the next phase of growth is increasingly being driven by investors from beyond the top cities.In an interaction with Kshitij Anand of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Nilesh D. Naik, Head of Investment Products at Share.Market, highlighted how the rise of ‘Bharat’—spanning tier II, tier III, and smaller towns—is reshaping the wealth management ecosystem.With deeper digital penetration and growing participation from B30 cities, he believes this segment will be instrumental in expanding India’s investor base from around 60 million to nearly 200 million over the next decade, while also redefining how platforms approach product design, education, and investor behaviour. Edited Excerpts –Kshitij Anand: Now that the access problem has been solved by digital apps, what specific psychological barriers are preventing retail investors from making those intelligent decisions?Nilesh D. Naik: You are right— from an access perspective, the problem has largely been solved over the last five to six years. But one of the key challenges today is the complexity involved in starting the investing journey. And I think that is where platforms need to spend a lot of time.For example, for people who have been investing in mutual funds, it may not be that difficult— mutual funds may come across as a very simple product.But for a first-time investor, with thousands of products available, how do you zero down on the right one? That remains a big challenge. Going forward, you will see a lot of platforms focusing on this area in a big way.Kshitij Anand: And how can a retail investor distinguish between a fund that is genuinely consistent and one that is simply riding a temporary market tailwind?Nilesh D. Naik: Yes, this is an interesting question and one of the key issues that has been widely discussed in the industry. The general tendency of customers is to go by performance— they look at three-year or one-year performance and invest accordingly.At least at PhonePe, we have tried to address this issue by not focusing too much on performance, but by highlighting the consistency of the product. When I say consistency, there are complex concepts like rolling returns and so on.We try to simplify these, do the heavy lifting at our end, and present a simple metric that helps customers see whether the product has been consistent over the long term in relative terms, compared to other schemes in the category.I think it is very important to shift the focus away from point-to-point returns, which are highly cyclical— not just at the market level, but even at the relative performance level. So yes, this is a key area to focus on.Kshitij Anand: And at PhonePe, you very much believe in the Bharat story. So, how is that evolving at PhonePe and in the wealth management space?Nilesh D. Naik: Yes, the strength of PhonePe is our distribution reach, and we have a very strong presence in tier II, tier III cities and beyond. Just to share some numbers with you—if you look at the mutual fund customers that we have, more than two-thirds of them are from B30 cities, beyond the top 30, as per the AMFI definition.And not just from a customer perspective, but even from an AUM perspective, this is very different from the industry numbers, where it is actually the other way around, at least in terms of assets. So, the participation that we have seen is very encouraging, and it motivates us to build more for that cohort.That is going to be the growth engine for the industry as well, in terms of moving from a 60 million customer base to, let us say, 200 million over the next decade or so.Kshitij Anand: And let me also get your perspective on this—in a market that is prone to sudden volatility, how can platforms move beyond just providing data and actually help engineer better investor behaviour?Nilesh D. Naik: Yes, it does not start with volatility. What you need to do is ensure that when the customer or investor is investing, at that stage itself, you offer the right kind of product mix. That will take away half the problem because when you invest in the wrong product, the volatility tends to be much higher.A classic example today is investors who have invested in small caps. For a first-time investor, the kind of volatility experienced there is very different from someone who started with a large-cap, index, or hybrid product.So, retaining a customer who has invested in core products is relatively easier compared to someone investing in small-cap or thematic products.However, when such situations arise, there cannot be a single solution that addresses the entire problem. Continuous education is very important. Having the right contextual education within the app is critical. The nudges you give to customers—guiding them on how certain actions may work against them—are also very important. And of course, customers learn through experience.No matter how much we educate them, experience cannot be replaced. The good thing is that many of these customers are in their 20s, which means over the next three to four years, if they continue investing, they will develop their own learning—and that is the best teacher.Kshitij Anand: Staying with the Bharat story, as investors spread into tier II and tier III cities, how do we ensure that intelligence is simplified enough to be accessible to first-time investors?Nilesh D. Naik: There are different ways to do this, but I can share what we have done at PhonePe Wealth to help customers. When it comes to shortlisting or identifying funds, there are three core parameters that we focus on.The first is the consistency of the fund’s performance. The second is risk. And the third is whether there is a method behind that performance. By method, I mean the style of the fund manager and how the product is managed.We have launched an interesting tool called CRISP, which stands for Consistency, Risk, and Investment Style of Portfolio. We understand that these are relatively complex concepts, so we simplify them by categorising factors such as consistency into high, medium, or low; and risk into acceptable or high levels, so that investors can make informed decisions.Lastly, we also explain how the product is managed—whether it follows a quality, value, or momentum style—so that customers can create the right mix of funds that complement each other.However, even with simplification, education remains critical. We are focusing a lot on educating customers about these concepts in a simple and accessible manner.Kshitij Anand: Do you feel there is any single mistake that investors usually make when selecting a fund or investing?Nilesh D. Naik: Two things I would highlight here. One is, of course, investing based on past performance. In fact, we have done several studies wherein, if you look at, say, the previous three-year ranking of funds in a category and compare it with the next three years—for example, 2019 to 2022 versus 2022 to 2025—and then look at the ranks, the rank correlation is actually close to zero.This means there is absolutely no correlation between the two, which tells you that investing based on past performance does not work. However, it is a common behaviour among customers to look at returns and invest, and this is where one of the biggest mistakes comes from the customer side.The second is the absolute lack of planning. It is like someone tells me that this is a good fund, and I invest without thinking about why I am investing or what my framework should be.Every investor, no matter how small the investment, needs a framework that they can refer back to, especially during times when markets are highly volatile. Otherwise, you will keep debating whether to add more equity or redeem. Having a framework helps.When I say framework, it means understanding that your investment is long term and defining the level of downside risk you can tolerate. For example, based on recent data, markets can fall by as much as 40% in a worst-case scenario.But if, as an investor, I cannot tolerate more than a 20% downside, then I would probably allocate 50–60% to equity and the rest to fixed income products, gold, etc. Now, whenever something happens in the market, you can go back to that asset allocation framework and assess whether you are still aligned with your plan.It is a very simple concept, and there can be many variations of it. But having a proper plan is extremely important, and this is something that is missing for most investors.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

India’s metabolic therapy landscape is undergoing a structural shift following the patent expiry of semaglutide, triggering a rapid transition from a premium, innovator-led market to a highly competitive, volume-driven segment. Historically constrained by high prices and limited access, the category is now witnessing a sharp inflection in demand, supported by significant price erosion of nearly 85–90% and a surge in product launches.The addressable opportunity remains substantial. With an estimated 75–80 million obese individuals and a large proportion suffering from co-morbid conditions, the need for structured obesity management is becoming increasingly evident. GLP-1 penetration, which remained low due to patent protection, is now expected to rise meaningfully as affordability improves and distribution expands. Over the next 3–5 years, the market could scale to INR34–67 billion, driven by rising patient adoption and chronic therapy demand.A key growth driver is the expanding prescriber base. While endocrinologists and diabetologists remain primary stakeholders, adoption is increasingly being supported by cardiologists, gastroenterologists, gynaecologists, and other specialists due to the multi-system impact of obesity and metabolic disorders. This broadening ecosystem is expected to accelerate awareness, referrals, and prescription volumes, reinforcing long-term demand visibility.However, the sector faces structural challenges. The entry of over 10–15 players has intensified competition, leading to rapid market fragmentation and pricing pressures. Despite a large volume opportunity, individual revenue gains are likely to remain modest, with low single-digit contribution to overall sales for most participants. Limited prescription bandwidth—where physicians typically engage with only a handful of brands—further constrains market share potential, increasing the need for aggressive marketing and elevating promotional costs.Pricing dynamics also reflect a clear stratification, with premium, mid-tier, and mass-market strategies co-existing. While this enhances accessibility, it accelerates commoditisation, weighing on margins across the value chain. Additionally, companies risk diverting focus from established portfolios amid heightened competition in this segment.An emerging structural trend is the rising preference for next-generation therapies. Even as semaglutide drives awareness and category expansion, newer molecules with superior efficacy are witnessing faster uptake and stronger physician preference, indicating a potential shift in long-term market leadership.Overall, the GLP-1 segment in India presents a compelling volume-led growth opportunity underpinned by strong demand fundamentals. However, the combination of pricing pressure, intense competition, and limited differentiation suggests that value capture may remain constrained, making scale and execution critical in navigating this evolving landscape.Ajanta Pharma: Buy| Target Rs 3400Ajanta Pharma is preparing to launch generic semaglutide post patent expiry of Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic/Wegovy in India, while continuing to expand its portfolio in high-growth segments such as dermatology, pain management, and nephrology. Ajanta Pharma’s long-term growth is driven by its expanding presence in branded generics across India, US, Africa, and Asia, with a focus on chronic therapies and new launches supporting sustained demand and deeper penetration in high-growth markets. Management expects mid-teens revenue growth with EBITDA margins around 27%, supported by expansion in Asia and Africa, a strong US product pipeline, and strategic addition of medical representatives to drive execution.Sun Pharma: Buy| Target Rs 1940Sun Pharma's Innovation momentum remains a key growth pillar, with specialty and novel therapies scaling up meaningfully. USD1b+ innovative sales (ex-milestones) provide resilience against US pricing pressure, while strong domestic formulation execution, consistent market share gains, and ROW/EM stability underpin diversified, sustainable growth drivers. In 3QFY26, SUNP delivered in-line adjusted revenues and EBITDA 6% ahead of estimates, supported by robust DF growth and favorable mix. Margin expansion reflected execution strength, partly offset by continued weakness in US generics due to regulatory headwinds at select sites. We estimate EM+ROW revenues to reach INR230b over FY25-28 at 12% CAGR, while specialty sales grow 11% CAGR to USD1.7b. Sustained DF outperformance, rising innovative R&D intensity, and steady pipeline launches support earnings visibility.(The author is Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research - Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services) (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Friday they were ready to intervene militarily if other countries joined the United States and Israel in their war against Iran, or if the Red Sea was used to launch attacks on the Islamic Republic."We confirm that our fingers are on the trigger for direct military intervention" if any ‌new alliances ⁠join Washington ⁠and Israel against Iran and its allies, or if the Red Sea is used for "hostile operations" against Iran, the group's military spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a televised speech.You may follow our coverage of the West Asia war hereSaree also said the Houthis were prepared to act if what he called the escalation against Iran and the "axis of resistance" continued, but did not say what form any intervention would take.The warning raises the prospect of a broader ⁠regional confrontation, particularly given ‌the Houthis' ability to strike targets far beyond Yemen and disrupt shipping lanes around the Arabian Peninsula. Iran's Shi'ite allies in Lebanon and ⁠Iraq have already joined the war in the region triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran. The Houthis had not until now announced any direct entry into the war, despite their military capabilities and geographic position overlooking the Red Sea.In his speech, Saree also said the group would not allow the Red Sea to be used to carry out "hostile operations" against Iran or any Muslim country. He warned against any further tightening of ‌what he described as "the blockade on Yemen."Saree called for an immediate halt to U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and allied countries, including Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Iraq, ⁠and urged the implementation of the Gaza ceasefire agreement.Also read: Elon Musk joins PM Modi and Trump's call on Iran conflict in a rare wartime moveAfter the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Palestinian militant group Hamas triggered the war in Gaza, the Houthis began attacking international shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were acting in support of Palestinians.The group also launched drones and missiles towards Israel, drawing retaliatory airstrikes from Israel and U.S. attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen.The Houthis halted those attacks after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in October 2025.

Mumbai: The Indian rupee fell to a record on Friday, breaching the 94-per-dollar mark for the first time and teetering on the brink of 95, as surging crude oil prices weighed on the currency over fears that the Gulf war shows little sign of ending soon. Indian equities also got mauled-indices tumbled over 2% on Friday, marking a fifth consecutive week of declines-the longest losing bout since August-as investors remained wary despite US President Donald Trump extending the pause on attacks on Iran's power plants by 10 days. Weak global cues and concerns over oil prices weighed on sentiment, with analysts warning of further near-term declines. In the event of the conflict continuing to rage unchecked amid subdued central bank intervention, some traders are expecting the Indian currency to sink even further. The rupee closed at 94.81 to the dollar on Friday, weakening 84 paise from its previous close of 93.97. The rupee weakened to 94.85 at its lowest on Friday and has declined over 3.5% this month, LSEG data showed. Brent crude oil prices rose by $1.87, or 1.73%, to $109.88 a barrel. While state-run banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the central bank, the intervention was muted, traders said. 129857252 Strait Closure Taking Toll That makes the rupee vulnerable to further depreciation, with many traders incorporating levels as weak as 97 per dollar into their forecasts. "Nothing really changes until the Strait of Hormuz opens up," said Anindya Banerjee, head of commodity and currency at Kotak Securities. "Even if the intensity of the war eases a bit, as long as there's still friction around the strait and oil is hovering near $115, the rupee could easily drift towards the 96 to 97 per dollar range." The NSE Nifty closed at 22,819.60, down 486.85 points or 2.1%, while the BSE Sensex ended at 73,583.22, falling 1,690.23 points or 2.3%. Both indices declined 1.3% over the past week. The Volatility Index (VIX) urged 8.7% to a four-year high of 26.8, reflecting heightened near-term risk expectations.